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Old 09-12-2017, 10:19 AM   #2241
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I believe interest rates are going to go up.... but I have believed that for at least 5 years!!!

The thing is I do not see any reason that they will go up more than a long term trend of say 3% to 4% for 10 year treasuries... therefore I do not see much downward pressure on prices... or at least any shock except for an individual company or industry...
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Old 09-12-2017, 10:33 AM   #2242
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I feel the same FWIW. And some prices of preferreds as mentioned before are not out of whack with relationship to normalized yields. Take RNR-C. I bought it this week at $25.28... It went to market at $25 in 2004... Way before Fed intervention. If 6.2% was good in 2004, 6.0% is even better today.
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Old 09-12-2017, 10:45 AM   #2243
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While I am not nearly as sure as I was in 2007 that a very major economic downturn is upon us, when I sold all my stocks, I am for the first time in a long while concerned enough that I am bringing my common stock allocation down to 25 percent - I have been significantly over that for the past years, and my preferred allocation to 40% of my preferred funding level - 4 % of my total portfolio --- I will be selling my PSAPRD preferred, which has given me a few nice dividends and a nice runup from 21 when I purchased it, I had previously sold my Alabama Power preferred as I thought that was to be called and the sales price nearly covered all the dividends I expected.

The bond portion of my portfolio is going to continue to be 5 year US Treasuries and I will continue to roll them as they mature into another 5 year treasury unless other more interesting investments raise their head.
RM, thanks for your interesting perspective on the market and I too am getting a bit nervous about the state of the market and the low interest rate environment.

My question to you, if you don't mind sharing, is what else are you investing in (besides treasuries) since your equity allocation is only 25%?
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Old 09-12-2017, 08:03 PM   #2244
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RM, thanks for your interesting perspective on the market and I too am getting a bit nervous about the state of the market and the low interest rate environment.

My question to you, if you don't mind sharing, is what else are you investing in (besides treasuries) since your equity allocation is only 25%?
At present my equity allocation is not at 25% it is above 35% but I am reviewing which are the best stock components to keep and will be selling over the next couple of weeks, but in the end my portfolio for at least the next year will be around 25% common stocks 50% 5 year treasury ladder portfolio 4 percent preferred stocks, my 5% withdrawal portfolio, 8 percent gold and the remainder I have an an annuity - I consider the value invested as part of my long term bonds ó that I have had since 2007 that goes up a fixed 4% a year, ---a non-cola pension plan and my wifeís social securityó which I do not consider for portfolio purposes. While I like the Harry Browne portfolio, I just canít get myself to get to 25% gold.
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Old 09-14-2017, 01:24 PM   #2245
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Dang - CNLPL traded 215 shares today @ $53.88.

I was excited seeing it, as I had a GTC for 200 shares at $53.88, but unfortunately, my bid did not fill.

Someone scooped me that time. Probably Mulligan......
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Old 09-14-2017, 01:30 PM   #2246
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Nope wasnt me! But I developed a "bad wing" and cant golf for a few days, so I had to do something...Sold off my KTH for a quick 55 cent profit... Couldnt help myself, didnt want to...Oh well. I saw CNTHP spiked...And no I wont sell those no matter what....Or at least I hope I never will!
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Old 09-14-2017, 01:32 PM   #2247
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Dang - CNLPL traded 215 shares today @ $53.88.

I was excited seeing it, as I had a GTC for 200 shares at $53.88, but unfortunately, my bid did not fill.

Someone scooped me that time. Probably Mulligan......

There were 250 shares of CNTHP that sold for $58.25.... I had an order for that many shares at that price to sell.... but DANG... they were not my shares!!! Coulda flipped to one of the others....
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Old 09-14-2017, 01:37 PM   #2248
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There were 250 shares of CNTHP that sold for $58.25.... I had an order for that many shares at that price to sell.... but DANG... they were not my shares!!! Coulda flipped to one of the others....


This happens frequently in illiquids getting screwed. I have even been jumped and shares sold to lower bidders...Did you know brokerages will have contracts to get paid to hold back sells and buys and allow front running? All legal... The little guy is always at the end of the pig trough.
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Old 09-14-2017, 02:07 PM   #2249
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Made an homage trade for Running Man.... 400 shares of KYN-F at $25.26 today... 3% YTM for 2.5 years and return of money aint so bad... Especially if his thesis proves true... If I had a dozen opportunities to invest in such issues as KYN-F with about 2.5 yr maturities I wouldnt be upset if all my money were in these types.
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Old 09-14-2017, 02:10 PM   #2250
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Coolius, it is so quiet you probably haven't even noticed...But big dog FIISO went exD for us yesterday...
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Old 09-14-2017, 03:35 PM   #2251
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Mulligan, nope, I noticed. My broker has a page with upcoming dividends on holdings, so yesterday the screen showed the FIISO XD.

Good buys for both of us, wish we could get more, but I've had a GTC at $106 for many weeks now, no movement whatsoever.

What do you think of the new Urstadt Preferred? Temp symbol URRDP, 6.25% coupon IIRC. I currently own UBP-F which will be called as stated when they announced this new issue, so looking for a replacement.
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Old 09-14-2017, 05:13 PM   #2252
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I like the company...I dont like the yield...Shocking huh? If one wants 6% plus yield I suspect it will be as good as long as it is outstanding...Which should be forever... The question is will 6% be ok if price sinks to $21-22? Because that is where it will go immediately if 10 yr ever creeps toward 3%. We all look at things from different perspectives . I have my pension, so I can be less yield hungry if I want...Hence the KYN-F purchase today. Or all the other term dated issues I own....But I also own BRG-C and ABRN. Go figure...I cant....But I bought them.
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Old 09-14-2017, 05:29 PM   #2253
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My projections call for a minimum portfolio return of 5% to ensure I can meet living expenses and allow for modest inflation.

So URRDP yielding 6.25% is sufficient for my requirements, and the important factor is the stability and dependability of the income stream.
That will kick the can down the road for at least 5 years.

If I can get it at or below par, I'm going for a starter position.
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Old 09-14-2017, 08:09 PM   #2254
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Well the here is something interesting.... 7.125% UBP-F was issued in Oct. 2012 when 10 year treasury was 1.75%... 6.25% UBP-G went to market with 10 year around 2.2%... UBP is not appreciably different now than then financially. The yield chase craze is wild now...The safety of payment is fine. The protection of capital is not....Its the world we live in now...
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Old 09-15-2017, 11:05 AM   #2255
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OK.... this system is more rigged than I thought....

I had a bid for 25.85.... so a sale occurs at 25.851 and the next is at 25.86... only a hundred shares, but if a computer is doing this for the broker that is a buck they made doing nothing but jumping in front of a real bid...

Do this millions of times and you can make real money....
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Old 09-15-2017, 02:49 PM   #2256
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Texas, the brokerages have a kick back agreement with the whole sellers they send the orders to. They can be sent to different whole sellers who of course may have other agreements with computer bot people who intercept orders. Of course the brokerages claim these "rebates" help them offer lower discount sell order prices...Ya ok....whatever....
Sold off my CRLKP, should have got an exD this week pocket but who knows...Bastards at SP Parking are totally unhelpful about providing any info on this issue they are in charge of paying. I dont mind dark, but not pitch dark and arrogance. Im done with it....Used that cash,divi cash and leftover KTH proceeds for these purchases today... Bought 200 of HGH at $30.38.... 3.25% YTC for 4.5 yrs and lower investment grade paper. Not bad for a safe shorter term issue. It has a juicy huge kicker with Libor in 2022 to incentivize call. If they dont I will take the higher float yield....Or sell if it spikes again in a few months if it happens... Bought 200 of LXP-C at $25.40. Basically at par 6.5% yield allowing for accrued divi...I was surprised to find out this issue has become investment grade. LXP has come quite a ways in improving its finances the past few years. And last but not least overpaid to snag 200 more AILLL at $26.95.... Just keep adding here... Too many other people have bought in and about killed the trading float anymore.
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Old 09-15-2017, 03:01 PM   #2257
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Texas, the brokerages have a kick back agreement with the whole sellers they send the orders to. They can be sent to different whole sellers who of course may have other agreements with computer bot people who intercept orders. Of course the brokerages claim these "rebates" help them offer lower discount sell order prices...Ya ok....whatever....
Sold off my CRLKP, should have got an exD this week pocket but who knows...Bastards at SP Parking are totally unhelpful about providing any info on this issue they are in charge of paying. I dont mind dark, but not pitch dark and arrogance. Im done with it....Used that cash,divi cash and leftover KTH proceeds for these purchases today... Bought 200 of HGH at $30.38.... 3.25% YTC for 4.5 yrs and lower investment grade paper. Not bad for a safe shorter term issue. It has a juicy huge kicker with Libor in 2022 to incentivize call. If they dont I will take the higher float yield....Or sell if it spikes again in a few months if it happens... Bought 200 of LXP-C at $25.40. Basically at par 6.5% yield allowing for accrued divi...I was surprised to find out this issue has become investment grade. LXP has come quite a ways in improving its finances the past few years. And last but not least overpaid to snag 200 more AILLL at $26.95.... Just keep adding here... Too many other people have bought in and about killed the trading float anymore.

Where do you see LXP-C as investment grade? That is a decent yield for one...
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Old 09-15-2017, 03:10 PM   #2258
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Where do you see LXP-C as investment grade? That is a decent yield for one...


I had no idea either as I havent looked at it in 3-4 years. Its a busted convertible so call will never be an issue. I got the scoop from this article. I still didnt believe it but he was right. I went to Moodys and it has been investment grade since 2016 anyways.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/410...ock-good-value

New York, May 26, 2016 -- Moody's Investors Service ("Moody's) has affirmed Lexington Realty Trust's ("LXP") Baa2 senior unsecured rating. The outlook is stable.

The following ratings were affirmed with a stable outlook:

Lexington Realty Trust -- senior unsecured debt at Baa2; issuer rating at Baa2; senior unsecured debt shelf at (P)Baa2; subordinated shelf at (P)Baa3; preferred stock shelf at (P)Baa3.

RATINGS RATIONALE
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Old 09-15-2017, 06:27 PM   #2259
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As we have heard, it is official now, TCF-B called. Received an email from Fidelity which stated:

CUSIP: 872277207
Description: TCF FINL CORP DEL DEP SHS REP SR A 7.50000% PFD
Rate: 0.000%
Maturity Date:
Redemption Price: 25.00
Call Date: 2017-10-16
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Old 09-15-2017, 07:12 PM   #2260
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Made an homage trade for Running Man.... 400 shares of KYN-F at $25.26 today... 3% YTM for 2.5 years and return of money aint so bad... Especially if his thesis proves true... If I had a dozen opportunities to invest in such issues as KYN-F with about 2.5 yr maturities I wouldnt be upset if all my money were in these types.
I am actually hoping my thesis is not correct, but if it is I would expect that in the next few months we will see the 30 year bond with a 4 - 4.5% yield. Sold portfolio positions to get closer to the 25% and 4% preferred down today, the Monmouth Realty, PG, D, TGT. Was going to sell 1/2 of my position in WFC-L but just couldn't get myself to pull the trigger......
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