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Old 12-18-2007, 08:59 PM   #1
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I have noticed Reit stocks dropped quite a bit. The three I own GGP went from 67 to 41, KIM went from 53 to 35 and WRE went from 43 to 30. Are these stocks entering a buy zone? Why or why not?

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Old 12-18-2007, 09:20 PM   #2
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I don't know. Wish I had a working crystal ball!

I do plan to buy a small amount of REIT funds sometime in the next couple of years. I am not convinced that they aren't going to drop some more before they hit bottom. I will probably wait a while.

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Old 12-18-2007, 09:30 PM   #3
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REITs are all about yield. The yield is still low by recent historical standards. And commerical real estate is just about ready to tank (typically follows residential by 4-6 quarters).

I think now would be a good time to wait.
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Old 12-18-2007, 10:09 PM   #4
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I bought REITs in 2000 and 2001 sold them in 2003/4. I bought O last year (with the intention of keeping it forever this will change), and couple this last month as prices started to drop. I think most have been overvalued the last few years and are starting to come back to a fair value. I really do think for REIT price should be based a lot on current yield vs T bill risk free yield or possibly cash flow "yield". In general with the turmoil in real estate I would want a fairly large premium. That said I think investors who do their homework can find good ones.

FWIW Moningstar has the fair value of GGP at 41 3 star, KIM at 31, 2 star, and sounded mildly positive about both.
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