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PUTS and CALLS
Old 08-18-2018, 08:43 PM   #1
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PUTS and CALLS

For the limited number of us who might trade options. A place to insert your ideas either for or against. Include your strike, duration, delta and exactly what you are doing regarding naked options, spreads or ...?

Right now the market (Aug 2018) looks like it's going to take a rest after nearly finishing the quarterly reporting. The news was 80% good with a few leaders stumbling NFLX NVDA. My take is bullish big time still and for quite a while yet.

Long FB, GOOG, AMZN, AAPL with some smaller positions sprinkled around. MDCO is my only lottery ticket play cuz I believe they are positioning to be sold, don't ask why I think this ... it has not made any money.
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Old 08-19-2018, 10:45 AM   #2
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Apparently emerging markets like Turkey might hurt other EEM countries more than thot?
Why, cuz a bright light is shining on Turkey right now. Investors have realized that these EEM countries are loaning money to each other and printing currency to back it up.
When at the tender age of 16, my buddy and I co-signed for each others loan on a motorcycle. Smart huh? - well these are countries doing the same thing and should know better.

Oil has been beaten up and is ready for a rally, I'll be long RIG and some others including OIH especially if the US dollar weakens at all.

Expect our market to be down a bit during the first half of the week, that is unless the Chinese hammer out a tariff deal... then we are off to the races again!
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Old 08-19-2018, 11:03 AM   #3
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Investors have realized that these EEM countries are loaning money to each other and printing currency to back it up.
When at the tender age of 16, my buddy and I co-signed for each others loan on a motorcycle. Smart huh? - well these are countries doing the same thing and should know better.
Turkey's external debt is mostly held by Western banks, with Europeans being the largest holders. Only a few outliers (Venezuela, e.g.) seem to be "printing money".

Emerging countries do not lend money to each other. They are in aggregate net importers of capital, the lenders being developed country institutions (banks) and investors with surplus capital. Actually, this is very smart, and often a good deal for both lender and borrower.
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Old 08-19-2018, 02:46 PM   #4
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Remember when we had our U.S. disaster starting in 2008? We did away with that pesky old bank rule that was "mark to the market" which primarily helped hide what was going on. It was total deception and Turkey is doing the same thing now.
So the question is how long will investors look away and let this false economy go on? The Turk economy is built on a lie with fiat money, false reporting, false job numbers and false growth. Other EEM countries that are falling behind are doing much similar. Debt does not equal assets! We can't do it at our home.

Have you looked at the ETF's of these countries lately? Go to TUR, EZW, ARGT, EZA, EIDO, FXI, EWY, ECH, ERUS, THD, EWM are some of the worst and are evenly sprinkled around the world.

Yes euro countries have lent them most of their money - on bulked up stats but hey, they didn't do the real homework so they get a haircut.

Many EEM's are about to fall off a cliff, tell ya what, you buy and I'll short ... we'll compare notes some day. Compared to the US market ... well there is no comparing.
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Old 08-21-2018, 08:36 AM   #5
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The FANG options have done nothing for a week or more but that's fine. When you look at the charts for them they go silent for a short rest ... maybe up to two weeks and then resume. The general market has been trying to claw past that old top (SPX 2875) and looks like it again this morning.
In spite of this my TastyTrade option account has been giving up -2 to -5 K a day while this market goes up? When the FANGS get re-energized this will certainly help send the market over that hump! Let's hope today.

There are world events that we can do nothing about but we don't need to be genius to see that this is a technical hump and nothing more.
Let's go over the fundamentals here. Tax breaks to companies and voters, new manufacturing plants being built, repatriated cash from big companies, large manufacturers returning from Mexico and other low wage countries, jobless rate going down, wages going up ... the bones of this resurgence have plenty of meat on them. Then (ask Walmart) consumers will start spending those newly earned wages, kicking the market into high gear.

Here is what the holdings are
AAPL- 180 call 514 days
AMZN- 1530 call 514 days
FB - 160 call 150 days
GOOG 1020 514 days
MDCO 40 call 514 days
CMG 477/475 bear call spread 17 days - currently getting killed.

smaller amounts of BABA call, EEM put, NVDA call, ROBO call, BOTZ call,

BTW I hope that it's been mentioned that options are NOT for everyone. Don't believe those who want to sell you an option seminar and then send you out to make millions. It's not easy and it takes a strong stomach sometimes.
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Taking a break
Old 08-28-2018, 09:19 AM   #6
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Taking a break

OK not really taking one, more like getting one ... broke my arm a couple days ago.
The CALLS on the other hand are quite well? Didn't mention profits so far in the acct but each year I start with 200K as seed money. Today there is a total of 471K - roughly 135% gain this year so far.

The method that works best for this investor is:

buy option issues with plenty of time - I usually do 500 days if possible cuz nobody knows what happens short term? Certainly don't buy anything with 45 days or less (unless you are an insider, expecting a big move in a short time?) Time decay really heats up and will eat you alive.... rendering your options worthless.

Buy options deep "in the money" or ITM. There is an important greek letter you must know. Delta is the rate you get paid. Low delta numbers (16) = you make less. High delta (above 80) would be deep ITM, costs more but makes more. Example: if a stock price is $150 then a $100 option is deep in the money .. a $160 option would be OTM.... out of the money (not smart).

Don't dabble in lightly traded stock - go with the proven performers. This is why I option trade FANG stocks and ETF's SPX - QQQ - RUT almost exclusively. You get better fill prices with less spread difference in heavy traders.

Above is all about naked option buying. Another day we will cover Spreads.

I'm glad we had this chat.
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Old 08-29-2018, 09:54 AM   #7
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Must remember to send Morgan Stanley a Christmas card. They have been busy upgrading holdings in the account. GOOG is up 12 dollars and change while AMZN is goosed by 29 and change. This is the world of options, a strong constitution needed. Acct has a net value of $484K ... a jump from yesterday.

A little history: Should have started this thread a month earlier cuz it was 533 - then down as low as 420.... all in about a month. Thru it all I was like Sitting Bull, confident that little market dustups return to normal. Having plenty of time on your options helps.

The CMG call spreads 177.5/175 are starting to come back. With only 9 days away til expirey they are still 15 bucks in the red for me... not good. But CMG has lost 35 dollars from the high as of 8/29.

Spreads are different by virtue of the limited gain and limited loss. With vertical spreads you sell the expensive call and buy the cheaper call and then hope the stock price does not go up. Profit or loss is the difference between spreads. My spread was $1.40 to make (or lose) ... per share. To make money both calls should expire worthless (the one you sold and the one you bot) but you keep the spread. So with 50 contracts it's about 7K. We could extend the dates with a roll but not too confident this stock will stay down for very long.

Prepared to take my lumps ... have done so before and will again.
For example ROBO and BOTZ calls had initial purchase price of $26,950, 6 months ago ... now they are collectively $400. with 23 days til they expire. ouch.

BTW I am totally forthcoming with this account ... I've never been one to bluster or puff up results.
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Take off eh?
Old 09-03-2018, 11:09 AM   #8
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Take off eh?

Canada - US talks have gotten heated over tariffs. My concern right now tho is the 800Ib Gorilla in the room. Fully committed to righting wrongs, our President is ready for a trade fight with China, as he should. Only problem is - does he announce this week or wait til after mid term election?
Because he is fearless and non-stop, I'm going to liquidate long positions and buy SPX puts on Tuesday Sep 4.

BTW - That Morgan Stanley AMZN upgrade goosed stock price up 65 bucks or so and dragged most of the remainder of my NAZ based stuff up with it.

The result was the account value making it past 150%, $507K and change.
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Adios
Old 09-05-2018, 11:16 AM   #9
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Adios

A recap - I pledged to sell major call holdings at the market open Tuesday - primarily AMZN, APPL, FB, GOOG ... which were executed early.
ROBO BOTZ and some other losers don't matter, we will let them expire.
Emerging market puts - EEM are doing fine and up 23%. Also kept the 20 "lotto ticket" MDCO calls.

Still have hope for the 50 each of CMG vertical spreads which are barely below the ITM range (good for me) ... 2 days til expirey. We want these to expire worthless but it's very close, could go either way? I'm stubborn, could let it go now and make .20 cents a share or roll the dice for $1.40 and that's a big maybe?

Also pledged to buy puts - Bot 20 (ITM) SPX $3100 puts with 296 days ... 70 Delta. Total price 463K and change. Today with the market down they are in the green by almost exactly 20K. Gotta say outright ... the near perfectly timed SPX puts were total luck. This doesn't happen to me like this ... ever!

Account is now 525K ... up roughly +162%

Goodbye and good luck.
In a site with mutual fund apostles I see my folly in a silly thread trading aggressive options. I really thot there were others but was wrong about that, won't be talking to myself here anymore.
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Old 09-05-2018, 01:55 PM   #10
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Don't go...there are some of us who might have missed this thread before and/or are still warming up to it. I got interested in options trading about a yr ago, read a book, watched a few videos then lost out on some big gains as the stock prices went way up soon after I sold them through options trading lol I'd love to get back in soon once I relearn what I knew about them.

Congrats on making such nice gains!
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Old 09-05-2018, 02:04 PM   #11
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In a site with mutual fund apostles I see my folly in a silly thread trading aggressive options. I really thot there were others but was wrong about that, won't be talking to myself here anymore.


I have more in individual stocks and ETFs than MFs. Not an indexer either. And I do trade options on the side to make a bit more money, meaning writing calls on stocks that surge up more than I think they deserve, and sell puts on stocks that I think are punished unfairly.

I do not give exact details of my trades, because I make many small trades, and they are spread out over my quite diverse portfolio. Would not help anybody, and would not be all that interesting.


PS. Forgot to add, my strategy is not aggressive at all. My goal is simply to make a few %/year extra on top of what I already own. If the market goes down, I still lose money, but lose less.
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Old 09-05-2018, 03:45 PM   #12
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So let me ask, hypothetically of course, I'm looking at stocks that are valued under $10/share to write covered calls on with the objective of collecting the premiums. How do these sound?
F
NOK

With the strike price of $1-2 above the current trade price. Thoughts?

I think I'd prefer to buy broad indexs like S&P but I can't find one under $10/share.
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Old 09-05-2018, 04:06 PM   #13
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I don't have that many stocks under $10/share. Most of them are from $30 to $200. Just look at F and NOK, and their call options have such low premium, because people do not think that they will move up that much.

Even my expensive stocks give me only $100-400 per contract for strike prices at or slightly above the current price, and 1 month expiration. And if I am not careful, will end up having to sell all of my hot stocks due to covered call assignment, and keep only the losers. It's not that easy, and I do not win all the time, but then I am a market timer and find this fun.

Some guys who put it all on the S&P would beat me this year, but I think, rightly or wrongly, I keep a lot of cash uninvested and that's a more conservative stance in case the market crashes.
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Old 09-06-2018, 09:09 AM   #14
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OK then, will continue. Be aware that I boil things down to "simple". If advice is given it's only because I've "been there - done that". Mistakes? Yup I've made em all!
Due to the size of the page here we will be brief in explanations. If something needs clarity, say it please?

Basic rules I use for buying puts and calls: Spreads and covered will be done another time.
Have a set amount to trade with - not including your retirement nest egg.
Don't reinvent the wheel - "Value stocks" are not option plays. Many stocks are not option plays Everyone is talking about a few "darling" stocks for a reason ... they make lots of MONEY! This is no secret, trade these stocks to your advancement! No need to find a needle in a haystack or some orphan.
Use a chart with either RSI or (MAC/D - Stochastic) indicators - not too many.
Set chart aggregation to "one day" (not a 5 minute chart), timeline one year.
With a chart this way it is easy to spot highs and lows. When reaching a high you could sell the call you bot at the previous low or like me, live thru that small low cuz they are such short duration these days. Puts are dangerous in a run-away bull market like this, save it for a "normal" market.
Be patient when entering a trade, it might go down after you bot - you can be close but trying to time a market like a day trader is a losing game.
Options have a limited number of days on them, buy a lot of time. Like an expensive car, you pay more at purchase but you get more when re-selling. If that BIG dip happens then you have the reserve time to recover.
Don't buy short duration options ever, even if you have no plan to keep it that long.
Don't buy "at the money", "out of the money" or "just in the money" options ... pay a premium that gets you deep in the money.
Work exclusively with high volume, high dollar stocks - no $10 stocks.
Like clockwork, there is a 3-4 week high/low cycle in the market ... be patient with this and don't rush things.

The way options work is you get to buy a high dollar stock at a discount, deep ITM options make money like you own it. My account still could not buy 300 shares of AMZN outright. Deep ITM option contracts make almost double the money of the stock when you compare purchase price. The account can buy 3 AMZN option contracts tho and have plenty for other options.
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Old 09-06-2018, 10:43 AM   #15
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I have a different style of option trading. I sell options, not buy them. I try to use time value decay to my advantage. And I do not use option as leverage, but to hedge in a conservative manner.

Here's an example. Just sold some of my BRK'B shares for $212.11/share. Then sold put options to buy them back at $210, expiry Oct 5 (1 month from now), and got premium of $2.45. In effect, I sold it, but committed to buy it back at 207.55/share.

My rationale: BRK'B is one of my long-term holdings. It's strong but short-term wise still goes down with the overall market. So, I am betting that it will fall, so sell it but do not mind getting it back cheaper. If it goes down below 207.55, I still lose but lose less. If it does not get that low by expiry, I do not have the stock, and will decide to what to do then with the cash.

Why BRK'B? I normally do not do options on a stable stock like this, but I have sold covered call options on all the more volatile stocks that I hold, such as semiconductors, biotechs, and some EMs. And I just feel like selling something today.
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Old 09-06-2018, 12:29 PM   #16
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I have a different style of option trading. I sell options, not buy them. I try to use time value decay to my advantage. And I do not use option as leverage, but to hedge in a conservative manner.

Here's an example. Just sold some of my BRK'B shares for $212.11/share. Then sold put options to buy them back at $210, expiry Oct 5 (1 month from now), and got premium of $2.45. In effect, I sold it, but committed to buy it back at 207.55/share.

My rationale: BRK'B is one of my long-term holdings. It's strong but short-term wise still goes down with the overall market. So, I am betting that it will fall, so sell it but do not mind getting it back cheaper. If it goes down below 207.55, I still lose but lose less. If it does not get that low by expiry, I do not have the stock, and will decide to what to do then with the cash.

Why BRK'B? I normally do not do options on a stable stock like this, but I have sold covered call options on all the more volatile stocks that I hold, such as semiconductors, biotechs, and some EMs. And I just feel like selling something today.
Excellent! Can you elaborate on such a trade ... walk a beginner thru it that might want to learn?

Using that Berkshire stock and your Oct5 date, what if you sold the 220 Call, Bot the 222.5 Call simultaneously? Each "vertical spread call" contract you did would be a $38 credit. 6 contracts would make the same profit as you with a total of $214 risked per contract or $1284. This works out to be almost 18% gain in a month. Benefit here is you don't need the $21000K worth of stock to do it.
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Old 09-06-2018, 06:43 PM   #17
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Yours is not a bad trade, although if all a person has is $1272 ( (222.5-220-0.38)*600 ) that he risks to make $228 ( 0.38 x 600 ), then that's high risk. Note that I ignore trading costs to make it simpler.

In my case, Berkshire is a long-term position. I have too many shares, and want to trim off some shares to free some cash, but do not mind buying it back a bit cheaper. If it doesn't drop, I may still buy it back and pocket the $245. Or I may use that cash to buy something else. A lot of things may happen in a month.
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Old 09-07-2018, 12:10 PM   #18
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I appreciate this thread. So far I don’t use any technical signals to do my trade, I need to pay attention to Delta and RSI. I also don’t buy very long options, but long enough that I can ride out the whipsaw. But I’m well aware that holding options is risky because of the decaying of the premium. In short, I should look at longer option, Deep in the money options versus the Just in the money option.

I’ve been selling puts on AMD, such volatile stock that offers high premium. Some of my smaller account like HSA has been going up to 30%, certainly not as good as OP’s performance. But I’m also out of AMD, it went up too fast too soon.

I’ve also just moved my trading account to Fidelity and will do more trading(now that I’m back to USA) with all the free trades.

However, I have a question about long term calls and puts, how do you know they will pan out the way you expect. For example, last year, I wrote some Long puts on AMAT, hoping this Jan it will be at least 55, but it’s tanking in the low 40s.

Lots of ramblings early in the morning, lol.
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Old 09-08-2018, 09:31 AM   #19
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So far I don’t use any technical signals to do my trade. I have a question about long term calls and puts, how do you know they will pan out the way you expect. For example, last year, I wrote some Long puts on AMAT, hoping this Jan it will be at least 55, but it’s tanking in the low 40s.
Lots of ramblings early in the morning, lol.
bidu2.pngThis is how using technicals can help, using a year chart of a directionless stock. There is a study at bottom that shows when to write a put and when to write a call. There are so many studies to use, this one is "TTM Squeeze"
Inserted here for the colors only ... I like "MAC/D - Stochastics" myself.
Have gone ahead and done a possible vertical spread trade. When "yellow turns red" Sell 207.5 put - buy 205 put, 34 days duration.
10 contracts has $670 possible profit - $1830 possible loss.
Return of 36% .. not bad for a month but I like that there is a set amount of risk.

Alternatively, sell call spreads when light blue turns dark blue. Write spreads a few strikes out and don't do for a long time. Writing both puts and calls, it looks like there are about a dozen trades over the year shown. I prefer selling calls cuz we've heard of a market crash but never heard of a market crash UP!

Oh and "vertical spreads" are especially good because you don't tie up incredible amounts of your tradable funds for 34 days (you don't even own the stock) ... only ties up $1830 where a covered call ties up the entire amount of your stock.

A stock without direction is best for selling both sides - this "one year" chart shows no uptrend or downtrend.
Next we will cover a bullish stock and what to do with it.
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Old 09-08-2018, 06:53 PM   #20
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I don't have that many stocks under $10/share. Most of them are from $30 to $200. Just look at F and NOK, and their call options have such low premium, because people do not think that they will move up that much.

Even my expensive stocks give me only $100-400 per contract for strike prices at or slightly above the current price, and 1 month expiration. And if I am not careful, will end up having to sell all of my hot stocks due to covered call assignment, and keep only the losers. It's not that easy, and I do not win all the time, but then I am a market timer and find this fun.

Some guys who put it all on the S&P would beat me this year, but I think, rightly or wrongly, I keep a lot of cash uninvested and that's a more conservative stance in case the market crashes.
Likewise! I only feel comfortable selling call options. However, right now my problem is finding inexpensive stocks (as I don't have a margin account) so I can dip my toes with $2-3k as play money. As long as I make $100-400 on the premiums per contract I'm happy...call it hobby income.
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