Sell in May and Go Away?

[ScaredtoQuit]

Can someone please remind me why we're not supposed to time investments? As of today, my portfolio of individual dividend stocks and bonds has reached a return of 10.7% for the year to date period. Meanwhile, I believe that many of my holdings are wildly over-priced. e.g. Realty Income Corp at $64, Johnson & Johnson at $115, and Phillip Morris at $102. My training tells me to ignore the urge to sell. But my gut tells me that that with today's economy we're just not going to see prices like this for the rest of the year!

Well, is my support group ready?

[Dash man]

I typically sell some losers for the tax loss this time of year and keep it in cash until I find something worth buying. Otherwise I stay put unless the fundamentals of a specific stock degrade.


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[Totoro]

Philip Morris is up partly because the USD is down again vs. the Euro.

I own em too

[LOL!]

You are supposed to time investments ... or at least rebalance every once in a while.

I can interpret what you wrote as "I have two portfolios, one of individual stocks and bonds and my other one. The first one is doing great and the second one is doing OK. However, the first one is only 1% of the value of the other one."

Of course, my interpretation could be completely bogus.

[ScaredtoQuit]

I can interpret what you wrote as "I have two portfolios, one of individual stocks and bonds and my other one. The first one is doing great and the second one is doing OK. However, the first one is only 1% of the value of the other one."

Why did you think that? Was my message unclear? I have one portfolio and it's made up of individual stocks and bonds.

[eta2020]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Totoro Philip Morris is up partly because the USD is down again vs. the Euro. I own em too

I owned MO long before it spinned-off PM. Great investment that we still fully own.

[LOL!]

Quote:

Originally Posted by ScaredtoQuit Why did you think that? Was my message unclear? I have one portfolio and it's made up of individual stocks and bonds.

So you can coast the rest of the year then simply by using a mutual fund with your desired asset allocation. That is, if you have no tax consequences to sell and buy.

What other advice can we give you?

[target2019]

Quote:

Originally Posted by ScaredtoQuit Can someone please remind me why we're not supposed to time investments? As of today, my portfolio of individual dividend stocks and bonds has reached a return of 10.7% for the year to date period. Meanwhile, I believe that many of my holdings are wildly over-priced. e.g. Realty Income Corp at $64, Johnson & Johnson at $115, and Phillip Morris at $102. My training tells me to ignore the urge to sell. But my gut tells me that that with today's economy we're just not going to see prices like this for the rest of the year! Well, is my support group ready?

I see sectors that are still down for past year. Energy? APPL? Some sectors are down, some are up.

The 70/30 portfolio I watch is up only 7.6%. I can suggest some losers for you. LOL.

Serious question - do you monitor positions and sell off when things are too good?

Maybe time for more consumer staples?

[LiveBelowMeans]

I agree with your assessment. We have had a nice run and I have sold some of my holdings and am sitting on cash waiting for the next correction. Only sold 20% however. JMHO

[ScaredtoQuit]

It's interesting to read this thread only two months later. Back on May 10th I was seriously thinking of making some adjustments to my portfolio which really amounted to market timing. I was probably still smarting from the 65 bp loss that I realized in 2015. Seeing the possibility of locking in a portion of what was then a 10.7% gain was awfully tempting. I started analyzing my holdings and overall position but somehow I never got around to actually moving any money. Spring forward to July 13th and I'm now up 18.2% for the year to date period. That's a 7.5% increase in just two months. I suppose it all goes to show you why we shouldn't engage in market timing. Who'd have thunk it!!

[dixonge]

Quote:

Originally Posted by ScaredtoQuit Can someone please remind me why we're not supposed to time investments?

I think I found your answer...

Quote:

Originally Posted by ScaredtoQuit Spring forward to July 13th and I'm now up 18.2% for the year to date period. That's a 7.5% increase in just two months. I suppose it all goes to show you why we shouldn't engage in market timing. Who'd have thunk it!!

You're welcome LOL

[hesperus]

You rarely hear back from folks (whether they're all in or all out) when things don't go the way they timed for. Kind of like gambling, as in you don't hear much about the losses...

[haha]

Quote:

Originally Posted by hesperus You rarely hear back from folks (whether they're all in or all out) when things don't go the way they timed for. Kind of like gambling, as in you don't hear much about the losses...

The only people I know who like to moan about losses are farmers, the biggest gamblers of all.

Ha

[CaliKid]

Quote:

Originally Posted by ScaredtoQuit It's interesting to read this thread only two months later. Back on May 10th I was seriously thinking of making some adjustments to my portfolio which really amounted to market timing. I was probably still smarting from the 65 bp loss that I realized in 2015. Seeing the possibility of locking in a portion of what was then a 10.7% gain was awfully tempting. I started analyzing my holdings and overall position but somehow I never got around to actually moving any money. Spring forward to July 13th and I'm now up 18.2% for the year to date period. That's a 7.5% increase in just two months. I suppose it all goes to show you why we shouldn't engage in market timing. Who'd have thunk it!!

Are you selling now? As of now you haven't made a profit. It's all paper. Soooooo... what you going to do?

[Totoro]

Quote:

Originally Posted by haha The only people I know who like to moan about losses are farmers, the biggest gamblers of all. Ha

Children too, to their parents.

[btdt22]

My Investor Policy Statement (IPS) uses bands and the equities 'sell' band just triggered, so I sold some equities as part of my re-balance process.

[haha]

If you have a lot of money in tax deferred or tax free vehicles this trading may work. If you have to pay tax it will almost always be negative.

Ha

[Dash man]

Over the last year I've moved nearly everything to dividend type stocks and funds, with some in the S&P 500 index to catch some growth and some safe money in CDs. I'm now at a point of earning well into six figures annually and watching the balances grow. As long as dividends aren't significantly cut by too many of the stocks we own, we're happy. I'll keep an eye on company fundamentals, but don't plan on much trading in the future.


Enjoying life!

[jazz4cash]

Glad I didn't.


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[bob boag]

My 50/50 is up 6% for the year and 4% since May 10.