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Old 08-12-2013, 02:02 PM   #41
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I'm hoping Wellington stays open for a few more weeks at least. My spouse and I are both in Wellington through former employer 401k plans, and they just started charging fees for "Tier 4" funds like Vanguard funds, so I figure that's my cue to do rollovers, my 401k into an IRA at Vanguard, itself, and my spouse into her current-employer 401k which offers Vanguard funds (without fee). However, it'll be at least two weeks before the checks get to the respective new custodians. (We'll be out of the market for those two weeks, as well, so I'm hoping we don't miss a big run-up. Ah, the joys^h^h^h^hstresses of personal finance.)
Hey maybe you will get lucky and instead of a big run up, the market will totally tank while your money is in cash-like limbo mode. Then you buy back in and bypass a drop.

<rant mode on>
I hate the way most investment companies move money in a rollover. Passing paper checks around like it's 1913 instead of 2013. We just rolled my wife's 401k to an IRA. It only took 1 week, but it involved a very large check sitting on my front porch for a couple of hours. After 9/11 the "check 21 act" was enacted by congress to allow digital substitution for paper checks in financial transactions. Planes being grounded, and that being the means by which most checks moved at that time, is what prompted this action. So now apparently, the vast majority of checks move electronically. So why do so many investment firms still insist on cutting a paper check? And many (not all) insist on sending you that check so that you can forward it on instead of directly sending it straight to its final destination.
<rant mode off>
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Old 08-13-2013, 02:52 AM   #42
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Personally I doubt Wellesley will close soon, but who knows. It's heavy weighting of bonds is currently less attractive than the dividend/dividend growth stock weighting of Wellington.
Yes. Wellesley has been trailing many other funds, not just Wellington, so I doubt if it has much money inflow. And not just its bond portion, but I suspect its stock component also trails the S&P.

I am a contrarian, and like to buy beaten down stuff, but I would say it is not yet time. The bond run has been going on for a few years, and the correction won't be done for a while. Of course, that is just my opinion.

I do not have a lot in either funds, so I do not bother to trade them. I watch them with an interest of seeing how it works out.
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Old 08-15-2013, 10:41 AM   #43
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<rant mode on>
I hate the way most investment companies move money in a rollover. Passing paper checks around like it's 1913 instead of 2013. We just rolled my wife's 401k to an IRA. It only took 1 week, but it involved a very large check sitting on my front porch for a couple of hours. After 9/11 the "check 21 act" was enacted by congress to allow digital substitution for paper checks in financial transactions. Planes being grounded, and that being the means by which most checks moved at that time, is what prompted this action. So now apparently, the vast majority of checks move electronically. So why do so many investment firms still insist on cutting a paper check? And many (not all) insist on sending you that check so that you can forward it on instead of directly sending it straight to its final destination.
<rant mode off>
It called 'the float', each of the parties get the interest maybe just overnight. Even with our current low interest, it adds up to major amounts of money, all 100% legal.

MRG
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Old 08-16-2013, 10:17 AM   #44
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I have a Vanguard account, mostly in the LifeStrategy Moderate Growth fund. I like the performance of Wellington ... but I tend to be "dumb" about when to move to another fund. Would now be a good time to move into Wellington, or should I wait?
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Old 08-16-2013, 10:21 AM   #45
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I have a Vanguard account, mostly in the LifeStrategy Moderate Growth fund. I like the performance of Wellington ... but I tend to be "dumb" about when to move to another fund. Would now be a good time to move into Wellington, or should I wait?
Why do you want to move from LifeStrategy Moderate Growth to Wellington?
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Old 08-16-2013, 01:12 PM   #46
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I guess I don't necessarily except that Wellington seems to perform at about 2% better (historical).
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Old 08-16-2013, 02:20 PM   #47
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So, for reversion to the mean, does that mean we won't see another 50% drop in the next century?
Looking at reversion to mean, it seems the general market might have to go down. Chart from Doug Shorts.

Regression to Trend: A Perspective on Long-Term Market Performance
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Old 08-16-2013, 03:18 PM   #48
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I just now realized that I was too obtuse.

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How Often Do Market Corrections Happen? | The Investment Fiduciary

Magnitude of market declineFrequency of occurrence
>5%Every Year
>10%Every two years
>20%Every five years
>30%Every ten years
>40%Every twenty-five years
>50%Every fifty years

I make no representation as to the accuracy...
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A 50 percent loss every fifty years? We had a few 50% losses in a span of eight years. But since the losses extended over 12 months, it doesn't show up in these stats.
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So, for reversion to the mean, does that mean we won't see another 50% drop in the next century?

I hope this points out the peril of using long-term statistics for something with a short history like the US stock market.

Again, see The Retirement Calculator from Hell, Part III.
I was teasing about the statistics that a huge decline only occurs once in 50 years. Because we had the most 2 recent ones within 10 years, for the stats to hold we would need the next one to be way out in the future to make up for the past occurrences.

I know very little about baseball, but would venture that talking about 50 years statistics with the US stock market is like talking about batting average of a rookie.
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Old 08-16-2013, 03:36 PM   #49
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I've lived through several 500 year floods in the last 50 years. Does that mean that I'm good for the rest of my life?
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Old 08-16-2013, 03:41 PM   #50
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I've lived through several 500 year floods in the last 50 years. Does that mean that I'm good for the rest of my life?
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Old 08-16-2013, 03:50 PM   #51
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I've lived through several 500 year floods in the last 50 years. Does that mean that I'm good for the rest of my life?
Just move to Texas. You will be in one heck of a drought which, if it continues, will set a new record.
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Old 08-16-2013, 04:06 PM   #52
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Just move to Texas. You will be in one heck of a drought which, if it continues, will set a new record.
+1

We would welcome a flood.

I've been pumping water from our well to the new neighbors across the road. The water table dropped below the level of his pump two days ago and his submersible pump burned up. He'll find out when they try to pull it next week if he can get away with a new pump set to a lower level (~$5,000) or if his pump is fused in the well requiring he drill a new one (~$25,000).

They bought the place last month and are wondering why...
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Old 08-16-2013, 04:19 PM   #53
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+1

We would welcome a flood.

I've been pumping water from our well to the new neighbors across the road. The water table dropped below the level of his pump two days ago and his submersible pump burned up. He'll find out when they try to pull it next week if he can get away with a new pump set to a lower level (~$5,000) or if his pump is fused in the well requiring he drill a new one (~$25,000).

They bought the place last month and are wondering why...
Ouch. My Sister is in Austin, I hear about what used to be Lake Travis. Hope you get water soon.

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Old 08-16-2013, 05:01 PM   #54
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Just move to Texas. You will be in one heck of a drought which, if it continues, will set a new record.
Yep, worked in farming for a few years no matter what there's always a problem - too much or too little. Then you get just enough rain , like everyone else, crop prices drop due to high production and you still can't win.
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Old 08-16-2013, 05:41 PM   #55
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We then do not need evacuated pipes to transport people. What is more pressing is pipes filled with water, in order to move it from places where we have too much to where we do not have enough. Not sexy, not high-tech, but more practical to me, an ex high-tech worker.
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Old 08-16-2013, 05:42 PM   #56
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We then do not need evacuated pipes to transport people. What is more pressing is pipes filled with water, in order to move it from places where we have too much to where we do not have enough. Not sexy, not high-tech, but more practical to me, an ex high-tech worker.
+1
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Old 08-16-2013, 06:22 PM   #57
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Sorry about the ad. I couldn't find a clip without advertising.
Some random events do not depend on the past. A dice does not "remember" that it just showed a 6 on the last toss, hence is just as likely to show another 6 on the current toss. I believe those that involve human endeavors do carry a relationship to the more recent past. I am not an economist to know if anyone has looked into this, but as a layman, I think it is reasonable to expect that economic events such as real estate bubbles would be spaced out in time, and the frequency of repeats is a function of the collective human memory.

But then, people tend to have shorter and shorter memory these days. And if that presumption is true, then as they do not remember the past, they tend to repeat it at shorter intervals. How long until someone tries Marx's theory again?

Back on Garp and his home, the occurrence of a future hapless pilot would not have any relationship to the current one, so his thinking that the home has been "predisastered" would be false.

But if his home is in the approach path to an airport, then perhaps that accident might even be foretelling of more to come.
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Old 08-18-2013, 06:16 AM   #58
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The next step for Wellington would be to close it to all new investors, including those buying through vanguard. The current restrictions hurt me because I hadn't added Wellington in my largest account, the self directed portion of my 401k. I can't move that either.
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Old 08-18-2013, 07:14 AM   #59
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Hopefully they'll hold off until my rollover check makes it to Vanguard.

Does anyone know who long in advance they announce such closures?
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Old 08-18-2013, 07:20 AM   #60
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I wonder if Wellington is the new Magellan.
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