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Old 09-16-2016, 05:14 AM   #41
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Originally Posted by haha View Post
We'll poo-poo this until reality reasserts, which may not be long.

Then many members will disappear.

Which likely makes a difference mostly to them, but they will wonder what happened.
One of the reasons I'm back in the market this year is from going back to 2008-09 and reading posts here. A lot of people just stood pat, bought as many new shares as they could and rode it all back up. Seeing their confidence was amazing.

Besides, the Bogle-ish folks don't discuss market timing that much here, so why would they disappear?

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Old 09-16-2016, 07:07 AM   #42
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The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent. John Maynard Keynes

Understanding both the power of compound interest and the difficulty of getting it is the heart and soul of understanding a lot of things. Charlie Munger
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Old 09-19-2016, 02:45 AM   #43
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you have to look at the whole picture . this bull market is going in to 8 years . typically we have a 20% -50% drop just about every 7 years .

so it is not as much as stocks are expensive as they are running out of steam at a bad time .

dividends are up almost 38% . we have quite a few major s&p 500 company's paying out more in dividends than they earned .

basically these company's are saying here is your money back we just can't grow it .

they are doing very little capital spending to improve future productivity or increase market share .

what money they tend to spend has been going for stock buy backs not growing the business's .

earnings were down overall the last 4 quarters , so now you have less earnings and more money being given back un-used , un-invested as dividends .

so at this stage you have to ask yourself is it worth 5 or 6% in returns for risking a 20-50% loss ?

that is the real issue with stocks and the questions the big stock traders are asking themselves . suddenly a treasury bond at 1.50% looks damn good lol

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