Grep said:Now and then I feel tempted to buy an individual stock such as GE. I then take a moment to add up how much of a stock I already own through mutual funds.
That is kind of funny, for me, now and then I feel tempted to buy a mutual fund. Then I take a moment to add up how much of the stocks they have that I already own
I've read this, too. Wm Bernstein thinks it ain't so.I'm not against holding individual stocks, by the way, and I've seen the studies that holding ~30 stocks provides reasonable diversity.
To be blunt, if you think that you can do an adequate job of minimizing portfolio risk with 15 or 30 stocks, then you are imperiling your financial future and the future of those who depend on you. The reason is simple: There are critically important dimensions of portfolio risk beyond standard deviation. The most important is so-called Terminal Wealth Dispersion (TWD). In other words, it is quite possible (in fact, as we shall soon see, quite easy) to put together a 15-stock or 30-stock portfolio with a very low SD, but whose lousy returns will put you in the poorhouse.
a grossly disproportionate fraction of the total return [of the S&P 500] came from a very few "superstocks" like Dell Computer, which increased in value over 550 times. If you didn’t have one of the half-dozen or so of these in your portfolio, then you badly lagged the market. (The odds of owing one of the 10 superstocks are approximately one in six.) Of course, by owning only 15 stocks you also increase your chances of becoming fabulously rich. But unfortunately, in investing, it is all too often true that the same things that maximize your chances of getting rich also maximize your chances of getting poor.
When turds like Welch and Immelt seem sympathetic?
When turds like Welch and Immelt seem sympathetic?
a grossly disproportionate fraction of the total return [of the S&P 500] came from a very few "superstocks" like Dell Computer, which increased in value over 550 times. If you didn’t have one of the half-dozen or so of these in your portfolio, then you badly lagged the market. (The odds of owing one of the 10 superstocks are approximately one in six.) Of course, by owning only 15 stocks you also increase your chances of becoming fabulously rich. But unfortunately, in investing, it is all too often true that the same things that maximize your chances of getting rich also maximize your chances of getting poor.
If I am selecting at random 15 stocks from a 500 stock universe and 10 of them become superstars, would the odds of not selecting one be 490/500 +489/500 .....to 476/500? resulting in a 59.4% chance of not selecting one or better stated a 2 in 5 chance of selecting a superstock with a 15 stock portfolio
Saluki - sounds like you're saying 'now-ish'.
I've read this, too. Wm Bernstein thinks it ain't so.
He echoes your observations on "concentrated positions" as well"
He makes the case here. Interesting reading as always from Bernstein.
Assuming you are not replacing a stock once it's drawn, I think the odds of not drawing one would be 490/500 x 489/499 ............. 476/486, which equal 73.5%. Thus, the odds of selecting a superstock would be 26.5%.
Even if you allowed replacing, the odds of not drawing a superstock would be (490/500)^15 = 73.9%.
... and perhaps on your "Ignore Poster" list as well. No need to be critical of posts that lack analysis-- nothing there to be critical of.So typical of your posts, ladelfina - heavy on the name-calling and light on the analysis.
Per share or for the entire company?GE hits the price of a venti caramel machiatto and i might buy some