Join Early Retirement Today
Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
Something too Ponder about Investments; Other Opinions more than welcome!
Old 05-10-2013, 04:58 PM   #1
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Apr 2013
Location: ORL
Posts: 156
Something too Ponder about Investments; Other Opinions more than welcome!

Hi, complex subject, but I'll try to make it short. Fundamentals do not drive market, USG / FED has no long-term effect on market (investments, as opposed to savings, re., capital not at risk). After getting MBA in Intl' Fin. spent a good bit of time researching based on about 300 years of data (that's long-term, but 5000 is just as appropriate - later maybe). What makes a stock, bond, EFT, worth X one day and Y the next? A: it's what "people" think it's worth, correct or not. There is a herding mentality - don't want to miss the boat, result most individual investors buy High (like now) and sell Low like in 2009 = closet market timer's, best you know what you are! The market is a reflection of social mood - Key. Once that is understood no need to read WSJ, Barrons, Listen to Financial TV or have financial planner. Just look at the market as reflection of social mood a coincident indicator (USG is lagging action = problem well under way and solution never works, now QE Infinity! - Right). So, results, shorted market 2000, sold real estate before 2007 crash, did not ride short-term 2003-2007 market bear market rally - stayed in cash, same for 2009 to date. Sorry folks but these are clearly bear market rally's. Went long the USD about 1.5 years ago (when it was dead) and getting ready to short indices. Rest in cash with (and no debt please) and by cash I mean for most part "cash notes = $100 bills) stored off-shore in private vault = no custodial risk. In the US - only Weiss A rated banks, there are a few. US is in a depression since 2000, next leg down - soon- to about 2016, will be devastating for all investments except cash or custodial safe (bank) deposits. When it bottoms, you'll be able to pick up bargains for pennies on a $. Not an investment advisor and this is not advise, just opinion, it's all probabilities. Anyway with my advise I would not have many clients. Individuals I know who decided to do what I described, did not lose 1 cent and made money at low risk. There is no inflation with 0% interest rates.
__________________

__________________
rjohnla is offline   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Old 05-10-2013, 08:17 PM   #2
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Onward's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2009
Posts: 1,665
Are you okay?
__________________

__________________
And if I claim to be a wise man, it surely means that I don't know.
Onward is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-10-2013, 08:28 PM   #3
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Apr 2013
Location: ORL
Posts: 156
Why sure & happy. Why would you think otherwise? $1.3 and counting and no debt. I'm financially independent, that was the goal. I can do just about whatever I want, how many people can say that? And, I have to add that the analysis is not all mine I pay for good bit of it, but 1st I had to decide if I agree with the theories, that took some research. No direct quotes, etc., copyright infringement. The people who do the analysis, well let's say I'm relatively poor in comparison - lol. Hope it's all working out good for you, i.e., have not lost 1cent in investments since 1995? All the best.
__________________
rjohnla is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-10-2013, 08:28 PM   #4
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Posts: 2,268
The market has basically doubled since 2003 and that includes the meltdown in 2008 and is at all time highs. If that's the definition of a bear market rally then we should be so lucky as to have more of them.
__________________
utrecht is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-10-2013, 08:42 PM   #5
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Apr 2013
Location: ORL
Posts: 156
Yes, but that's 'the market' people by stocks & funds & EFT's take a good look at what individual returns are compared to markets. "Individuals" have lost trillions of dollars, in market crash (worse since 1929) and the housing crash. Go to Dept. of Treasury web site they have the numbers there. I disregard hype, or financial reporting (I don't need someone to explain why something happened after it happened.) I'm interested in forecasting future events, based on probability theories of course.
__________________
rjohnla is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-10-2013, 09:14 PM   #6
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
brewer12345's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2003
Posts: 16,391
Meth is a really nasty drug.
__________________
"There are three kinds of men. The one that learns by reading. The few who learn by observation. The rest have to pee on the electric fence for themselves."



- Will Rogers
brewer12345 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-10-2013, 09:20 PM   #7
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Apr 2013
Location: ORL
Posts: 156
"Meth is a really nasty drug." This I really don't understand.

Here's one of my favorite qoutes "Outside of wrong-doing and right-doing is a field; I'll meet you there"
__________________
rjohnla is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-10-2013, 09:35 PM   #8
Full time employment: Posting here.
ShortInSeattle's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2012
Location: Seattle
Posts: 517
Quote:
Originally Posted by rjohnla View Post
"Meth is a really nasty drug." This I really don't understand.
"
No offense, but your post came across as hyper, overconfident, and irrational. I'm not saying that you *are* these things, but this is how you sound. You also had run on sentences - skipping wildly from one idea to the next. It reads a bit like a crazy rant. Hence the drug comments.

I'm not interested in debating any of your points, but figured I'd state plainly why you got the comments you did.

All the best.

SIS
__________________
ShortInSeattle is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-10-2013, 09:50 PM   #9
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Apr 2013
Location: ORL
Posts: 156
Hi SIS, ok, I can appreciate that comment. And hey the feedback has not been very positive. Only thing I'd point out is at the beginning I said it's complex and I'll try to make it short. It's just difficult to condense 18 years in such short writing. That's my fault I used acronyms and tried covered a lot of ground quickly, hoping I could pass on some information that people may want to 'ponder' and maybe research. So, seems I failed at that. Well, it is as it is. Simply, what I'm using is technical analysis not fundamental analysis taught in Universities and socio-economics and growing theory that says it's the mood of the masses that determines whether things are viewed positively or negatively, especially reflected in the market indices, and right now the social mood is negative, so we will see more down than up, so be conservative with your money now.
__________________
rjohnla is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-10-2013, 10:53 PM   #10
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Jan 2004
Posts: 2,049
Considering the inflows, it looks like the social mood is positive.
__________________
eridanus is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-10-2013, 11:04 PM   #11
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Apr 2013
Location: ORL
Posts: 156
Hi, yes, and therein lays a paradox. Individual investors via IRA's, 401K's and private investment (mutual funds mainly) are putting basically free money, thanks to FRB QE into the market. Mutual fund managers: 1) have their funds at a historical low in cash and 2) are borrowing money to buy more stocks for fund investors. While insiders (not to be confused with insider trading, rather those that have options they can now sell) are selling heavily into the markets. Insiders sell for a lot of reasons, e.g., acquire something else: maybe stocks, house or any number of things. But historically insiders never sell when the believe their options will increase in value. Mass social mood tends to be positive and the tops, but it is a contrary indicator.
__________________
rjohnla is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-10-2013, 11:15 PM   #12
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Jan 2004
Posts: 2,049
Quote:
Originally Posted by rjohnla View Post
Mass social mood tends to be positive and the tops, but it is a contrary indicator.
Eh? A post ago you wrote, "and right now the social mood is negative". Is there more than one social mood?

Are the real insiders selling their options or exercising and then selling? Or maybe you meant that they have options, e.g., multiple choices?
__________________
eridanus is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-10-2013, 11:41 PM   #13
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Apr 2013
Location: ORL
Posts: 156
Well yes, the net is negative. Hopefully l can clarify, not many individuals in the US are market investors, they are by far in the minority - they are in a positive mood. If you talk and look at the actions of the non-investors the mood is much more negative. Consider, for example, that the USG and media reports unemployment "U3" around 8 something percent, it excludes those who have dropped out of the job market, includes those working jobs that pay far below what they used to make, However, "U6" also reported by USG, but not really discussed includes those that have dropped out of job market and it is closer to 20%. These people are not in the market and possibly not even a house. I rent an apartment n the city on lake /park and the number of homeless has increased dramatically over the past 3 years. I talk to them, their mood is negative. So, in sum, yes the minority - investors have a positive mood, their money is increasing, for now. The majority - non investors, have a overall negative social mood, this is what I was referring to with net negative. I see shorthand is not the way to go. As far as insiders I mean those people in companies that received stock options as part of their compensation, and now enough time has passed and they can exercise their options and they are selling.
__________________
rjohnla is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-10-2013, 11:52 PM   #14
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
heeyy_joe's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2012
Location: Madeira Beach Fl
Posts: 1,403
The greater fool theory is in full bloom.
__________________
_______________________________________________
"A man is a success if he gets up in the morning and goes to bed at night and in between does what he wants to do" --Bob Dylan.
heeyy_joe is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-11-2013, 12:07 AM   #15
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Apr 2013
Location: ORL
Posts: 156
Well, I guess you are referring to my opinions? It's easy with one-liners, no fact-based response. Yes, I'm in the minority and know that quite well. However, there is a group people, technical market analyst that I do not consider fool theorist. Anyway I look objectively at the results. I have had no major losses, only gains. There is a bias to up markets and long term investing, sometimes it works, sometimes it does not, just look at the history of the markets over the past 300 years (graft UK market onto US market to get time-frame). So as a realist, I am not concerned if a market goes up or down, my forecast is correct that matters and it's probability based; I will change forecast quickly when certain technical indicators change. Can make money in up and down markets, most only 'play' up markets and long term, I don't.
__________________
rjohnla is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-11-2013, 12:24 AM   #16
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
timo2's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2011
Location: Rio Rancho
Posts: 1,438
@rjohnla- you could be over-thinking the current environment. IMHO, international corporate profits are what is driving the current market. We have international corporate profits, but national equity markets. I'm speculating that the employment rate, housing prices, whatever, in any one country no longer matter to the individual national exchanges as much as they used to.
__________________
"We live the lives we lead because of the thoughts we think" Michael O’Neill
timo2 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-11-2013, 12:57 AM   #17
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Apr 2013
Location: ORL
Posts: 156
Hi Timo2, interesting comment and certainly diversified global companies have been making money - I work for a company with approximately 470,000 employees in 144 countries (every state in the US), and about 80 billion Euros annual sales. We certainly see profit rotation among sectors, which is good, 1 up 1 down. Backlog is good, new orders not so. Also, a lot a companies Int'l / Global, there is a difference, also have been (past perfect) buying back their stocks when they were cheaper. And technically stock buy-backs should not increase stock prices, profits are a primary driver. But I am a different type of investor, I do not look at fundamentals or individual stocks or funds. I'm a market technician, technical analyst, in the short term I'll use software with real time feeds and trade S&P E-mini contracts using 2 minute and 30 minute charts = 18 charts total. I'll be in and out of a contract usually in less than 5-10 minutes. In this case I'm only using technical analysis and do not care if the contract is moving up or down, rather if I am I right or wrong (same as for long-term). Longer term, which I have been mainly writing about, I still use technical analysis only with a major country index and then will factor in social-economics as well as information that is in a book like "Manias, Panics, and Crashes - History of Financial Crises" by Charles Kindleberger in 1937 - a classic. Quote on cover of book: "Sometime in the next five years you may kick yourself for not reading and re-reading Kindleberger's [book] - Paul Samuelson. I'm just in the minority and thought it might be an interesting discussion. I hope everyone does well investing whatever strategy they use, unfortunately that's not possible for anyone, but have to face reality. Thanks for you comment, I will spend some time thinking more about it. All the best, John
__________________
rjohnla is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-11-2013, 09:31 AM   #18
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Apr 2013
Location: ORL
Posts: 156
Hi, guess +1 means you're out here too... I have to go with Carpe Diem after 2 years of required Latin in high school. Have a good one.

p.s. a friend mine, a German, who studied Latin was in Italy and needed directions, but did not speak Italian, so he went to pharmacy and was able to communicate with a pharmacist in Latin. Been years, but will never forget him telling me that...dead language?
__________________
rjohnla is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-11-2013, 09:38 AM   #19
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Apr 2013
Location: ORL
Posts: 156
Hi heey_joe thanks for the clarification. Yes, it can be understood two ways, I took the negative as that was all I was getting, so lesson for me. Have a good one and many returns.

p.s. one person who held a trading seminar (1-2 times a year, he loses money, but enjoys the interaction) and holds very similar beliefs; he formerly had had a seat on the NYSE, sold it and trades from home for past 40 years, well he told don't try to discuss technical analysis and crowd psychology, etc., in any detail with other people. He said "if asked, just say you are in investments". That's one piece of advice I did not follow, for the 1st time and with an unknown group of people.
__________________
rjohnla is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-11-2013, 10:00 AM   #20
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Posts: 2,268
I lost my secret decoder ring so I really cant understand much of what you are talking about but I do know this...

You may think we are going down from here and you may be right, but the market we are in violates the very definition of a bear market rally. You can not have a bear market rally when you are at a new all time high. A bear market rally occurs when the market is moving up during an overall downward trend. This market is anything but that.
__________________

__________________
utrecht is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Holding non-fidelity funds at fidelity panhead FIRE and Money 16 05-02-2013 08:37 AM
Asset Allocation opinions Earl E Retyre FIRE and Money 11 09-12-2011 04:04 PM

 

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 08:56 PM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.