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Old 01-01-2015, 11:54 PM   #201
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quoting myself:
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I am planning to retire at the end of Feb (end of Dec, if there are problems).
There have been changes. The project was cancelled (while we are on annual leave ). We have to be out of the country by 15 Jan. We will have 10 calendar days to vacate when we get back.
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We are also taking out a new HELOC on our almost-paid off mortgage while I am still working, to preserve some options.
We paid off the house yesterday.

Better HELOC rates, better service with Key Bank. For us. YMMV.
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Old 01-01-2015, 11:55 PM   #202
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The Russell 2000 index closed yesterday almost at the high of the year in 2014. I would suspect that the small caps did well overall.
Well, the Russell 2000 was up 6.07% in 2014, which is OK I guess, but the S&P was up 14.7%.
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Old 01-02-2015, 07:51 AM   #203
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The Russell 2000 index closed yesterday almost at the high of the year in 2014. I would suspect that the small caps did well overall.
My small cap funds did magically recover in December. I was all set to add funds to them in rebalancing, and all of a sudden it was no longer required!
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Old 01-02-2015, 07:54 AM   #204
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But their E's have not been growing this year, hence their P's. They trailed the S&P badly this year.
Probably an investment opportunity. Some years small caps outperform, others large caps do.
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Old 01-02-2015, 07:59 AM   #205
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Well, the Russell 2000 was up 6.07% in 2014, which is OK I guess, but the S&P was up 14.7%.
Small-cap value did well though with a 10.4% return.
Small-cap growth went back to where it belongs with a return of 4.0%.
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Old 08-27-2015, 01:28 PM   #206
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Back to 25% stocks as of 1:00 pm today with S&P500 @ 1986. Falling new orders, the new record high in average PE stock and John Hussman & James Grant writings have convinced me that FED will not be initiating an inflationary expansion which would mean a higher stock holding will be needed, instead likely to be resolved as a debt problem which means sinking stock prices. This sale is in my IRA so no tax implications but will get in if S&P manages to get to new high.

At this point is just barely in red for the year (less than 1%)
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Old 08-27-2015, 03:24 PM   #207
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Does that mean you sold the position you had bought when the market crossed 2020 late last year? Or had you already sold prior to this week?
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Old 08-28-2015, 11:11 AM   #208
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Does that mean you sold the position you had bought when the market crossed 2020 late last year? Or had you already sold prior to this week?
I sold not the exact position I bought at 2020 because I had some individual stocks I had sold and my individual stock allocation was already lower than I normally run so I have kept some index funds, but for practical purposes yes I sold @ 1986 what I had bought back @ 2020, less dividends about a 1% loss.
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Old 08-28-2015, 11:26 AM   #209
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Back to 25% stocks as of 1:00 pm today with S&P500 @ 1986. Falling new orders, the new record high in average PE stock and John Hussman & James Grant writings have convinced me that FED will not be initiating an inflationary expansion which would mean a higher stock holding will be needed, instead likely to be resolved as a debt problem which means sinking stock prices. This sale is in my IRA so no tax implications but will get in if S&P manages to get to new high.

At this point is just barely in red for the year (less than 1%)
I have been holding DW and my 457 portfolios at an 80/20 mix with the guaranteed insurance value fund the 80%. Slow and steady growth and barely a twinkle due to the late market volatility.
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Old 08-28-2015, 11:50 AM   #210
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An article posted on Fidelity originally from CNN Money on moves for a volatile market.

The first move about gauging the actual impact on someone portfolio is exactly what I did before I established my AA a couple of years before I retired. If the market drops to the levels of the 2008/2009 crash I was willing to accept a 25% loss in portfolio value with an AA of 50/50.

https://www.fidelity.com/insights/in...a-crazy-market
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Old 08-31-2015, 09:29 AM   #211
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Hussman Funds - Weekly Market Comment: If You Need To Reduce Risk, Do It Now - August 31, 2015

John Hussman charting why expected 10 year stock returns are zero.
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Old 08-31-2015, 10:29 AM   #212
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Hussman Funds - Weekly Market Comment: If You Need To Reduce Risk, Do It Now - August 31, 2015

John Hussman charting why expected 10 year stock returns are zero.
Thanks.
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Old 08-31-2015, 11:23 AM   #213
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Hussman Funds - Weekly Market Comment: If You Need To Reduce Risk, Do It Now - August 31, 2015

John Hussman charting why expected 10 year stock returns are zero.
He's predicting a 40-45% decline in stocks over the next 18 months. If you believe him, why not go all cash? I'm not suggesting he's wrong........just asking.
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Old 08-31-2015, 11:33 AM   #214
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Isn't Hussman pretty much a perma bear managing funds that have performed very poorly - that is negative returns - over the last 3, 5 and 10 years?
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Old 08-31-2015, 11:35 AM   #215
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I do not follow any guru and only know of Hussman here.

But even if he's been wrong, what if he finally turns out right? Just sayin'...
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Old 08-31-2015, 11:37 AM   #216
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I do not follow any guru and only know of Hussman here.

But even if he's been wrong, what if he finally turns out right? Just sayin'...
Sure - right every bear market.

Just needs to be taken with a grain of salt - Swedroe: Why Care What Hussman Forecasts? | ETF.com
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Old 08-31-2015, 11:38 AM   #217
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Did he say "Buy, buy, buy" after the market reached bottom? If so, he would not be all wrong.
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Old 08-31-2015, 11:42 AM   #218
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Hussman Funds - The Funds

Returns have been negative over the last 10 years. Maybe he gets it right over the next 10........ or maybe not.
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Old 08-31-2015, 11:50 AM   #219
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Seriously, even Bogle recently says that the market is fully valued. If it goes up, it would not be much. And so, the market may just bounce around +-10% as it often does.

Maybe it can even drop 20% if there's something cataclysmic happening. But does anyone have a plausible reason to think a 50% drop can happen, the same magnitude as the RE bubble in 2008?

Note that in 2007, I happened to read a few pundits who said that the financial shenanigan was bad, really bad, but I did not believe it. To the people who knew, it was not a black swan. So, what is the potential problem for a 50% market drop now?
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Old 08-31-2015, 11:54 AM   #220
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Did he say "Buy, buy, buy" after the market reached bottom? If so, he would not be all wrong.
Well, he didn't buy in his funds in March of 2009 from what I have read. But I just hear bits and pieces now and then.

Forecasters may be very knowledgeable and all the arguments extremely logical, but it still doesn't mean their predictions are going to come to pass when they say they will and the way they say they will.
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