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Old 09-10-2014, 12:03 PM   #21
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Market timing never works, only ensures that you will underperform since there is nothing to tell you when to get back in.
That's like saying that going to the casino never works. It can work fabulously if you don't go too often, and if you are lucky the few times you go there. On the other hand, if you are unlucky, or go too often...
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Old 09-10-2014, 12:04 PM   #22
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Originally Posted by nash031 View Post
Interestingly regarding re-balancing: I am 85+/-5% equities (30% of that international), and despite market behavior, I'm still closer to the 80 than I am to the 85%. In June, I re-arranged my semi-monthly purchases such that I would buy more international and US equities than previously, and that percentage has ticked upward, but not as quickly as I had calculated. I suspect that when January rolls around and I take another look at moving things, I might actually push more into stocks... but if everything works out I'll just do nothing but tweak my purchases for the next six months.
I am similar 76% equities goal, but currently sit at 74% (30% international). I was 100% equities my entire life up until June when I moved a quarter of my money into bonds. I currently buy only equities in my 401k until I get just above my total equities goal.
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Old 09-10-2014, 12:06 PM   #23
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Originally Posted by Which Roger View Post
That's like saying that going to the casino never works. It can work fabulously if you don't go too often, and if you are lucky the few times you go there. On the other hand, if you are unlucky, or go too often...
over 95% of people who go to casino's have lost more money in their lives then they have won. If you win a small battle, but lose the war, where has it gotten you?
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Old 09-10-2014, 12:28 PM   #24
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over 95% of people who go to casino's have lost more money in their lives then they have won. If you win a small battle, but lose the war, where has it gotten you?
Mmm, but the casino has rules the market doesn't have, like table limits.
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Old 09-10-2014, 12:37 PM   #25
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Mmm, but the casino has rules the market doesn't have, like table limits.
True. A one-time market timing bet can pay off BIG.

Still, there are many more similarities than differences between casinos and market timing:
- The odds of winning big are about the same.
- People usually think they're smarter than they really are.
- People devise systems that might work in the short term and for a specific set of circumstances, but then they get figured out by everyone else (and might get them arrested or beaten by goons!).
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Old 09-10-2014, 12:53 PM   #26
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Thank you! I need market timers to continue to be market timers to make my long term strategy work. Hopefully more follow suit and I can get a discount on my upcoming semi-monthly automatic purchase.
+1. I would like additional folks to "get out of the game" so I can go scoop up some more at a discount rate!
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Old 09-10-2014, 12:57 PM   #27
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+1. I would like additional folks to "get out of the game" so I can go scoop up some more at a discount rate!
Scooping up at a "discount rate" would be market timing.
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Old 09-10-2014, 01:01 PM   #28
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Scooping up at a "discount rate" would be market timing.
Not if you are buying biweekly in your 401k. It only becomes timing if you sell and buy based upon a guess as to what the market may or may not be doing.
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Old 09-10-2014, 01:11 PM   #29
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Not if you are buying biweekly in your 401k. It only becomes timing if you sell and buy based upon a guess as to what the market may or may not be doing.
Eh, then you are not really scooping up bargains, you are just vacuuming the floor and getting the moldy cheerios along with the pennies.
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Old 09-10-2014, 01:20 PM   #30
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Eh, then you are not really scooping up bargains, you are just vacuuming the floor and getting the moldy cheerios along with the pennies.
When you invest for the long term, anything purchased on a pull back is considered a bargain. After all, the market for the most part continues forward over time, minus occasional pull backs.

I am not trying to change your investing style, just telling you that market timing the vast majority of the time leaves money on the table either being incorrect on when to buy in, or when to sell. There are many investors who have been on the sidelines for a year or two waiting for that eventual pull back. They have missed out on all of the returns.
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Old 09-10-2014, 02:01 PM   #31
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What do you know that the market does not?
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Old 09-10-2014, 02:03 PM   #32
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So you are all overwhelmingly in cash, or you are swapping a bet on stocks for a bet on bonds?
I converted to cash at this point (US Treasury Fund)
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Old 09-10-2014, 02:08 PM   #33
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If you sold at 1986 and will buy back in at 2020, you sold low (based just on this range) and will buy high? And where did you park the proceeds until you buy again at 2020?
I expect it might go lower, I cannot explain how discomforted I felt this morning as I started reviewing all the action from yesterday, the markets seem to me to be hitting an inflection point, however if it goes to 2020 then I will admit I was just a stupid nit in selling and get back to my same allocations I had before I sold. At most this will cost me .5% of my portfolio. There are others who maybe would have bought long term puts with .5% of a portfolio but I don't like to go that route.
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Old 09-10-2014, 02:10 PM   #34
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What do you know that the market does not?
I take this is not a serious question but actually an inference that this is not a smart move, which may very well be true.
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Old 09-10-2014, 02:13 PM   #35
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Never say never, but I'm also confused by the 'sell-low-buy-high' approach.

-ERD50
If one expects a certain outcome and it does not come to pass you have to be willing to admit you are wrong. That I am always willing to do.
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Old 09-10-2014, 02:23 PM   #36
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Market timing never works, only ensures that you will underperform since there is nothing to tell you when to get back in.
2020 in the S&P will tell me to get in, or perhaps it will be like in 2007 when I got out at 1420 and in 2 years later at 750

Here is last time I did this but I was much more pessimistic than I am now: S&P 1420:Time to start buying again?
Here is where I got back in S&P 500 756, so I have a few points in the bank to play with:
Step up and call the bottom!

there was also in October of 2009 where I had thought Dow 10,000 might stop the rally but by 2010 the Fed and the government had shown their hand and the extreme level of financial support to the financial markets and I have been in pretty fully (for me) since 2010.
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Old 09-10-2014, 04:32 PM   #37
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There are some interesting things on the calendar coming up. One is the Federal budget impasse in Congress again. Another is the mid-term election. The Scotland thing will affect UK and other stocks, too.

And you know all the other stories.
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Old 09-10-2014, 04:56 PM   #38
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I went to all cash today in my trading account. It is but a small portion of our overall portfoliowhich is pretty heavy in stocks but it sure does feel good to be in cash (also feels good to be up over 60% YTD...makes me not so worried about near term inflation eroding that account while in cash).

I am ready to jump back in on a few names though. Gilead if it drops below $100, Apple below $90, Radio Shack if they pay me something to buy it.
Congrats!
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Old 09-10-2014, 05:06 PM   #39
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Anybody remember about a month ago the talking heads were warning that "Main Street" investors were finally starting to re-enter the market, and that that was sign that a correction was imminent?
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Old 09-10-2014, 05:38 PM   #40
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There are so many talking head experts now it gets hard to figure out which one is right. Goldman is still sticking by their $1050 gold by the end of the year. Some other was predicting oil will go to $150 while his rival was saying it was going even lower than it is now.

Makes me wonder who really is the dumb money and who is the smart money.
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