S&P YTD over -7.5% today

[dvalley]

Didn't see any talk about it so I thought why not...

I had a couple of VTI limit orders (at $128 and $127) that both got executed and how I got notified. As of right now it's trading at $126.7x

I've got some more dry powder but starting to run low...I'm thinking of putting in another few limit orders for if it drops another 5% or so (VTI $121) over the next couple of months. Thoughts??

 

[NYEXPAT]

Check your "spam folder", apparently you did not get the email?

 

[dvalley]

Check your "spam folder", apparently you did not get the email?

Email?

Oh, I did get the notification email when my limit orders executed if that's what you mean?

 

[dvalley]

Looks like a FIRE sale today...S&P down to 2464 now.

 

[Dtail]

Looks like a FIRE sale today...S&P down to 2464 now.

Good or bad news, it goes down. Hit 20% already and let's hopefully move on.

 

[dvalley]

Good or bad news, it goes down. Hit 20% already and let's hopefully move on.

Personally, I'm hoping for the same...i.e. the bottom of the correction or whatever you want to call it so I can put my cash into the market and ride the next wave up.

 

[COcheesehead]

I prepared for these days since the spike last January when I changed my AA. I still think we go lower, but the opportunity to get richer is getting closer. Invest wisely my friends.

 

[audreyh1]

Well I have to say the strength of the downdraft is impressive. I would have thought these drops to play out over a longer period of time, and certainly not in December!!

It also seems somewhat disproportionate. Unless, as some have said, the market is finally realizing that the "Fed Put" is no more. Well - that was long in coming! QE unwind was announced in Sept 2017 and started in Dec 2017, and the Fed had already started rate hikes in Dec 2016. So it took this long for the market to finally get it? You know, like, don't fight the Fed - the equity market ignored that for a long time.

 

[Vincenzo Corleone]

Well I have to say the strength of the downdraft is impressive. I would have thought these drops to play out over a longer period of time, and certainly not in December!!

Yeah, that was my reaction too. The downward moves have been more dramatic than I had thought they'd be. Maybe that's a good thing in that hopefully things will turn back up sooner than if the downward move was more gradual?

It also seems somewhat disproportionate. Unless, as some have said, the market is finally realizing that the "Fed Put" is no more. Well - that was long in coming! QE unwind was announced in Sept 2017 and started in Dec 2017, and the Fed had already started rate hikes in Dec 2016. So it took this long for the market to finally get it? You know, like, don't fight the Fed - the equity market ignored that for a long time.

It seems to me like it's a perfect storm of things:
1) Interest rates on the upswing
2) The Fed shrinking its balance sheet on a schedule rather than it being data-driven
3) End-of-year tax-loss harvesting
4) Tariffs on Chinese goods
5) Threats of government shutdown
6) Geopolitical uncertainties

But what do I know?

Speaking of not knowing - I don't understand this whole Fed balance sheet shrinking. From what I understand, the Fed - in '08/'09 - bought up a bunch of government bonds in order to get the yields down, making them unattractive for people to hide in. Bonds get bought up, yields go down. So now that the Fed is unloading these bonds, I don't understand why the yields aren't going up.

 

[audreyh1]

Speaking of not knowing - I don't understand this whole Fed balance sheet shrinking. From what I understand, the Fed - in '08/'09 - bought up a bunch of government bonds in order to get the yields down, making them unattractive for people to hide in. Bonds get bought up, yields go down. So now that the Fed is unloading these bonds, I don't understand why the yields aren't going up.

Well some folks have indicated that long yields are in fact higher than they would be without the QE unwind. In fact, that they probably "really" are lower with a clearly inverted curve for a while now.

Difficult to know.....

 

[Sunset]

Great time to convert IRA stocks "in kind" to Roth.
Instead of converting cash that may be in your IRA, sending the lower priced stocks over means more can go.

Also avoids the cost of sell and buy.

 

[dvalley]

Wow VTI (Total Stock Market) down more than 10% now. Currently $123 per share, 52 wk high was $151

I had another limit order execute automatically when VTI went down to $124 per share today. I've bought at $138, $134, $130, $127, $124 - feels like catching falling knives but my time horizon is about 8yrs so I'm mostly bummed about running low on the dry powder at this point.

 

[foxfirev5]

For what its worth I'm not burning my dry powder yet. Either because it doesn't matter that much or its going to fall more. I don't know. If somebody knows for sure please wake me up.

 

[Dtail]

You will have to update the title soon.....

 

[Cat-tirement]

Great time to convert IRA stocks "in kind" to Roth.
Instead of converting cash that may be in your IRA, sending the lower priced stocks over means more can go.

Also avoids the cost of sell and buy.

That was my thought too. Just did my annual conversion this morning.

 

[ShokWaveRider]

-9.1 ytd.

 

[Al18]

According to Marketwatch, S&P 500 is down 17.51% for the past 3 months, down 9.61% YTD and down 9.94% for the year. Almost a bear market.

 

[IMATERP]

I think we get another leg of craziness in January. When the average investor sees his/her next quarterly statement. Investors have taken a beating this December.

 

[audreyh1]

According to Marketwatch, S&P 500 is down 17.51% for the past 3 months, down 9.61% YTD and down 9.94% for the year. Almost a bear market.

Yeah, not too far to hit 20%. Been a really long time sine a fall that big.

 

[24601NoMore]

The $64M question is:

Who in their right minds would sell at this level?

That's what I keep thinking as the market continues to drop in multiple hundred point chunks seemingly every single freaking day..

In the meantime, there are some good dividend paying stocks like T (PE of *5*!!, dividend 7.21%), F (ditto, yield 7.45%) and many more out there. While dividends "can" be cut, I wouldn't expect that in either case..these are healthy companies that have been around forever and by all rights look very solid. Just beaten down by the market and a great buying opportunity for those like us looking for income..the alternative for dry powder is ~3% in brokered 2-yr CDs, so this market drop has created opportunities for >2X the income with the same amount invested..

Now if my favorite REIT (O) would just drop a little more..it's been one of the only stocks on my watchlist that seem impervious to the market meltdown..has stayed in the mid 60s throughout and is only yielding just north of 4%. Would like to own more of that and WELL also but they both seem bulletproof price-wise..interesting..

 

[REWahoo]

Who in their right minds would sell at this level?

Those who believe/fear it is headed lower.

 

[steelyman]

In the meantime, there are some good dividend paying stocks like T (PE of *5*!!, dividend 7.21%), F (ditto, yield 7.45%) and many more out there.

I agree. I wish I had more cash in my taxable brokerage account, for now I have a few limit orders out to buy a few stocks should they reach (what I thought were) insanely low prices. I already have a healthy amount of AT&T and am happy with it.

 

[audreyh1]

Wow, CAPE10 finally dropped below 27 - at 26.74 Friday. A lot of froth has come out of the market. It had exceeded 33 in Jan and again in August this year. Now back to 2nd half 2016 valuations.

It will probably still take a while for things to settle, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see even more selling for a while. These kind of sell-offs tend to undershoot.

 

[Dtail]

Wow, CAPE10 finally dropped below 27 - at 26.74 Friday. A lot of froth has come out of the market. It had exceeded 33 in Jan and again in August this year. Now back to 2nd half 2016 valuations.

It will probably still take a while for things to settle, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see even more selling for a while. These kind of sell-offs tend to undershoot.

Hard to imagine it going all the way back to 15 ratio at the start of bull market.

You might get to employ your Cape 10 AA decision making strategy though soon enough.

 

[dunkelblau]

Those who believe/fear it is headed lower.

Also those who have margin calls, and those who want to harvest tax losses this year. Since this dip seems relatively uniform I've done some horse switching to offset a few large gains I took in 1Q. Maybe premature but I've been a net buyer, for me the past couple of months more than the previous ten-- in case we get an unusually strong January effect in 2019.