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Old 05-11-2013, 10:35 AM   #21
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Originally Posted by utrecht View Post
I lost my secret decoder ring so I really cant understand much of what you are talking about but I do know this...

You may think we are going down from here and you may be right, but the market we are in violates the very definition of a bear market rally. You can not have a bear market rally when you are at a new all time high. A bear market rally occurs when the market is moving up during an overall downward trend. This market is anything but that.
I think the OP is referring to a 500 year chart or something like that. The best I can come up with is this is this DJ chart. If someone produced a chart going back 500 years, I think the period from 2000-present would look very similar to the great depression. That can't be done with DJ, but I think I have seen an attempt at charting back into the middle ages.

In any event, I agree with your thought that we are not in a bear market.
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Old 05-11-2013, 10:43 AM   #22
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Why do you think that? It's 3's ABC = Bear market, while 5's 1-5 = Bull market (5 up, 3 down) in fractals. a 2000-2003 (bear); b 2003-2007 (bear rally); c 2007-2009 (bear) = (A), then 2009 -2013 (bear rally) (B) topping now; next (C) down. Note: abc is a lower degree of trend than (A) (B) (C). Sure we are dealing with count rankings, this being the highest technical count and probabilities, that's given. But I look a technical patterns over much longer time frames, can easily go back to 1929 and show repeating 5-3-5 pattern at different degrees of trend. Unfortunately (B) is the usually the worst before the worst because it is believed to be a true bull market, when (no offense), it's technicians refer to it as a "suckers rally" - markets move up slowly and down fast - (C) down (next) is a killer for most. Watch what happens between now and 2016. 2009-2013 gain will be more than wiped out. There are many other technical factors that support as well: Market is moving higher on increasing lower volume, +++ other technical indicators. Bottom line is most people are not technical market analyst, rather use fundamentals - that what's taught in college. Fundamental analysis will almost always give the wrong buy / sell signal. The last major high degree technical Buy signal was in 1980 when most people sat on the sidelines stuck in a bear market mind set, re., pain index (IR + Unemployment) - when it was time to buy low.
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Old 05-11-2013, 10:46 AM   #23
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Yes, you can chart back to the middle ages and further (not using stock markets of course). This is very likely a Bear Market started in 2000, one degree of trend higher than n 1929. If analysis proves correct, it will be a once in a lifetime event. But opinions differ, time will tell.
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Old 05-11-2013, 10:50 AM   #24
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I don't know what you think you are saying, but this is what I'm hearing

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Old 05-11-2013, 10:56 AM   #25
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PEs even CAPE are still within a reasonable range. Equity prices could push higher as folks seek higher returns but the FED can and will raise rates as necessary (..this time.... I hope.. ). They can also manage financial markets through regulation e.g. raising reserve requirements, lending standards...etc.

When valuations are high you can go to cash and wait for the reversion I suppose...but that could be tricky too.
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Old 05-11-2013, 11:01 AM   #26
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Ok, I give! If interested take a look at this site, lot's of free info: Elliott Wave International: Expert Market Forecasting Using the Elliott Wave Principle

To be somewhat helpful (hopefully), try this if intereted: Learn the Why, What, and How of the Elliott Wave Principle - 3 Free Videos from Elliott Wave International
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Old 05-11-2013, 11:18 AM   #27
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I have had several friends who were successful with trading strategies using technical analysis, for a while. But every single one of them eventually lost most of their stake. The few true believers among them claimed it was due to their missing a pattern. The majority just became disillusioned and don't try to actively trade anymore.

If your system is working for you, I would still caution healthy skepticism. The human brain is very optimized to see patterns, even when they are not there, so it's possible to be seduced by success that isn't based on what you think it's based on. Be careful.
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Old 05-11-2013, 11:25 AM   #28
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Hi & thanks, yes you are correct. There are pattern rankings and if certain technicals indicate you must abandon the current pattern, but maybe not the trend. Think I said when started "it's complex", but hey works for me. Just trading rules to follow and they are not easy, e.g., don't let your emotions get in the way and see things that you want to be there that are not. Big hurdle. Fyi, ex-Marines do well because of the level of discipline they have learned and can keep emotions under control.
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Old 05-11-2013, 12:05 PM   #29
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I don't just use one source, this is another good one: Money and Markets

You can also for a fee see how your bank is rated. Weiss rating are widely recognized as some of, if not, the best. Bank should be rated A to be even considered.
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Old 05-11-2013, 12:29 PM   #30
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Last, if interested, 3 books to consider, 2 are classics, last is relatively new, but very interesting to say the least: 1) "Manias, Panics and Crashes: A History of Financial Crisis" by Charles P. Kindleberger (1st edition 1978; 2) "Extraordinary Popular Delusions the Madness of Crowds" by Charles Mackay (1st Edition 1841); and 3) "The Black Swan - The Impact of the Highly Probable" Nasssim Taleb (2007). Enjoy what you like. All the best.
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Old 05-11-2013, 01:06 PM   #31
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I keep getting confused by 'too' in the title, then I realized maybe he meant to say "Something too ponderous about investments".
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Old 05-11-2013, 01:22 PM   #32
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Hi jon-nyc, no it's my fault, I'm a terrible typist and after I write something I'll revise and then the sentence structure is wrong or confusing (just look at the threads). Seems it's too arduous for me. Actually, it's boring, I'd rather be doing something with more complexity, well I pay for it when there's confusion. I should take more care. Just like my 1st post in the thread, I wrote it very quick and revised and used shorthand words covering a vast array of information. The title should have been: "Something to ponder about investments, other opinions more than welcome" As you see, what I asked for, I got. Anyhow, all the best and thanks. (I hope this is typed right?)
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Old 05-11-2013, 01:59 PM   #33
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I am making this a separate post because I tried to edit the last post two times and then did not push the right button to post added text. Just, fyi, at work I am a regulatory compliance officer and have to type regulatory advise and guidance and send to internal lawyers, CFO's, as well as external legal counsel or the USG. I am a 2 finger typist, with nerve damage in my right arm and hand (c4-c7 in spine fused). People at work proof read for me or just ask if they can type it while I dictate. One women told me 'if I had those hands, I'd cut them off'. It is as it is, after this thread, my right arm is numb now. No sympathy required, just to provide some insight if you have problems understanding a post. The 1st in the thread I typed vary fast using short cut word structure and covered a vast array of investment topics. I asked for opinions, and got what I asked for ;-)
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