Running_Man
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
- Joined
- Sep 25, 2006
- Messages
- 2,844
Anybody own any issues that got taken behind the woodshed for a beating? I actually am up for the week. Unloading some earlier in week and selling some AILLL into a high bid along with a few hundred of my water preferred at a nice purchase profit. Outside of my Amerens my largest individual positions by far is MHNB and WFC-J. Bought WFC-J several times as it traded to $26.77 and eventually loaded up hard on it. Pretty self apparent why I bought an extensive amount of those two issues. Still hanging on to near 15% gains and that is my goal to keep it until the new year.
Well WFCPL certainly was brutalized this week, though I am still above water on this issue. There is certainly protection against rising rates with the WFC-J and that looks like a good move along with MNR-B instead of the newly issued “C”.
I was looking at Net Present Value of the WFCPL since there is more likely to be a long stream of payments for years as compared to the WFC-J as an offset to the better capital preservation that WFC-J holds over WFCPL. As of this moment you can buy a 30 year Wells Fargo Bond for a yield of 4.45 percent. This is after the interest rate decline of this past week.
If you assume the WFCPL pays for 30 years and then is converted at the 1300 as Wells Fargo stock finally gets to the conversion price after 30 years the net present value utilizing the Wells Fargo 30 year bond as the discounting interest rate is $1,566 per share. Changing the years to conversion does not considerably alter the value at 20 years the NPV is $1,492. Adjusting value for a 2 percent increase in interest rate (to 6.45% discount rate) in the near term future the NPV at 30 years is $1,171 ($1,180 for 20 years). The low price on Friday was 1192.
At the current price the preferred is offering a two percent premium over the bonds for taking the risk of being lower in the claim of assets of Wells Fargo (45 percent more income). However I think this past week has actually lowered the risk of that type of event. So while the risk of interest rates rising are greater than a year ago, the value of WFCPL is compensating well for this risk in my mind.
Watching carefully over the next week if there is a continuation of the interest rate effects the WFC-J is going to offer strong protection on your capital, though offset by reinvestment risk of being called in 14 months should interest rates reverse course. So understanding the risk you want to take with a preferred is imperative.
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