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S&P 500 Tops Previous Record High
Old 07-08-2016, 12:40 PM   #1
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S&P 500 Tops Previous Record High

Briefly traded over previous record high closing price. We'll have to see if it maintains this level.

That is all...
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Old 07-08-2016, 01:02 PM   #2
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... and the rollover check into my wife's IRA is deposited, but still has not cleared.

For a long time, I have not wished for the market to crash as much as I do now.
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Old 07-08-2016, 03:01 PM   #3
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So, the market closed with the S&P up 1.53% at 2129.90, near its previous record of 2,130.82 on May 21, 2015.

As I am still sore that my wife's 401k rollover is still sitting in cash (it's 30% of our total investable assets), I console myself with the fact that I did think about the risk of being out of the market and poured all the other cash within reach into the market at the same time.

Much of my cash is really in I-bonds which I do not want to liquidate, so I could only deploy some loose cash on hand. Because that amounts to only about 1/5 of my wife's account, I put it into high-beta ETFs to increase the effect.

The result is that today while the S&P is up 1.53%, the entire stock portion of the portfolio (goosed or not) is up 2.03%. Not as nice as if my wife's 401k got invested, but better than missing out.

Market timing is really tough, I have to keep reminding myself.
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Old 07-08-2016, 04:16 PM   #4
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So do we break this sideways trading range for a new leg up? Or back to S&P 1,800?
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Old 07-08-2016, 04:25 PM   #5
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So do we break this sideways trading range for a new leg up? Or back to S&P 1,800?
Are you asking for preferences?

IF we break through the old high; it should lead to new highs; if we don't break out next week; look out below.

Alcoa reports after bell on Monday; lots of financials during the week. If earnings season goes better than expected, I am hoping for 2200 sometime this summer.

Of course, "hoping" is not a good investment strategy

Marc
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Old 07-08-2016, 04:42 PM   #6
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I dunno, as I never knew. So, I hedge by writing covered calls, and/or selling covered puts.

Just last week, some covered calls looked like they would expire worthless, while my cash-covered puts would be exercised forcing me to buy. Suddenly, the calls now look like I will get more cash as my stocks get called, and the puts will be worthless. It's hard to tell as the market turns on a dime. Next week may go back to like last week if something unpredictable happens.

The thing is as long as I make some money better than CDs or stinkin' I-bonds, I should be grateful and not be greedy.
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Old 07-08-2016, 08:35 PM   #7
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So, I looked to see what my stash was on 5/21/2015, the last time the S&P was at this level.

After accounting for withdrawal, I found that I am still down -1.5% in this interval, while the S&P is up roughly 2% due to dividends. Wellesley is up 8.4%!

International stocks hurt me to no end! For example, one of my EM funds is down -14.2% over the same period. It's amazing that I can almost break even over all.
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Old 07-08-2016, 10:19 PM   #8
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Once you have enough you don't pay attention so much.
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Old 07-08-2016, 10:21 PM   #9
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How does one know he still has enough if he does not look?

What if you do not look, then find out that you have only 2/3 or 1/2 of what you think you do?
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Old 07-09-2016, 03:59 AM   #10
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So do we break this sideways trading range for a new leg up? Or back to S&P 1,800?
Stay tuned to find out. Could be some other outcome like remaining in the trading range or poke higher briefly for a bull trap. If you have just held since the last high you are still up by the dividends. I am approaching RE early next year and will reduce my AA by 5% if the S&P approaches 2200.
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Old 07-09-2016, 04:44 AM   #11
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C'mon! It's been two steps forward, one step back since...what?, since forever?

It'll go down a bit and gain new highs. I sympathize with NW-Bound in hoping for a little market timing, but "over the long run" it should be higher than whatever price he gets next week.

Week to week will drive you crazy but as someone here once posted "from 20 feet away my chart looks like a straight line upwards"; from 2 feet, not so much.

Personally, my NW hit an all time high yesterday.
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Old 07-09-2016, 05:10 AM   #12
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... and the rollover check into my wife's IRA is deposited, but still has not cleared.

For a long time, I have not wished for the market to crash as much as I do now.
I ran into the same thing with my wife's rollover. Her account has missed the recent run-up. However, I console myself thus: While our joint AA is a tad under what I would consider "ideal", should the market continue it's unabated course to ever higher ground, we will do quite well with the AA we have,

and should the market tank, we will be fine also. Maybe better in the long run with so much "dry powder" available. So, maybe, our AA is "ideal" for us, even if a tad low for most "experts".

IOW, maybe it's more about securing a floor, than maximizing the ceiling.
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Old 07-09-2016, 05:27 AM   #13
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Even with a balanced asset allocation, my portfolio jumped up in one day almost as much as what DS will earn in a year with a starting salary IF he can find a full time job. He's put out many applications and is waiting. It still feels very strange to see that multimillion portfolio balance... I feel the pain of those just starting out in the world who are not in medicine, IT, or engineering.


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Old 07-09-2016, 07:43 AM   #14
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I didn't go all in during the "it only happens twice a year" Brexit sale and am still sitting on some cash from our home sale. I am happy either way the market goes.
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Old 07-09-2016, 08:07 AM   #15
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International stocks hurt me to no end! For example, one of my EM funds is down -14.2% over the same period. It's amazing that I can almost break even over all.[/QUOTE]

I'm with you on this point! I know the benefits of diversification but seeing how my international funds seem to pull down my equity performance, year after year, is painful. Feels like a very long time that having international equities have just hurt the portfolio. If I'd just kept it super simple with one S&P 500 fund I'd be way ahead I know someday the international diversification will be a benefit but when is my my annual question. That's my whine for the weekend.
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Old 07-09-2016, 09:23 AM   #16
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I like to lament, but same as you I know the reason for me to do it: diversification.

In addition to international equities, my big slug of I-bonds also hurts performance. It is the cash I intend to keep to tide me over for a few years if the market crashes. One cannot have his cake and eat it too.

I am not going to make drastic changes to my AA despite whining (somewhat jokingly ). Revenge will be mine, one of these days.
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Old 07-09-2016, 09:28 AM   #17
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If we break out on the upside now it will head higher, unless it heads lower. On the other hand if it doesn't break out on the upside it will head lower, unless it heads higher. And you can take this to the bank!

But I was happy yesterday, a new personal all time high for me! On the other hand on Monday I will still be happy, my hammock will still swing on the deck outside, the beer will still be cold, the avocados ripe, the humming birds will be visiting my feeders and the stock market will move.

Another lovely day in retirement
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Old 07-09-2016, 09:35 AM   #18
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If we break out on the upside now it will head higher, unless it heads lower. On the other hand if it doesn't break out on the upside it will head lower, unless it heads higher. And you can take this to the bank!
So, in summary, you're saying it'll probably go up, unless it goes down first, but it might go down first, unless it goes up? But whatever, life is good.

Dude, seriously, you should seriously consider a second career in diplomacy or politics. You're a natural.

edit to add - j/k
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Old 07-09-2016, 09:37 AM   #19
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All CaliforniaMan was trying to say was that he could see a head-and-shoulder pattern forming, but he was not yet sure if it is not a reverse head-and-shoulder.
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Old 07-09-2016, 09:39 AM   #20
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International stocks hurt me to no end! For example, one of my EM funds is down -14.2% over the same period. It's amazing that I can almost break even over all.
So perhaps this is an opportunity to invest in something that will give you a healthier future return? Maybe you can be the next John Templeton.
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