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Signs of Recession or More Noise?
07-14-2019, 01:34 PM
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#1
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: May 2013
Location: ATL --> Flyover Country
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Signs of Recession or More Noise?
I was listening to the "trucking" station on Sirius XM yesterday and they were discussing the current self-described freight recession. I was somewhat shocked to hear that many of the trucking companies have had pretty bad numbers going back for a while. Over the last 52 weeks, some of the biggest players:
JB Hunt; stock down 23%
Schnieder; down 34%
Knight Swift; down 12%
Arcbest; down 39%
Also,
Quote:
New truck orders soared in June, July and August of 2018 (SONAR: ORDERS.CL8), typically the three slowest order months of the year. Fleets raced to place orders so they could have new equipment to take advantage of a hot freight market. That led truck makers to pull ahead business that typically is booked in the fall.
Orders began to ease in November 2018, and have been lower every month on a year-over-year basis since. The 13,100 orders placed in June compared with 42,200 placed in the same month last year.
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https://www.freightwaves.com/news/ac...in-a-recession
Granted, this is a small sliver of the economy in general, but it seems as though it's been largely ignored.
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07-14-2019, 02:03 PM
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#2
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Administrator
Join Date: Apr 2006
Posts: 22,923
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Hard to say whether it is a signal or not. If truck deliveries of goods are dropping off, you might expect to see an effect on the downstream side, specifically the volume of trash. Yet Waste Management is up 40% in the past year.
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07-14-2019, 02:31 PM
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#4
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
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In contrast with the Dow Jones Transport, the Baltic Dry Index is at an all-time high.
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07-14-2019, 02:51 PM
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#5
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
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Interesting. Gotta love how numbers can be skewed to push a story and/or agenda.
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07-14-2019, 03:17 PM
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#6
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Eastern WV Panhandle
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Mere noise.
What really matters is Bangladesh Butter Production. Even Forbes says so: https://www.forbes.com/sites/moneybu.../#58730801df85
Quote:
Bangladesh butter production surged in February, as moderating grain prices allowed Bangladeshi dairy farmers to boost production by getting higher milk yields from their existing stock of cows. Meanwhile, butter production in neighboring India dropped significantly in February, as a change in government farm subsidies forced Indian dairy farmers to cull their herds. With Bangladeshi butter production set to rise further, we should be looking at a massive rally in the S&P 500 throughout March and April.
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07-14-2019, 03:59 PM
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#7
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jan 2017
Location: Hog Mountian
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Walt34
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Mmmnn. Butter. Gonna put some on my ribeye tonight. Garlic butter. Since I'll be using Irish butter, the Bangladeshi market will likely tank tomorrow. FWIW, I don't us JB Hunt to deliver my butter. Not yet. Getting by with YRC.
YMMV!
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07-14-2019, 06:14 PM
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#8
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Jan 2018
Posts: 186
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Predicting recession is not much more reliable than the weather.
Seems like their is always an unexpected gotcha to explain why the always accurate method failed.
Personally I would like to see a correction sooner than later but that is for my own selfish goals.
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07-14-2019, 06:42 PM
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#9
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Oct 2010
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We had a correction last year. Did everyone miss it?
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07-14-2019, 06:47 PM
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#10
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gone traveling
Join Date: Mar 2015
Posts: 3,508
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First it's the yield curve inversion, now trucking is taking a sharp U turn.
It's either the sign of the apocalypse or a sign or a recession.
I guess I'll just remain calm and carry on.
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07-14-2019, 06:49 PM
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#11
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gone traveling
Join Date: Mar 2015
Posts: 3,508
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jimbee
We had a correction last year. Did everyone miss it?
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I for one miss it almost every day. It was a good correction.
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07-14-2019, 06:57 PM
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#12
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Oct 2002
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Posts: 3,871
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Seems like more trucks on the road than ever.
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07-14-2019, 07:10 PM
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#13
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gone traveling
Join Date: Mar 2015
Posts: 3,508
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Quote:
Originally Posted by frayne
Seems like more trucks on the road than ever.
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Thus the noise!
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07-14-2019, 07:44 PM
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#14
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: Laurel, MD
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ExFlyBoy5
I was listening to the "trucking" station on Sirius XM yesterday and they were discussing the current self-described freight recession. I was somewhat shocked to hear that many of the trucking companies have had pretty bad numbers going back for a while. Over the last 52 weeks, some of the biggest players:
JB Hunt; stock down 23%
Schnieder; down 34%
Knight Swift; down 12%
Arcbest; down 39%
Also,
https://www.freightwaves.com/news/ac...in-a-recession
Granted, this is a small sliver of the economy in general, but it seems as though it's been largely ignored.
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At first glance, I thought these were declines in revenue for the listed truckers, then I realized it was share price. Anecdotally I was out late last night and noticed the huge overflow of trucks from the truck rest stop onto the shoulders of the interstate.
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07-14-2019, 09:59 PM
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#15
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Full time employment: Posting here.
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Well the guy running for president to promote his basic guaranteed income model (One thousand dollars per adult) uses the trucking industry disruption by AI as a doomed industry. At least for the workers. And the companies will have to completely re tool their fleets to compete. And Amazon is gearing up to be its own delivery company.
I worry when you guys worry -so now I'm worried.
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07-14-2019, 10:16 PM
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#16
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i make plans when others worry ( can i exploit the trend if the worries are well founded AND unfoundered , or should carefully edge for the sidelines while i atill have a profit ... stuff like that )
is the US ( or even Australia ) traveling along nice and dandy ( not a chance )
but is it a little cloudy or a storm coming
the yield curve inversion is normally a forward indicator of 12 to 18 months into the future ( certainly a nice amount of time to start hatching a plan for 'what if ' )
and depending on your perspictives the US isn't the only weakening ( or weak ) economy so a shock in say , Japan or Korea might be just as disruptive
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07-15-2019, 04:27 AM
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#17
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
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On Friday, JBHT popped 5.9%.
"Analysts are expecting J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc. JBHT to have earned $1.35 per share on revenue of $2.26 billion in the latest quarter. J.B. Hunt shares climbed 5.9% to close at $92.94 on Friday"
https://www.benzinga.com/news/earnin...r-july-15-2019
Will a thud today (Monday) follow the pop (Friday)?
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07-15-2019, 04:55 AM
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#18
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
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Quote:
Originally Posted by KenZ71
Predicting recession is not much more reliable than the weather.
Seems like their is always an unexpected gotcha to explain why the always accurate method failed.
Personally I would like to see a correction sooner than later but that is for my own selfish goals.
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Seems like weather prediction these days is far more reliable than recession prediction - certainly short term.
Remember around Xmas 2018? Almost a bear market.
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Retired since summer 1999.
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07-15-2019, 05:00 AM
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#19
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Feb 2017
Posts: 180
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Red Badger
Mmmnn. Butter. Gonna put some on my ribeye tonight. Garlic butter. Since I'll be using Irish butter, the Bangladeshi market will likely tank tomorrow. FWIW, I don't us JB Hunt to deliver my butter. Not yet. Getting by with YRC.
YMMV!
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I'm not so sure about YRC they lost our pallet from Anchor Hocking containing of all things butter dishes. We had to have it reshipped, it was delivered this time by Ross Express. The driver who I see often said he is out straight doing deliveries and pickups.
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07-15-2019, 05:03 AM
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#20
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Dec 2008
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This article is about a small trucking company that shut its doors without warning. Amazon as a competitor is mentioned.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ltl-c...165205488.html
Another thought is that it is possible for a sub-sector to be in a recession. Doesn't necessarily mean it's a signal for complete economic downturn.
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