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So Much for the Experts
Old 11-17-2018, 05:47 AM   #1
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So Much for the Experts

Back in January when the market was on fire, I saved the following CNBC article and set my calendar to check back on it today.

In short it says that: "...When January is higher, the final 11 months rise by an average of 12 percent, according to Detrick's calculations. When the S&P 500's gains are 5 percent or more, as it is tracking this year, the final 11 months surged an average 16 percent...."

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/29/stoc...-60-years.html

With 6 weeks left in the year, I think I can safely say 'that ain't gonna happen'.

So, another 'expert' who's calculations and charts didn't mean a thing.

FWIW
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Old 11-17-2018, 06:04 AM   #2
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There are so many market gimmicks. Wish the talking heads presented them as such. The best use of “historical” observation is how FireCalc does it.
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Old 11-17-2018, 06:33 AM   #3
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Yeah it’s like rattling off sports statistics. Mostly a time filler, but announcers love to look smart and sound important.......
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Old 11-17-2018, 07:17 AM   #4
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That is interesting everyone has their prediction and that is all they are is a guess. Thanks
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Old 11-17-2018, 07:32 AM   #5
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Watched it. Made me think of the caveat, past performance is no guarantee of future returns.
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Old 11-17-2018, 07:37 AM   #6
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So we can expect a huuuge rally, right?
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Old 11-17-2018, 07:58 AM   #7
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Yeah it’s like rattling off sports statistics. Mostly a time filler, but announcers love to look smart and sound important.......
And as with sports, someone will add a qualifying statistic to prove the theory, like “except in years where the dollar fell and the first snowfall north of the Mason-Dixon line happened on November 1...”
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Old 11-17-2018, 08:44 AM   #8
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I wonder if the positive prediction and negative prediction accuracy %'s are similar?
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Old 11-17-2018, 09:07 AM   #9
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Fun to look back, thanks.

And yet, a poster on this forum is giving great weight to some statistic about gains in the market after a midterm election (1st term midterm?). Or was that "1st term midterm in years where the dollar fell and the first snowfall north of the Mason-Dixon line happened on November 1...”"? <credit to BWE in previous post>

-ERD50
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Old 11-17-2018, 09:34 AM   #10
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The big deadly fire in California jinxed everything. All that historical statistics thrown out the door.

Sell, sell, sell...
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Old 11-17-2018, 09:36 AM   #11
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The big deadly fire in California jinxed everything. All that historical statistics thrown out the door.

Sell, sell, sell...
Yeah but home builder stocks gonna be on FIRE! (too soon??)
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Old 11-17-2018, 10:57 AM   #12
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Yeah but home builder stocks gonna be on FIRE! (too soon??)
Just soon enough
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Old 11-17-2018, 11:05 AM   #13
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Yeah but home builder stocks gonna be on FIRE! (too soon??)
Unfortunately home builder business has been dropping due to higher rates. Not sure if California can counteract.

There is a recent pop up, but small compare to the larger drop.
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/16/home...-in-store.html
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Old 11-17-2018, 12:33 PM   #14
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In short it says that: "...When January is higher, the final 11 months rise by an average of 12 percent, according to Detrick's calculations. When the S&P 500's gains are 5 percent or more, as it is tracking this year, the final 11 months surged an average 16 percent...."
The thing about averages is that they don't tell you very much about the underlying data. How many data points does he have, and what is the shape of the curve and how thick are the tails? What if this has happened four times before and the two outcomes were increases of 1%, 2%, 22%, 23% ... it's completely true that the average increase in this made up scenario is 12%, but I'll bet you don't think that's the most likely outcome.
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Old 11-17-2018, 01:24 PM   #15
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So, another 'expert' who's calculations and charts didn't mean a thing.
Not sure why, but whenever I see a question / answer about a stock market forecast, this clip always comes to mind

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Old 11-17-2018, 03:40 PM   #16
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Originally Posted by marko View Post
Back in January when the market was on fire, I saved the following CNBC article and set my calendar to check back on it today.

In short it says that: "...When January is higher, the final 11 months rise by an average of 12 percent, according to Detrick's calculations. When the S&P 500's gains are 5 percent or more, as it is tracking this year, the final 11 months surged an average 16 percent...."

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/29/stoc...-60-years.html

With 6 weeks left in the year, I think I can safely say 'that ain't gonna happen'.
Maybe you missed the word "average"?

I'll bet adding this year's data to the mix doesn't move the average much, if at all.
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Old 11-17-2018, 04:13 PM   #17
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Fun to look back, thanks.

And yet, a poster on this forum is giving great weight to some statistic about gains in the market after a midterm election (1st term midterm?). Or was that "1st term midterm in years where the dollar fell and the first snowfall north of the Mason-Dixon line happened on November 1...”"? <credit to BWE in previous post>

-ERD50
That one bothered me because it was very specific about the span of time in those specific few years...the measurement was 6 or so months after the election. What about 4 or 8 months? I wonder. If you have 18 data points selected from a possible 1000, you're bound to find a pattern if you check them all. And it holds true until it doesn't.
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Old 11-17-2018, 05:24 PM   #18
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So we can expect a huuuge rally, right?
Santa Claus rally is coming!!!
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