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Sold all my stocks
Old 02-22-2018, 07:59 PM   #1
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Sold all my stocks

As of today I am back to 0% stocks. The action of the market and the confidence of the average participant leads me to fear there is shortly to be a move of epic proportions and speed to the downside. Hopefully, I turn out to be wrong but am willing to lose a few percent to the upside to avoid the downside I fear. Last time I sold all was 2007.
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Old 02-22-2018, 08:01 PM   #2
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Welcome to the dark side.

Be prepared for all who will throw stones and label you a market timer.
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Old 02-22-2018, 08:03 PM   #3
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Either very prescient or stupid.
Only time will tell.
Personally, as someone who is all in, I hope for stupid.
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Old 02-22-2018, 08:06 PM   #4
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When will you get buy back in?
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Old 02-22-2018, 08:13 PM   #5
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Sold right before the last major sell off. Excellent! You are smarter than Cramer.
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Old 02-22-2018, 08:16 PM   #6
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So what did you buy with all $$ or are you holding in cash??
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Old 02-22-2018, 08:30 PM   #7
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It's great you sold all in 2007. When did you get back in?

I look forward to seeing the market changes and see what you do in the future.
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Old 02-22-2018, 08:36 PM   #8
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What % of your holdings did stocks represent?
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Old 02-22-2018, 08:55 PM   #9
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Originally Posted by njhowie View Post
Welcome to the dark side.

Be prepared for all who will throw stones and label you a market timer.
Might want to think twice about throwing stones. Running_Man nailed it 10 years ago.
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Old 02-22-2018, 10:21 PM   #10
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I'm not selling anything (on the contrary I am always buying), but I wish the next crash/recession would hurry up and start already. Asset prices are too damn high.

I think this recent panic about inflation is ridiculous. The "bond vigilantes" may demand higher interest rates to buy all the treasuries that are being dumped, but that's not inflation. I stand by my long held belief that real inflation can only occur when there is rampant wage growth. There has been no wage growth for decades, we aren't seeing wage growth, and with all the new job killing tech on the horizon I see zero chance of wage growth in the future.
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Old 02-22-2018, 10:44 PM   #11
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Originally Posted by Running_Man View Post
As of today I am back to 0% stocks. The action of the market and the confidence of the average participant leads me to fear there is shortly to be a move of epic proportions and speed to the downside. Hopefully, I turn out to be wrong but am willing to lose a few percent to the upside to avoid the downside I fear. Last time I sold all was 2007.


This is market timing.... plain and simple.... and it seems that you got one of the calls right last time...

The problem with market timing is that you have to get two calls correct... when to sell and when to buy.... so when did you get back into the market? From what I know (which is not much) one of my BILs sold before the last big drop... but never did get back in... I think he is still mostly cash... it does not matter much as they have pensions that cover all their needs so no big deal...
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Old 02-22-2018, 10:49 PM   #12
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Wow, fascinating. I’ll be very interested to see if you are right this year.

Personally I’ve been surprised the stock market reaction hasn’t been more strongly negative to the recent fast interest rate rises, so my instinct is that there are more shoes to drop.

But I’m sitting on my hands as usual.
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Old 02-23-2018, 12:30 AM   #13
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No name calling or stone throwing from me: market timing is a splendid strategy if you get it right! I don't have the insight to achieve this, but if Running_Man does, good for him.

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The problem with market timing is that you have to get two calls correct... when to sell and when to buy.... so when did you get back into the market?
^^^ This.
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Old 02-23-2018, 12:32 AM   #14
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Haven't sold any stocks.
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Old 02-23-2018, 03:35 AM   #15
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Originally Posted by Running_Man View Post
As of today I am back to 0% stocks. The action of the market and the confidence of the average participant leads me to fear there is shortly to be a move of epic proportions and speed to the downside. Hopefully, I turn out to be wrong but am willing to lose a few percent to the upside to avoid the downside I fear. Last time I sold all was 2007.
Why would you hope you're wrong?
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Old 02-23-2018, 03:58 AM   #16
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Running_Man has taken off his running shoes.
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Old 02-23-2018, 04:25 AM   #17
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This is market timing.... plain and simple.... and it seems that you got one of the calls right last time...

The problem with market timing is that you have to get two calls correct... when to sell and when to buy.
+1. I am solidly against any attempt to time the market. If your chances are even to get each decision right, then 75% of the time your would be better off to wait it out. A 10% correction, which is what we have seen so far, is on average an annual event. If one cannot handle that, then perhaps shocks are not for you at all.
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Old 02-23-2018, 04:32 AM   #18
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As of today I am back to 0% stocks. The action of the market and the confidence of the average participant leads me to fear there is shortly to be a move of epic proportions and speed to the downside.
I've often quoted my neighbor who announced the same thing on the third week of February 2009.
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Old 02-23-2018, 04:32 AM   #19
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Welcome to the dark side.

Be prepared for all who will throw stones and label you a market timer.
Well, isn't someone who sells all there equities because they expect a crash THE very definition of a market timer?
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Old 02-23-2018, 04:50 AM   #20
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Why would you hope you're wrong?
Because he said “epic proportions”? Maybe for the rest of us?
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