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Old 07-14-2016, 01:53 AM   #61
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Didn't Farma and French show that small-cap value stocks outperform over long periods?

Of course small-cap values do not do that every year. My point was that no segments outperform all the time.
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Old 07-14-2016, 06:17 AM   #62
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Didn't Farma and French show that small-cap value stocks outperform over long periods?

Of course small-cap values do not do that every year. My point was that no segments outperform all the time.
Yes. Supposedly cheap (as in, low book value) & small outperform consistently with long intermediate underperforming stretches.

Greenblatt claims cheap (as in, low P/E) and high ROIC works.

All those make sense: big companies can't go 10x as easy as small companies, a high ROIC indicates a company with a winning business model, and low competition. Cheap doesn't need explanation I guess.

The volatility however in aggregate goes up as well. Small companies go bust more easily, for example.
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Old 07-14-2016, 09:26 AM   #63
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Looks like all 3 major indices will be at new highs today, or in the near future. It's been an interesting ride, so far this year!
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Old 11-22-2016, 05:53 AM   #64
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PSA: S&P500 traded at over 2200 overnight. I recall some folks were saying they would take action at 2200 or other were bets made, but I forget the details.
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Old 11-22-2016, 07:31 AM   #65
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Looks like all 3 major indices will be at new highs today, or in the near future. It's been an interesting ride, so far this year!
It would be great if the last 2 years of consolidation serves as a rally base, but we will just have to wait and see.

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PSA: S&P500 traded at over 2200 overnight. I recall some folks were saying they would take action at 2200 or other were bets made, but I forget the details.
I took 2% out of equities in August around 2185 as part of a long term AA adjustment approaching RE. Now I will look to 2300.
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Old 11-22-2016, 09:13 AM   #66
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Wow! That's lovely that the market is doing so well. S&P 2202, Dow 19,001.

Back when I did my original Wheee!!! post, in 2007, the Dow had just risen past 14,000 and that was a record high. Now, we would all be crestfallen if the market fell down to that level.
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Old 11-22-2016, 09:16 AM   #67
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And look what happened!!

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Back when I did my original Wheee!!! post, in 2007, the Dow had just risen past 14,000 and that was a record high.
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Old 11-22-2016, 09:17 AM   #68
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PSA: S&P500 traded at over 2200 overnight. I recall some folks were saying they would take action at 2200 or other were bets made, but I forget the details.
I'm just watching CAPE10 climb up steeply as company earnings haven't been keeping up with equity prices.

I'm expecting my portfolio to take a severe beating one of these days, who knows when, but we are almost 8 years from the low of 2009. We had a solid correction at the start of this year, but it didn't slow down the rise much.

Santa Claus rally time - it looks like a classic this year. This is the time of year my distributions are paid in cash and I take my annual withdrawal. I always prefer my equities be higher when distributions are paid and I take my withdrawal.
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Old 11-22-2016, 09:19 AM   #69
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Wow! That's lovely that the market is doing so well. S&P 2202, Dow 19,001.

Back when I did my original Wheee!!! post, in 2007, the Dow had just risen past 14,000 and that was a record high. Now, we would all be crestfallen if the market fell down to that level.
OK, so I suggest you wait until Dow 21,000 this time!
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Old 11-22-2016, 09:20 AM   #70
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Yeah, we should have a poll on Q1 2017 equity returns.

My (virtual) money would be on minus 10%.
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Old 11-22-2016, 09:22 AM   #71
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And look what happened!!
So true!


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OK, so I suggest you wait until Dow 21,000 this time!
What's the fun in that!


Ah well, it's up and down, up and down, the market rollercoaster again.
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Old 11-22-2016, 09:24 AM   #72
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Great contrast: Blue shirt vs. Yellow shirt reaction.
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Old 11-22-2016, 09:26 AM   #73
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Great contrast: Blue shirt vs. Yellow shirt reaction.
Blue shirt looks happy like me. Yellow shirt looks kind of bored, though, probably dreading the inevitable drop.
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