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Old 10-02-2014, 03:04 PM   #101
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Right or wrong, I could not resist buying Ford and Tesco yesterday.
Would that be the Tesco with large accounting error reported?
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Old 10-02-2014, 03:41 PM   #102
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Time will tell, but SPY has had dozens of dips like this in the past 5 years. Would getting out each time, and then getting back in at a higher price have been 'genius'? I doubt that. How can we know that this one will be different?


-ERD50
First, I would like to point out as the market has been falling, I am losing money not making money, just losing 1/2 as much as I would have. This is a conservative and defensive approach to portfolio management, not a lottery ticket shot at getting rich sure to result in poverty.

I would like to quote from Benjamin Graham's excellent book, The Intelligent Investor on the defensive investor: "We have suggested as a fundamental guiding rule that the investor should never have less than 25% or more than 75% of his funds in common stocks, with a converse inverse range between 75% and 25% in bonds. There is an implication here that the standard division should be 50/50 between the two investment mediums. According to tradition the sound reason for increasing the percentage in common stocks would be the appearance of the bargain price levels created in a protracted bear market. Conversely, sound procedure would call for reducing the common-stock component below 50% when in the judgement of the investor the market level has become dangerously high...... it is almost equally difficult to advise a reduction of the figure well below 50% unless the investor is disquieted in his own mind[note italics are Benjamin Grahams not mine] about the current market level and will be satisfied to limit his participation in any further rise to say 25% of his total funds."



With the bond buying by the FED coming to an end, the fact there have been sellers in abundance every time the S&P gets to 2000, along with price action after years of bull market in many different investments, was very disquieting to me, but Draghi is getting ready to start taking aggressive steps of his own and if this selling does not keep the S&P from breaking 2000 then I will jump in and see how the Draghi ride goes. But my moves are not usually frequent and try to buy value and sell at peaks.

My selling at 1400 in the S&P 500 in 2007 and buying at 700 in 2009 made the stock position in 2009 equal to 200% of the stock position had I just maintained a 50/50 allocation. I am certainly not a genius, I am very conservative in nature. If I was willing to take large positions I could have become Michael Burry, because I was as sure as he was that the market was going to collapse, it's just I realize the potential of being wrong and I wasn't willing to bet my retirement on it, just for the chance to be rich. I don't need to be rich, but I like a comfortable lifestyle and watch closely to protect it.

To the 2nd point that there have been all these dips on the chart, and how is this time different: We are 5 years into a bull market which is up 200%, how many bull markets have exceeded this length in time and return? The reason for my selling is extremely similar to my move in late 2009 after the Dow nearly got to 10,000 (S&P was nearly 1100) I reduced again to my lower target and as the Fed showed their hand in 2010 that they had no intention of slowing their easing, and in fact were willing to take historic unequaled steps, I returned to a 50% holding. The key is how disquieted I am, not anyone else, I must think independently, the fact that no one understands this move shows how opposite to thinking I have to an approach I see as crystal clear.

I have been posting here to show what Benjamin Graham actually suggests is possible as a conservative approach to stocks if one is willing to take time to study stocks, their value and what that means to the relative value of the market.

We are in an unusual time, the Federal reserve did not even exist for much of the stock history and did little through most of the years used in FIRECALC. Now in just a few short years they have become the single biggest purchaser of financial assets in the United States. From 700 billion in 2007 to 4.4 trillion dollars today, while GDP has gone from 14 Trillion to 15 Trillion means the Fed now has an amazing amount of assets relative to the output of the country. This is unprecedented in FIRECALC history and the outcome of this is going to have some disruptions, and at some point it will get outside the control of the FED. Now Europe and Japan are doing the same thing, financial impact is going to be interesting, certainly the last 5 years have been very interesting. Will it be the start of a bear market or a big move up? I think most likely the answer to that is yes.
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Old 10-02-2014, 03:51 PM   #103
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First, I would like to point out as the market has been falling, I am losing money not making money, just losing 1/2 as much as I would have. This is a conservative and defensive approach to portfolio management, not a lottery ticket shot at getting rich sure to result in poverty.

I would like to quote from Benjamin Graham's excellent book, The Intelligent Investor on the defensive investor: "We have suggested as a fundamental guiding rule that the investor should never have less than 25% or more than 75% of his funds in common stocks, with a converse inverse range between 75% and 25% in bonds. There is an implication here that the standard division should be 50/50 between the two investment mediums. According to tradition the sound reason for increasing the percentage in common stocks would be the appearance of the bargain price levels created in a protracted bear market. Conversely, sound procedure would call for reducing the common-stock component below 50% when in the judgement of the investor the market level has become dangerously high...... it is almost equally difficult to advise a reduction of the figure well below 50% unless the investor is disquieted in his own mind[note italics are Benjamin Grahams not mine] about the current market level and will be satisfied to limit his participation in any further rise to say 25% of his total funds."



With the bond buying by the FED coming to an end, the fact there have been sellers in abundance every time the S&P gets to 2000, along with price action after years of bull market in many different investments, was very disquieting to me, but Draghi is getting ready to start taking aggressive steps of his own and if this selling does not keep the S&P from breaking 2000 then I will jump in and see how the Draghi ride goes. But my moves are not usually frequent and try to buy value and sell at peaks.

My selling at 1400 in the S&P 500 in 2007 and buying at 700 in 2009 made the stock position in 2009 equal to 200% of the stock position had I just maintained a 50/50 allocation. I am certainly not a genius, I am very conservative in nature. If I was willing to take large positions I could have become Michael Burry, because I was as sure as he was that the market was going to collapse, it's just I realize the potential of being wrong and I wasn't willing to bet my retirement on it, just for the chance to be rich. I don't need to be rich, but I like a comfortable lifestyle and watch closely to protect it.

To the 2nd point that there have been all these dips on the chart, and how is this time different: We are 5 years into a bull market which is up 200%, how many bull markets have exceeded this length in time and return? The reason for my selling is extremely similar to my move in late 2009 after the Dow nearly got to 10,000 (S&P was nearly 1100) I reduced again to my lower target and as the Fed showed their hand in 2010 that they had no intention of slowing their easing, and in fact were willing to take historic unequaled steps, I returned to a 50% holding. The key is how disquieted I am, not anyone else, I must think independently, the fact that no one understands this move shows how opposite to thinking I have to an approach I see as crystal clear.

I have been posting here to show what Benjamin Graham actually suggests is possible as a conservative approach to stocks if one is willing to take time to study stocks, their value and what that means to the relative value of the market.

We are in an unusual time, the Federal reserve did not even exist for much of the stock history and did little through most of the years used in FIRECALC. Now in just a few short years they have become the single biggest purchaser of financial assets in the United States. From 700 billion in 2007 to 4.4 trillion dollars today, while GDP has gone from 14 Trillion to 15 Trillion means the Fed now has an amazing amount of assets relative to the output of the country. This is unprecedented in FIRECALC history and the outcome of this is going to have some disruptions, and at some point it will get outside the control of the FED. Now Europe and Japan are doing the same thing, financial impact is going to be interesting, certainly the last 5 years have been very interesting. Will it be the start of a bear market or a big move up? I think most likely the answer to that is yes.
No need to explain. Someday people will look back on what they believed, and how arrogant some of them were about it, and wonder what could have been going on.

Ha
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Old 10-02-2014, 04:38 PM   #104
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No need to explain. Someday people will look back on what they believed, and how arrogant some of them were about it, and wonder what could have been going on.
Actually, I appreciated his explanation, including Graham's scripture (so to speak). The market status is disquieting to him, so he followed Graham's advice.

Conversely, the market is not disquieting to me, and my investment timeline and need for money today does not instruct me to change my AA.

I have, and continue to, wished him luck. I hope he's right, and we get a bear where I get a discount on upcoming purchases, and I hope it rebounds astronomically, and that he buys in before it.

I do not trust my ability to time the market that well, so I am staying the course.
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Old 10-02-2014, 04:40 PM   #105
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To the 2nd point that there have been all these dips on the chart, and how is this time different: We are 5 years into a bull market which is up 200%, how many bull markets have exceeded this length in time and return? The reason for my selling is extremely similar to my move in late 2009 after the Dow nearly got to 10,000 (S&P was nearly 1100) I reduced again to my lower target and as the Fed showed their hand in 2010 that they had no intention of slowing their easing, and in fact were willing to take historic unequaled steps, I returned to a 50% holding. The key is how disquieted I am, not anyone else, I must think independently, the fact that no one understands this move shows how opposite to thinking I have to an approach I see as crystal clear.
It hurt to trim that post. Well put, and some do understand.

The following graphic answers your question of how many bull markets have exceeded this one. Lots to ponder...

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Old 10-02-2014, 05:21 PM   #106
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Would that be the Tesco with large accounting error reported?
Indeed, it is!
My apologies to the OP on sidetracking a interesting thread!
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Old 10-02-2014, 05:36 PM   #107
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Very interesting posts. Why not hedge or throw out some options to garner income/reduce risk? If you like GILD at 100, why not sell the GILD 100 puts and pocket $4 for a total buy in of 96, which you should love? Alternatively, throw out the 104 and pocket $5ish for a net price of $99ish? That's about 4-5% cash on cash to wait.
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Old 10-02-2014, 05:42 PM   #108
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Full auto - Target Retirement since 2006. Soo I don't watch Mr Market as much I used too.

And the Saint's aren't doing so well either!

heh heh heh - Rode thru the last dipsy doodle on full auto. A tad grippy but I was a good Boglehead and stayed the course.

Now the lust add to my dwindled stash of 'a few good stocks' to manage the male hormones?
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Old 10-02-2014, 07:56 PM   #109
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...
I would like to quote from Benjamin Graham's excellent book, ...

If I was willing to take large positions I could have become Michael Burry, because I was as sure as he was that the market was going to collapse, it's just I realize the potential of being wrong and I wasn't willing to bet my retirement on it, just for the chance to be rich. ...
Thanks for that detailed explanation. I really can't disagree with any of it, but like the following poster...

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...
I do not trust my ability to time the market that well, so I am staying the course.
(para-phrasing your comment) I also realize the potential of being wrong and I am not willing to bet a significant percentage of my retirement on it. I think I'm in pretty good shape, and some extra from successful timing would not mean as much to me as some loss from unsuccessful timing.

-ERD50
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Old 10-03-2014, 12:37 AM   #110
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I also think the market is on the high side, and so I have held back investing 30% of a rollover in stocks.
I also wanted to get rid of some coal stocks, as they had performed poorly, and with all the "green" thinking going on it seemed uphill.
I recently sold JOY call options for 600 shares so I could eek out a small profit and they got exercised, I'm so glad they did as it has since fallen $10/sh from then.
I have kept this cash waiting for the market to stumble/fall.
I know its not a true boglehead approach, but the majority of my holdings are B&H and I allow myself to try to time/beat the market with maybe 10% or less of holdings.
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Old 10-03-2014, 01:27 AM   #111
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Great post Running Man. It was similar post back in 2007 that made me pay attention.

While I understand the difficulties of marketing time for most people is you have to be right twice, getting out and getting in. In my case I'm quite confident of my ability to get within hand grenade distance of the market bottom. In 30 years of investing, I have never been tempted to sell near the bottom. Instead of being fearful during a bear market, I am greedy. The only time I've ever sold at the bottom was the Oct 19, 1987 crash. The weekend before smart guys like Bob Brinker said the market was going to correct. I put in sell order that weekend, once I saw the carnage in the morning, I tried to contact Fidelity and cancel the sell order but their phone lines were jammed so I sold at the bottom. But I got immediately back into the market that week.

However, I have no talent for spotting the market top. Even during the crazy internet bubble back in 1999/2000, my gut didn't tell me sell only my brain. I'm finding it hard to have a large cash position right now, and watch the market drift modestly lower and not buy something.

But just because I have no talent spotting a top doesn't mean others don't.. I've made money listening to Brewer on fixed income investments, and HaHa on individual stocks. Will see if Running_Man will do the same for market timing, don't mean to put too much pressure on you.

On a percentage basis I'll miss maybe 1% on the upside and lose 3% less if the market does decline. (I am still at 60% equities, so I'll be perfectly happy if Running Man is wrong and S&P 2000 is nothing. ) But it is still a decent chunk of money.
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Old 10-03-2014, 09:29 AM   #112
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I think it's time for you to get back in.
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Old 10-03-2014, 10:06 AM   #113
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While I understand the difficulties of marketing time for most people is you have to be right twice, getting out and getting in. In my case I'm quite confident of my ability to get within hand grenade distance of the market bottom. In 30 years of investing, I have never been tempted to sell near the bottom. Instead of being fearful during a bear market, I am greedy. The only time I've ever sold at the bottom was the Oct 19, 1987 crash. The weekend before smart guys like Bob Brinker said the market was going to correct. I put in sell order that weekend, once I saw the carnage in the morning, I tried to contact Fidelity and cancel the sell order but their phone lines were jammed so I sold at the bottom. But I got immediately back into the market that week.

However, I have no talent for spotting the market top. Even during the crazy internet bubble back in 1999/2000, my gut didn't tell me sell only my brain. I'm finding it hard to have a large cash position right now, and watch the market drift modestly lower and not buy something.

But just because I have no talent spotting a top doesn't mean others don't.. I've made money listening to Brewer on fixed income investments, and HaHa on individual stocks. Will see if Running_Man will do the same for market timing, don't mean to put too much pressure on you.

(I am still at 60% equities, so I'll be perfectly happy if Running Man is wrong and S&P 2000 is nothing.
S&P 2000 means something to people right now. In about a year, after we've crossed it back and forth a few times, it won't.

Anyway, you've commented on several occasions that you're willing to follow the advice of two posters on an internet message board to compensate for your own admitted shortcomings. I applaud the ability to recognize what your weaknesses, but I shudder at the idea of trusting anyone else to make my investment decisions, particularly people I don't know (note: you may know these guys, but I still wouldn't let what friends say impact my investment decisions without doing a hell of a lot of research and soul-searching first).

Good luck to you!
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Old 10-03-2014, 10:45 AM   #114
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I consider adjusting my AA every year or so to be the only form of market timing that I'm comfortable with.
Me too. Sometime I tell people I'm a buy and reallocate investor.
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Old 10-10-2014, 06:47 PM   #115
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One Month Update:

S&P 500 closed right on it's 200 day moving average at 1906 a drop of 80 S&P points in the month since I sold down 4.03%. Russell 2000 continues to get hammered and now is almost down 10% on the year. The closing high for the month was 2010 just 10 little points from my buy stop. The continued drop of oil prices, the technology stocks drop and the Russell 2000 collapse so far seems to be leading the market to a lower future to me as expectations of future economic activity seem to be rated down by economically sensitive sectors.

Will maintain my same position, wait for lower prices or buy back in at a close over 2020 in the S&P 500 which is still totally possible, there should be quite a few speculative buyers at this level, though the probability of 2020 before 1600 seems less likely as the month passed.

One of the interesting financial points to watch as the markets begin to fall is financial impact of dropping securities and companies that own the offsetting hedges. Improper hedging tends to show up in times of market stresses and the oil drop is quite significant and unexpected - losses such as the 2008 7 billion dollars Societe General lost in 2008 on European Index futures or Aracuz's 1.8 billion dollar FX loss the same year. with the balance sheet extension's the Federal Reserve has taken to this point rescue operations are considerably stretched and after years of low volatility not sure everyone at their trading desks are ready for a return to high volatility in all the markets. No predictions just interesting things to watch for considering cold winter is coming to Europe and someone in Russia apparently is breaking into every US companies Customer Data files.
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Old 10-10-2014, 08:09 PM   #116
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....though the probability of 2020 before 1600 seems less likely as the month passed.
Seems like you've been right so far, but I sure hope you're wrong on that.
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Old 10-11-2014, 07:25 PM   #117
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Very interesting thread, RunningMan. Thanks for sharing your moves with us, and the rationale behind them (and congrats on being on the mark so far). Please keep us posted on what you decide to do as we move forward with this correction. Knowing when to buy back in is the hard part, for me anyway.
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Old 10-12-2014, 12:31 PM   #118
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In many instances once you reach the 200 day moving average, there is a attempted rally that fails to make a new high and subsequently takes out the 200 day moving average. With that in mind, On Friday I bought SPY for what will probably be a quick trade.
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Old 10-12-2014, 05:57 PM   #119
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S&P 2000 means something to people right now. In about a year, after we've crossed it back and forth a few times, it won't.

Anyway, you've commented on several occasions that you're willing to follow the advice of two posters on an internet message board to compensate for your own admitted shortcomings. I applaud the ability to recognize what your weaknesses, but I shudder at the idea of trusting anyone else to make my investment decisions, particularly people I don't know (note: you may know these guys, but I still wouldn't let what friends say impact my investment decisions without doing a hell of a lot of research and soul-searching first).

Good luck to you!
How do you know we are going to cross S&P 2000 this year? That sounds like market prediction to me.. One possible reason S&P 2000 may not be barrier a year from now is that we maybe struggling to cross S&P 1700 or some 200 day moving average barrier even lower.

Running Man and I joined the forum 8 years ago.. 900 often very detail posts, and few PM, I suspect is a more research than most people do on their financial adviser. In Brewer's and HaHa's case I am sure they have posted a couple of thousand financial oriented posts in the last 8 years. I am not sure how much research is needed without running into a paralysis of analysis.

At the risk of being insufferably arrogant, I'll point out I am neither an inexperienced nor an unsuccessful investor. I retired at 39, with no pension (Navy or other). I also picked what I suspect will be one of the top 10 worse years to retiree in 2000. There is a good thread on why 2000 was a bad year to retire here. Yet some how 15 years later I have more money on both a nominal and inflation adjusted basis. Now there is a undoubtedly a lot of luck involved. But I'd argue there is a least a modest amount of skill, partly in my case its figuring which guys know more than myself. Josh Peters, the Morningstar Dividend Investor Newsletter editor is one such person. I invest heavily in dividend stocks that he recommends.

On the forum, I've singled out 3 people, but there a lot of smart people on the forum. What makes those guys special is they have said I am doing/buying X, or avoid buying/selling Y on the forum. Only in one case did they actually PM me and suggest I buy a stock. On some specific occasions, I have listened that advice and ACTED ON IT. I did back of the envelope calculation and by doing so I've made and/or save just over $100K and .

Needless to say if any of them ever make it to Honolulu dinner is on me, and we are talking Alan Wongs, not McDonalds.
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Old 10-14-2014, 07:28 PM   #120
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One Month Update:

One of the interesting financial points to watch as the markets begin to fall is financial impact of dropping securities and companies that own the offsetting hedges. Improper hedging tends to show up in times of market stresses and the oil drop is quite significant and unexpected -
You are my new financial market hero! Seriously. You reallocated at almost impeccable timing! And I am also furthermore impressed with your desired buy-stop ?? Price. I am curious though, why 2020? Why not get back in at 2015?

I understand its hard to predict, and you've eluded to some improperly hedged bets, but what do you feel will have the singlemost impact on the markets declining further, or perhaps also what are your thoughts on the single most factors in a rebound?

We all know this is more than a September sell-off now, you my friend are awesome!

And finally, with the past 2 "corrections" show that the latest financial market bailout in '07 was worse than the tech bubble in 2000. Do you feel this market will rebound sooner than the prior financial crash, as that had rebounded sooner than the tech crash, or do you feel we will see a slower recovery? Also, we had a much longer bull market as you mention, do you feel when we do see the rebounding bull market, will it AGAIN be longer than the last?
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