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Old 03-28-2016, 05:03 PM   #281
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Market timers usually only post when they called it right. Otherwise we just don't hear much.


Because its too painful! I manned up and owned my Pepco bet in another thread....No fun to admit if I had hung onto the stock 1 day more, I would have made 25% in a one week trade....But no I had to chicken out and bail. Im still mad!
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Reduced Stock holdings to 25% today from 50%
Old 03-28-2016, 05:08 PM   #282
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Originally Posted by Gone4Good View Post
Back to the OP.



I noticed that Running Man started this thread in September 2014 when the S&P was right around 2,000. Today it's 2,036. So for an update on selling equities 18 months ago, I'd say not bad. Or, at worst, "no harm, no foul."

Except that he lost about 3.5% percent over the 18 months in dividends during that time by being in cash.

And his cash lost north of 1 percent due to inflation during that time too...

And a market that is 36 points higher or 1.8 percent in price appreciation.

So close to a 5 percent opportunity cost for being in cash.

Not good.
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Old 03-28-2016, 05:34 PM   #283
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Let's assume that Running_Man went all in on February 11th and is embarassed to tell us about it.
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Old 03-28-2016, 06:27 PM   #284
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Let's assume that Running_Man went all in on February 11th and is embarassed to tell us about it.


I shouldnt speak for Running Man, but based on our PM's the last few months he is doing quite well with the individual issues he has bought.
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Old 03-28-2016, 08:38 PM   #285
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Back to the OP.

I noticed that Running Man started this thread in September 2014 when the S&P was right around 2,000. Today it's 2,036. So for an update on selling equities 18 months ago, I'd say not bad. Or, at worst, "no harm, no foul."
But $10k invested in VFINX on 9/10/2015 when this thread started would be worth $10,602.45 with dividends reinvested, or 6% higher in roughly 6 1/2 months and 11% annually.
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Old 03-28-2016, 08:46 PM   #286
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OK Here is what I actually did, On February 24th on the open of the market I purchased enough VTI to raise my stock allocation from 25% to 35%. I also switched from HRL to ACN in my individual stocks for reasons of valuation (HRL had risen to a dividend under 1.5%), a nice run in my time of owning HRL in 2015.

The reason I did this was that I subscribe to Value Line and like the valuation models they have and they had increased with the decline from 40% appreciation potential for the total market to 70% appreciation potential on 2/19/2016. It has since declined with the market advance and declining earnings to 50% potential at present, if it gets back to 40% I will view that as the market once again getting back pretty much to full valuation from everything I look at.

As a matter of fact since I started this thread pretty much nothing as LOL has really happened in the stock market on an overall basis. Anyone who has followed the difference in corporate reported adjusted numbers and GAAP, you know the actual income of companies would know GAAP earnings have been declining for 2 straight years On corporate “adjusted” numbers that CFO’s and CEO’s would like you to value their companies at ---- you know the Valeant Pearson types ----S&P500 is a reasonable 17 times earnings on a GAAP basis it is 23 times earnings. Interesting that the market today is 100% higher than it was in 2010 with the same S&P500 earnings. Just another valuation metric that I find interesting.

2015 Ends With a Stratospheric P/E Multiple Of 23x | Zero Hedge
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Old 03-28-2016, 08:55 PM   #287
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Market timers usually only post when they called it right. Otherwise we just don't hear much.
Same as gamblers, a distinct connection
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Old 03-28-2016, 09:17 PM   #288
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Same as gamblers, a distinct connection
Perhaps you feel that Benjamin Graham was actually the ultimate gambler of all time. It is with his advice that I have formed my portfolio allocation methods.
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Old 03-28-2016, 09:24 PM   #289
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Nope. Just pointing out that wall street is gambling.
Nothing personal.
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Old 03-28-2016, 11:15 PM   #290
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.... Just pointing out that wall street is gambling......
Seem to remember a recent discussion about differences between "gambling" and "investing". Discussion wasn't too productive.

However, I for one am perfectly happy to discuss my "bad" investments if anyone really felt the desire to start a thread on that. I figure we learn as much from our mistakes as our successes.
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Old 03-28-2016, 11:25 PM   #291
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Gambling is going to Las Vegas and out all your chips on red. That's gambling to me. The stock market is too slow for that purpose.


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Old 03-28-2016, 11:46 PM   #292
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Nope. Just pointing out that wall street is gambling. ....
Sure, so is life, and I've timed that well so far. But when I lose I won't be posting here.

Anyone who invests, basically is market timing because they buy or sell at a certain time, without knowing what the future will bring, but hope for some benefit.

So today I tried to sell my option leaps but nobody took the bait, so no profit realized, pretty boring part of the post, but wanted to add it as when I do sell them I might post it, and want everyone to remember I posted this when I didn't score big.
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Old 03-29-2016, 12:25 AM   #293
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...So today I tried to sell my option leaps but nobody took the bait, so no profit realized, pretty boring part of the post, but wanted to add it as when I do sell them I might post it, and want everyone to remember I posted this when I didn't score big.
This is what you want everyone to remember?: that you didn't sell something and when you sell that something you might post it?
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Old 03-29-2016, 07:08 AM   #294
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I thought it was encouraged to use e-r.org to post reminders to themselves to make stock trades. I supposed that was for those who hadn't learned that gigabytes of Internet space are theirs for the asking these days.
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Old 03-29-2016, 07:33 AM   #295
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OK Here is what I actually did, On February 24th on the open of the market I purchased enough VTI to raise my stock allocation from 25% to 35%. I also switched from HRL to ACN in my individual stocks for reasons of valuation (HRL had risen to a dividend under 1.5%), a nice run in my time of owning HRL in 2015.
Thanks for the update.
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Old 03-29-2016, 07:35 AM   #296
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But $10k invested in VFINX on 9/10/2015 when this thread started would be worth $10,602.45 with dividends reinvested, or 6% higher in roughly 6 1/2 months and 11% annually.
The thread began in 2014, so not even close to 11% annually.

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Originally Posted by papadad111 View Post
So close to a 5 percent opportunity cost for being in cash.
Closer, but not quite.

Here's the actual return over that period:

 PriceShares$ Div Per ShareBalance
9/10/2014 184.81 54.11 - 10,000
9/19/2014 185.43 54.35 0.83 10,078
12/17/2014 185.53 54.64 0.98 10,137
3/20/2015 194.32 54.90 0.93 10,668
6/19/2015 194.57 55.14 0.86 10,729
9/18/2015 180.57 55.42 0.91 10,007
12/18/2015 184.84 55.73 1.04 10,302
3/18/2016 188.97 56.02 0.96 10,586
3/28/2016 187.84 56.02 - 10,522

A $522 return on $10K over a little more than 18 months works out to be 3.3% annualized. That's better than the 1% I get in my cash account, but I wouldn't exactly lose sleep over missing out on that kind of gain either.
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Reduced Stock holdings to 25% today from 50%
Old 03-29-2016, 09:46 AM   #297
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Reduced Stock holdings to 25% today from 50%

Ah.

I was assuming sept 2015 not 2014.

Just same it's approx 5 percent as I stated - was quoting a total return.

I was not annualizing. Just total return.

Versus cash which earned nothing. 5.2% per your math too.

I applaud running man for being here and posting. We certainly don't Win them all and I agree, not a bad position if it helped him sleep at night. Just same, market returns have been tough the past 18 months so even a 5 percent return keeps up with inflation and then some ... Approx 3 percent real return over that time is better than going in reverse by 2 percent to inflation. 10 year Bonds yield 1.8 percent. 18 month cd is less than 1 percent.

Ps.
I can't read the table clearly. For what ever reason is doesn't show on my phone. Any tips ?
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Old 03-29-2016, 11:35 AM   #298
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But $10k invested in VFINX on 9/10/2015 when this thread started would be worth $10,602.45 with dividends reinvested, or 6% higher in roughly 6 1/2 months and 11% annually.
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Originally Posted by Gone4Good View Post
The thread began in 2014, so not even close to 11% annually.



Closer, but not quite.

Here's the actual return over that period:

 PriceShares$ Div Per ShareBalance
9/10/2014 184.81 54.11 - 10,000
9/19/2014 185.43 54.35 0.83 10,078
12/17/2014 185.53 54.64 0.98 10,137
3/20/2015 194.32 54.90 0.93 10,668
6/19/2015 194.57 55.14 0.86 10,729
9/18/2015 180.57 55.42 0.91 10,007
12/18/2015 184.84 55.73 1.04 10,302
3/18/2016 188.97 56.02 0.96 10,586
3/28/2016 187.84 56.02 - 10,522

A $522 return on $10K over a little more than 18 months works out to be 3.3% annualized. That's better than the 1% I get in my cash account, but I wouldn't exactly lose sleep over missing out on that kind of gain either.
My bad... I misread the year on the OP. M* says $10,561.79 so pretty close to your numbers... still better than being out of the market.
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Old 04-04-2016, 01:08 AM   #299
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So do you you have a 35/65 AA?
Tilted toward cash ( or bonds)

Are your market concerns same as they were in 2014 ?
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Old 04-04-2016, 04:21 PM   #300
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My concerns today are not the same as in 2014, my concerns in 2014 were driven by the fact the market kept falling back from the 2000- 2100 area on the S&P500 after a very large upmove in the market, due I thought mostly from FED impetus on interest rates.

Since then the Fed has tried without success to this point to move away from ZIRP and earnings for the S&P500 have actually fallen. I did move to 35% stocks in February because of the pickup in market value influenced by Value Line’s anticipated earnings increases for 2016 and the fall off in the actual market values from the start of the year. Since then the anticipated earnings increase for Value Line universe have dropped while the index market price has moved up.

I try to not make too many moves but the Value Line market valuation potential has gone from 70 percent when I moved to 35% stocks to 50% today.

So for now I am watching the anticipated earnings and actual reported earnings before making another move with the 10 percent I have in VTI. My individual stocks that make up the other 25% have been in their own universe and vastly outperforming the S&P500 over the last 9 months, as being dividend stocks apparently lower for longer is driving up valuations in this area higher.
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