Join Early Retirement Today
Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
Sell in May and Go Away?
Old 05-10-2016, 02:09 PM   #1
Recycles dryer sheets
ScaredtoQuit's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Posts: 187
Sell in May and Go Away?

Can someone please remind me why we're not supposed to time investments? As of today, my portfolio of individual dividend stocks and bonds has reached a return of 10.7% for the year to date period. Meanwhile, I believe that many of my holdings are wildly over-priced. e.g. Realty Income Corp at $64, Johnson & Johnson at $115, and Phillip Morris at $102. My training tells me to ignore the urge to sell. But my gut tells me that that with today's economy we're just not going to see prices like this for the rest of the year!

Well, is my support group ready?
__________________

__________________
ScaredtoQuit is offline   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Old 05-10-2016, 02:17 PM   #2
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Dash man's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2013
Location: Limerick
Posts: 1,476
I typically sell some losers for the tax loss this time of year and keep it in cash until I find something worth buying. Otherwise I stay put unless the fundamentals of a specific stock degrade.


Sent from my iPhone using Early Retirement Forum
__________________

__________________
Dash man is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 05-10-2016, 02:43 PM   #3
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: May 2014
Location: Utrecht
Posts: 2,050
Philip Morris is up partly because the USD is down again vs. the Euro.

I own em too
__________________
Totoro is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-10-2016, 03:04 PM   #4
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 8,248
You are supposed to time investments ... or at least rebalance every once in a while.

I can interpret what you wrote as "I have two portfolios, one of individual stocks and bonds and my other one. The first one is doing great and the second one is doing OK. However, the first one is only 1% of the value of the other one."

Of course, my interpretation could be completely bogus.
__________________
LOL! is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-10-2016, 04:22 PM   #5
Recycles dryer sheets
ScaredtoQuit's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Posts: 187
I can interpret what you wrote as "I have two portfolios, one of individual stocks and bonds and my other one. The first one is doing great and the second one is doing OK. However, the first one is only 1% of the value of the other one."

Why did you think that? Was my message unclear? I have one portfolio and it's made up of individual stocks and bonds.
__________________
ScaredtoQuit is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-10-2016, 05:03 PM   #6
gone traveling
 
Join Date: Sep 2013
Posts: 1,248
Quote:
Originally Posted by Totoro View Post
Philip Morris is up partly because the USD is down again vs. the Euro.

I own em too
I owned MO long before it spinned-off PM. Great investment that we still fully own.
__________________
eta2020 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-10-2016, 06:53 PM   #7
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 8,248
Quote:
Originally Posted by ScaredtoQuit View Post
Why did you think that? Was my message unclear? I have one portfolio and it's made up of individual stocks and bonds.
So you can coast the rest of the year then simply by using a mutual fund with your desired asset allocation. That is, if you have no tax consequences to sell and buy.

What other advice can we give you?
__________________
LOL! is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-11-2016, 03:30 AM   #8
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
target2019's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2008
Posts: 3,536
Quote:
Originally Posted by ScaredtoQuit View Post
Can someone please remind me why we're not supposed to time investments? As of today, my portfolio of individual dividend stocks and bonds has reached a return of 10.7% for the year to date period. Meanwhile, I believe that many of my holdings are wildly over-priced. e.g. Realty Income Corp at $64, Johnson & Johnson at $115, and Phillip Morris at $102. My training tells me to ignore the urge to sell. But my gut tells me that that with today's economy we're just not going to see prices like this for the rest of the year!

Well, is my support group ready?
I see sectors that are still down for past year. Energy? APPL? Some sectors are down, some are up.

The 70/30 portfolio I watch is up only 7.6%. I can suggest some losers for you. LOL.

Serious question - do you monitor positions and sell off when things are too good?

Maybe time for more consumer staples?
__________________
target2019 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-11-2016, 11:17 AM   #9
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: May 2013
Posts: 80
I agree with your assessment. We have had a nice run and I have sold some of my holdings and am sitting on cash waiting for the next correction. Only sold 20% however. JMHO
__________________
LiveBelowMeans is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-13-2016, 12:51 PM   #10
Recycles dryer sheets
ScaredtoQuit's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Posts: 187
It's interesting to read this thread only two months later. Back on May 10th I was seriously thinking of making some adjustments to my portfolio which really amounted to market timing. I was probably still smarting from the 65 bp loss that I realized in 2015. Seeing the possibility of locking in a portion of what was then a 10.7% gain was awfully tempting. I started analyzing my holdings and overall position but somehow I never got around to actually moving any money. Spring forward to July 13th and I'm now up 18.2% for the year to date period. That's a 7.5% increase in just two months. I suppose it all goes to show you why we shouldn't engage in market timing. Who'd have thunk it!!
__________________
ScaredtoQuit is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-13-2016, 03:34 PM   #11
Full time employment: Posting here.
dixonge's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2008
Posts: 790
Quote:
Originally Posted by ScaredtoQuit View Post
Can someone please remind me why we're not supposed to time investments?
I think I found your answer...

Quote:
Originally Posted by ScaredtoQuit View Post
Spring forward to July 13th and I'm now up 18.2% for the year to date period. That's a 7.5% increase in just two months. I suppose it all goes to show you why we shouldn't engage in market timing. Who'd have thunk it!!
You're welcome LOL
__________________
I've wasted way too much time on the internet. A correction is long overdue. Ciao.
dixonge is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-13-2016, 03:58 PM   #12
Recycles dryer sheets
hesperus's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2013
Location: colorado
Posts: 451
You rarely hear back from folks (whether they're all in or all out) when things don't go the way they timed for. Kind of like gambling, as in you don't hear much about the losses...
__________________
hesperus is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-13-2016, 08:14 PM   #13
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
haha's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Hooverville
Posts: 22,202
Quote:
Originally Posted by hesperus View Post
You rarely hear back from folks (whether they're all in or all out) when things don't go the way they timed for. Kind of like gambling, as in you don't hear much about the losses...
The only people I know who like to moan about losses are farmers, the biggest gamblers of all.

Ha
__________________
haha is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 07-13-2016, 08:34 PM   #14
Recycles dryer sheets
CaliKid's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2016
Location: Cali
Posts: 423
Quote:
Originally Posted by ScaredtoQuit View Post
It's interesting to read this thread only two months later. Back on May 10th I was seriously thinking of making some adjustments to my portfolio which really amounted to market timing. I was probably still smarting from the 65 bp loss that I realized in 2015. Seeing the possibility of locking in a portion of what was then a 10.7% gain was awfully tempting. I started analyzing my holdings and overall position but somehow I never got around to actually moving any money. Spring forward to July 13th and I'm now up 18.2% for the year to date period. That's a 7.5% increase in just two months. I suppose it all goes to show you why we shouldn't engage in market timing. Who'd have thunk it!!
Are you selling now? As of now you haven't made a profit. It's all paper. Soooooo... what you going to do?
__________________
______________________
Hoping to get out around September 1, 2022... I hope, I hope, I hope. Until then off to work I go....
CaliKid is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 07-14-2016, 05:23 AM   #15
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: May 2014
Location: Utrecht
Posts: 2,050
Quote:
Originally Posted by haha View Post
The only people I know who like to moan about losses are farmers, the biggest gamblers of all.

Ha
Children too, to their parents.
__________________
Totoro is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-14-2016, 07:01 AM   #16
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Dec 2013
Posts: 96
My Investor Policy Statement (IPS) uses bands and the equities 'sell' band just triggered, so I sold some equities as part of my re-balance process.
__________________
btdt22 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-14-2016, 08:29 AM   #17
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
haha's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Hooverville
Posts: 22,202
If you have a lot of money in tax deferred or tax free vehicles this trading may work. If you have to pay tax it will almost always be negative.

Ha
__________________
haha is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 07-14-2016, 11:05 AM   #18
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Dash man's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2013
Location: Limerick
Posts: 1,476
Over the last year I've moved nearly everything to dividend type stocks and funds, with some in the S&P 500 index to catch some growth and some safe money in CDs. I'm now at a point of earning well into six figures annually and watching the balances grow. As long as dividends aren't significantly cut by too many of the stocks we own, we're happy. I'll keep an eye on company fundamentals, but don't plan on much trading in the future.


Enjoying life!
__________________
Dash man is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 08-11-2016, 05:55 PM   #19
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: Laurel, MD
Posts: 2,674
Glad I didn't.


Sent from my iPhone using Early Retirement Forum
__________________
...with no reasonable expectation for ER, I'm just here auditing the AP class.Retired 8/1/15.
jazz4cash is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 08-11-2016, 06:43 PM   #20
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Jul 2010
Location: Torrance
Posts: 111
My 50/50 is up 6% for the year and 4% since May 10.
__________________

__________________
bob boag is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Sell in May and go away ? frayne FIRE and Money 34 05-27-2014 09:07 PM
Sell in May and Go Away? Mulligan FIRE and Money 70 04-11-2012 08:46 PM
Sell in May and go away ! frayne FIRE and Money 64 06-01-2011 09:23 PM
Sell in May and go away... Steve O FIRE and Money 19 05-05-2010 10:13 PM
"Sell in May and Go Away" tangomonster FIRE and Money 21 05-02-2007 06:48 AM

 

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 08:54 AM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.