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Old 03-11-2019, 07:54 PM   #301
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Hi guys, sorry for not being clear, yes my intention was to mean that the PUTs are cash secured, so it is okay if SPY goes down to 150. I am okay to pick up SPY at 250. The reason I want 50% short PUTs and 50% cash is because I am not sure if markets will really go below 250, so the PUTs give me some extra income.

However, all the above now seems irrelevant, markets shot up yesterday like crazy and I sold only 1 PUT, I should have sold atleast 4. Now the PUT price has come down from 8.5 to 6.7.
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Old 03-13-2019, 09:02 AM   #302
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Damn! The market keeps rising. It is as if the natural course of the market is to creep up every day. I wonder is it worth staying out of this market?
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Old 03-13-2019, 09:09 AM   #303
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Damn! The market keeps rising. It is as if the natural course of the market is to creep up every day. I wonder is it worth staying out of this market?
It's a shame the obvious only becomes clear in hindsight.

Scroll down to the "Buy, Hold… Profit?" graphic and view the 1, 5, 10 and 20 year market returns:

U.S. Stock Market Returns – 1870s to Present
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Old 03-13-2019, 09:46 AM   #304
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Damn! The market keeps rising. It is as if the natural course of the market is to creep up every day. I wonder is it worth staying out of this market?
The natural course of the market *is* to "creep up". Over time. Inch by inch. In a bull market, there will be many creep up days with some occasional big down days. In a bear market, there are many down days with some occasional big up days.

In the long run (tm), markets should reflect increases in wealth caused by increases in productivity. These are incremental and build on itself over a period of years and decades. That is why it is so important to realize that the "market" (or more accurately being the market as a measurement of wealth) is not a zero-sum game.

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Old 03-14-2019, 02:19 AM   #305
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The natural course of the market *is* to "creep up". Over time. Inch by inch. In a bull market, there will be many creep up days with some occasional big down days. In a bear market, there are many down days with some occasional big up days.



In the long run (tm), markets should reflect increases in wealth caused by increases in productivity. These are incremental and build on itself over a period of years and decades. That is why it is so important to realize that the "market" (or more accurately being the market as a measurement of wealth) is not a zero-sum game.



The thing is long term can be very long. Just like we had a 10 year extraordinary bull run, what if we have a 10 year bear market and still in the long run, we will be okay. But how many of us will be patient for 10 years?
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Old 03-17-2019, 06:40 PM   #306
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The thing is long term can be very long. Just like we had a 10 year extraordinary bull run, what if we have a 10 year bear market and still in the long run, we will be okay. But how many of us will be patient for 10 years?
Not many. But I've been investing since 1978, so I've seen my fair share of up and down markets.

So, have you sold everything?
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Old 03-22-2019, 08:06 PM   #307
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Not many. But I've been investing since 1978, so I've seen my fair share of up and down markets.



So, have you sold everything?
Yes, only 10% invested in stocks. I sold when SPY was at 275, so still down on that trade.
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Old 03-22-2019, 08:47 PM   #308
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Damn! The market keeps rising. It is as if the natural course of the market is to creep up every day. I wonder is it worth staying out of this market?
Oh well, three steps forward, two steps back.....
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Old 03-22-2019, 10:41 PM   #309
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It's a shame the obvious only becomes clear in hindsight.

Scroll down to the "Buy, Hold… Profit?" graphic and view the 1, 5, 10 and 20 year market returns:

U.S. Stock Market Returns – 1870s to Present
A shame comes in many forms.....

I have this family property, my grandfather built in 1919, he spent $2,000 building the place (and maybe the land).

It's worth about 80K today.

I look at the chart and wish he had put it in the stock market instead, then it would be worth $14,807,557.oo

arrrrrrrgggggghhhhhhh...
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Old 03-28-2019, 12:24 PM   #310
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So right here at 2666-2670 is a good spot to put another 1% of one's portfolio back in @2475 puts a few months out. Just sayin............
So, been two months and I don't think this one panned out as you expected, and that's good news. I do appreciate you sharing insights. Interesting to see another perspective.
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Old 03-31-2019, 09:05 AM   #311
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So, been two months and I don't think this one panned out as you expected, and that's good news. I do appreciate you sharing insights. Interesting to see another perspective.
Goes to show nobody knows anything.
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Old 03-31-2019, 09:50 AM   #312
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Not really. It more shows that sometimes someone is wrong, at least for a while.

Ha
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Old 03-31-2019, 07:09 PM   #313
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Not really. It more shows that sometimes someone is wrong, at least for a while.

Ha
Which is a polite way of saying nobody knows anything. I mean yes you can be excellent at predicting twelve of the next three recessions...
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Old 03-31-2019, 08:54 PM   #314
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So, been two months and I don't think this one panned out as you expected, and that's good news. I do appreciate you sharing insights. Interesting to see another perspective.
Yes my one percent position in puts in this quarter did not work out on that one aspect of my portfolio.

At this point we are almost exactly back to where the S&P 500 was on October 7th, about 50 pts lower actually, when I made the original put purchase what has happened outside of this thread:
1) Fed has gone from 3-4 expected rate increases in 2019 to none and is stopping bond sales in August and market is predicting a 80% chance for a rate DECLINE by December.
2) Fed cut outlook on growth for 2019 from 2.5% to 2.1%

The FED has inspired one of the great stock market rallies in the last quarter and it appears the FED policy is to not allow for bear markets.

The fall in stock prices did allow me to get into several stocks that fell into a valuation that I considered much better than before and I am now have re-established some individual stocks in my portfolio.

I am not at all displeased with what has transpired, I was shocked that the FED raised rates in December, it seemed obvious to me the economy could not handle. I am very pleased with my portfolio performance over the past 6 months.
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