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11-17-2018, 05:47 AM
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#1
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Mar 2011
Posts: 4,966
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So Much for the Experts
Back in January when the market was on fire, I saved the following CNBC article and set my calendar to check back on it today.
In short it says that: "...When January is higher, the final 11 months rise by an average of 12 percent, according to Detrick's calculations. When the S&P 500's gains are 5 percent or more, as it is tracking this year, the final 11 months surged an average 16 percent...."
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/29/stoc...-60-years.html
With 6 weeks left in the year, I think I can safely say 'that ain't gonna happen'.
So, another 'expert' who's calculations and charts didn't mean a thing.
FWIW
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Retired @ 52 in 2005
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11-17-2018, 06:04 AM
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#2
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Dryer sheet aficionado
Join Date: Aug 2018
Posts: 33
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There are so many market gimmicks. Wish the talking heads presented them as such. The best use of “historical” observation is how FireCalc does it.
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11-17-2018, 06:33 AM
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#3
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Rio Grande Valley
Posts: 20,147
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Yeah it’s like rattling off sports statistics. Mostly a time filler, but announcers love to look smart and sound important.......
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Retired since summer 1999.
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11-17-2018, 07:17 AM
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#4
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Nov 2016
Posts: 1,779
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That is interesting everyone has their prediction and that is all they are is a guess. Thanks
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11-17-2018, 07:32 AM
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#5
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Jul 2017
Location: Long Island
Posts: 544
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Watched it. Made me think of the caveat, past performance is no guarantee of future returns.
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Use it up, wear it out, make it do or do without.
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11-17-2018, 07:37 AM
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#6
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Washington, DC
Posts: 9,061
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So we can expect a huuuge rally, right?
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Every man is, or hopes to be, an Idler. -- Samuel Johnson
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11-17-2018, 07:58 AM
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#7
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Moderator Emeritus
Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 17,063
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 Quote:
Originally Posted by audreyh1
Yeah it’s like rattling off sports statistics. Mostly a time filler, but announcers love to look smart and sound important.......
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And as with sports, someone will add a qualifying statistic to prove the theory, like “except in years where the dollar fell and the first snowfall north of the Mason-Dixon line happened on November 1...”
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“Would you like an adventure now, or would you like to have your tea first?” J.M. Barrie, Peter Pan
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11-17-2018, 08:44 AM
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#8
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jan 2018
Location: Tampa
Posts: 2,272
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I wonder if the positive prediction and negative prediction accuracy %'s are similar?
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TGIM
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11-17-2018, 09:07 AM
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#9
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Northern IL
Posts: 20,111
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Fun to look back, thanks.
And yet, a poster on this forum is giving great weight to some statistic about gains in the market after a midterm election (1st term midterm?). Or was that "1st term midterm in years where the dollar fell and the first snowfall north of the Mason-Dixon line happened on November 1...”"? <credit to BWE in previous post> 
-ERD50
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11-17-2018, 09:34 AM
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#10
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 22,254
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The big deadly fire in California jinxed everything. All that historical statistics thrown out the door.
Sell, sell, sell...
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"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that can happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky
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11-17-2018, 09:36 AM
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#11
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 7,725
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NW-Bound
The big deadly fire in California jinxed everything. All that historical statistics thrown out the door.
Sell, sell, sell...
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Yeah but home builder stocks gonna be on FIRE! (too soon??)
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Retired in 2013 at age 33. Keeping busy reading, blogging, relaxing, gaming, and enjoying the outdoors with my wife and 3 kids (6, 12, and 13).
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11-17-2018, 10:57 AM
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#12
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Jun 2018
Posts: 99
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FUEGO
Yeah but home builder stocks gonna be on FIRE! (too soon??)
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Just soon enough 
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11-17-2018, 11:05 AM
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#13
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Rio Grande Valley
Posts: 20,147
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FUEGO
Yeah but home builder stocks gonna be on FIRE! (too soon??)
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Unfortunately home builder business has been dropping due to higher rates. Not sure if California can counteract.
There is a recent pop up, but small compare to the larger drop.
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/16/home...-in-store.html
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Retired since summer 1999.
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11-17-2018, 12:33 PM
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#14
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Mar 2013
Location: Coronado
Posts: 894
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Quote:
Originally Posted by marko
In short it says that: "...When January is higher, the final 11 months rise by an average of 12 percent, according to Detrick's calculations. When the S&P 500's gains are 5 percent or more, as it is tracking this year, the final 11 months surged an average 16 percent...."
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The thing about averages is that they don't tell you very much about the underlying data. How many data points does he have, and what is the shape of the curve and how thick are the tails? What if this has happened four times before and the two outcomes were increases of 1%, 2%, 22%, 23% ... it's completely true that the average increase in this made up scenario is 12%, but I'll bet you don't think that's the most likely outcome.
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11-17-2018, 01:24 PM
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#15
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Administrator
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Rocky Inlets
Posts: 27,594
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Quote:
Originally Posted by marko
So, another 'expert' who's calculations and charts didn't mean a thing.
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Not sure why, but whenever I see a question / answer about a stock market forecast, this clip always comes to mind
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11-17-2018, 03:40 PM
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#16
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Mar 2015
Posts: 1,778
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Quote:
Originally Posted by marko
Back in January when the market was on fire, I saved the following CNBC article and set my calendar to check back on it today.
In short it says that: "...When January is higher, the final 11 months rise by an average of 12 percent, according to Detrick's calculations. When the S&P 500's gains are 5 percent or more, as it is tracking this year, the final 11 months surged an average 16 percent...."
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/29/stoc...-60-years.html
With 6 weeks left in the year, I think I can safely say 'that ain't gonna happen'. |
Maybe you missed the word "average"?
I'll bet adding this year's data to the mix doesn't move the average much, if at all.
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Old enough to know better.
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11-17-2018, 04:13 PM
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#17
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Oct 2010
Posts: 4,652
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ERD50
Fun to look back, thanks.
And yet, a poster on this forum is giving great weight to some statistic about gains in the market after a midterm election (1st term midterm?). Or was that "1st term midterm in years where the dollar fell and the first snowfall north of the Mason-Dixon line happened on November 1...”"? <credit to BWE in previous post>
-ERD50 |
That one bothered me because it was very specific about the span of time in those specific few years...the measurement was 6 or so months after the election. What about 4 or 8 months? I wonder. If you have 18 data points selected from a possible 1000, you're bound to find a pattern if you check them all. And it holds true until it doesn't.
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11-17-2018, 05:24 PM
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#18
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Bend
Posts: 708
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Quote:
Originally Posted by donheff
So we can expect a huuuge rally, right?
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Santa Claus rally is coming!!!
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