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Please help with experiment.
Old 10-24-2007, 10:46 PM   #1
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Please help with experiment.

I read a book a while ago called "The Wisdom of Crowds". The author pointed out several examples where the averaged opinions of a large group of people (regardless of experience with the topic) is nearly always more accurate than that of an expert.

I haven't got an expert to compare our group's prediction with, but I think that it will be interesting to see how accurate we are, and perhaps if we prove to be proficient at this, then maybe we collectively look at a stock or two.

With that in mind, I ask that you assist in an experiment where everyone predicts what the price of gold will close at in 6 months from today, Apr.24, 2008. I'll average any predictions up to Nov.24 and post them then. On Apr. 24, 2008 I'll post how we did.

Please don't post anything but your price prediction (no reasons or opinions), just a price.

The official price at posting time today according to Kitco - Gold Precious Metals - Buy Gold Sell Gold, Silver, Platinum - Charts, Graphs, Prices, Quotes, Gold Stocks, Mining Stocks, bullion dealers was $763.40.

My crystal ball says $804.10
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Old 10-24-2007, 10:53 PM   #2
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Old 10-25-2007, 01:05 AM   #3
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Old 10-25-2007, 01:07 AM   #4
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Old 10-25-2007, 01:36 AM   #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Grizz View Post
I read a book a while ago called "The Wisdom of Crowds". The author pointed out several examples where the averaged opinions of a large group of people (regardless of experience with the topic) is nearly always more accurate than that of an expert.
I believe this is only said to be true if the guessers are blind to the others' opinions.
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Old 10-25-2007, 03:04 AM   #6
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I believe this is only said to be true if the guessers are blind to the others' opinions.
I bid $4.53 - do I win the prize
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Old 10-25-2007, 03:48 AM   #7
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Old 10-25-2007, 05:16 AM   #8
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Old 10-25-2007, 05:54 AM   #9
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Old 10-25-2007, 08:10 AM   #10
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Old 10-25-2007, 08:29 AM   #11
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Old 10-25-2007, 09:27 AM   #12
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I believe this is only said to be true if the guessers are blind to the others' opinions.
You're right, that is the ideal situation. I've asked that reasons and opinions not be included in order to keep the experiment as "true" as possible. Seeing others #'s may skew the outcome, but hey, maybe it won't.

If we are way off the mark then if nothing else, we can consider it to be all in fun and forever bow down, salute, or curtsy when we see a post from the member with the closest prediction.
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Old 10-25-2007, 09:40 AM   #13
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Old 10-25-2007, 09:42 AM   #14
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Old 10-25-2007, 10:27 AM   #15
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Gold will be worthless 6 months from now. It really has no intrinsic value other than perhaps for some specialized electronic applications.

A process to make it out of discarded Starbucks cups will be found. Since Starbucks cups are so plentiful there will be an excess supply of gold and you will have to pay "that guy" to haul it away.

So my prediction is negative $10.00 an once
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Old 10-25-2007, 10:33 AM   #16
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$763.40
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Old 10-25-2007, 10:45 AM   #17
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Old 10-25-2007, 11:00 AM   #18
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Old 10-25-2007, 11:06 AM   #19
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Old 10-25-2007, 11:45 AM   #20
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$763.40
Beat me to it. Persistence is still the best predictor.
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