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Old 07-20-2017, 09:01 AM   #241
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The conditional tense is being used far too much here. There's no room in investing for words like "should", "would", "could"or the inevitable "if".
It's quite funny to read some of these posts and sit around mid table having done absolutely noting other than buy two stock index funds


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Old 07-20-2017, 09:03 AM   #242
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And how do you measure "very likely they'd continue to nosedive or go bankrupt"? Have you decided that? Is it a set % decline? A set % decline in a given period? A number of articles saying bankruptcy is possible? Some other methodology?

If you haven't decided exactly when you'd get out of a trade, you have no exit strategy for a loss. I'd wager that's your current condition based on your responses here. That's not how you take a calculated risk, it's a method of "hoping for the best".
I have no exit strategy that covers every situation. I bought hoping to sell quickly. That didn't work out, so I waited longer but it looks like a quick sell won't happen so I made it more like normal speculation and decided to bet on the deal going through. If the deal goes through and RAD rises enough for it to have been worth it for me, I won't hold much longer. I'll probably sell within two weeks of the approved deal. If the deal fails, the stock will drop but I don't believe Rite Aid will be in danger bankruptcy and I wouldn't sell at that point. I think they'd try to make another merger or something happen and I'd wait.
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Old 07-20-2017, 09:13 AM   #243
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There are two ways to take the first comment. Yes, I think the point of this contest was to invest as if it was your real money, and act as you would in your own real account.

But I agree with RISP, for some people's sake, I sure hope they don't invest like this in real life!

-ERD50

Actually, I'm a bit more conservative with my investing real life than with this contest. But same approach. As for Boho's approach, seems like he's been referring back and forth about contest investments and his real investments. But I'll let him speak fully for himself .
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Old 07-20-2017, 09:46 AM   #244
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As for Boho's approach, seems like he's been referring back and forth about contest investments and his real investments. But I'll let him speak fully for himself .
I wouldn't put 50% of my real life money into one stock like I do in the contest. With stock picking, in real life I'd think about some of my recent trades more but I'm not sure if my picks would be different. They probably would be. In real life I traded based on after hours news and placed my order early based on the pre-news closing price and sometimes on after hours and pre-market trading. I didn't do that with my latest contest trade. I don't remember if I did that with RAD.
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Old 07-20-2017, 10:20 AM   #245
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For me, should clarify. My strategy is the same, but asset allocation is (not at this point of contest, but will get there eventually) is more aggressive than my real life investments.

At this point, I'm still about 40% in cash .
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Old 07-20-2017, 10:23 AM   #246
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My basic strategy is the same - bet for the long-term growth of the broad US markets. The use of leveraged funds and picking of some specific industries to leverage is NOT consistent with my real-life investment strategy however.
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Old 07-21-2017, 07:45 AM   #247
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I also looked at the difference between my account value and second place and thought of what I could buy.
Since I had a great few days - I'll do the same as well now. I'm ahead about 115k vs. Boho, so hardly room for a truly great car.

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Old 07-24-2017, 04:52 PM   #248
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I meant $134. At least it went up and I didn't bet $500,000 again.

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Old 08-01-2017, 11:32 PM   #249
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One more day to see if my real life and contest pick, DRAD, will rise or fall based on its quarterly report. I don't have much of it in the contest because it's a microcap and the volume restrictions stopped me from buying much and I also sold some for a profit recently, but still... Google News isn't so good at researching stocks. I sent them this complaint:

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Searching Google News for a stock symbol, such as DRAD, often brings old news results that the publisher dates as new. Currently, the first result in my search for DRAD is an article from https://www.baseball-news-blog.com titled "Digirad Corporation (DRAD) Upgraded by Zacks Investment Research to “Hold”" Posted on Aug 1st, 2017. The first sentence of the article mentions that it's about "a report released on Monday, July 3rd." Another search result points to an identical article from https://transcriptdaily.com.

More recent news for DRAD, which wasn't found at all when using DRAD as the search term, would have been an article titled "Digirad Corporation to Release 2017 Second Quarter Financial Results on August 4, 2017." A link to that article can currently be found on Google News by specifically searching for the phrase "(NASDAQ:DRAD) will release financial results for its second quarter ended June 30, 2017, before the market opens on Friday, August 4, 2017"
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Old 08-02-2017, 05:32 PM   #250
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One more day to see if my real life and contest pick, DRAD, will rise or fall based on its quarterly report. I don't have much of it in the contest because it's a microcap and the volume restrictions stopped me from buying much and I also sold some for a profit recently, but still... Google News isn't so good at researching stocks. I sent them this complaint:
Any response back from Google?

Maybe you'd get something like "Please do not make investment decisions based on our news stories" .
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Old 08-02-2017, 07:15 PM   #251
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Can you post an update for us gawkers? - ERD50

It's been about 4 weeks since the last screenshot was posted. Can we get another update please? I'm actually following some of the stocks mentioned here closer than I do my own (boring broad-based index funds). Not trading them though.

-ERD50
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Old 08-02-2017, 07:25 PM   #252
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Any response back from Google?

Maybe you'd get something like "Please do not make investment decisions based on our news stories" .
No, I didn't provide an email. I don't think there was a place to put my email address and I wasn't logged into Google or Youtube or however that works.
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Old 08-02-2017, 07:47 PM   #253
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It's been about 4 weeks since the last screenshot was posted. Can we get another update please? I'm actually following some of the stocks mentioned here closer than I do my own (boring broad-based index funds). Not trading them though.

-ERD50
Comsecga is first, Spudd last in 16th place, and me in 15th.
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Old 08-03-2017, 07:21 AM   #254
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Comsecga is first, Spudd last in 16th place, and me in 15th.
Thanks. It's kinda interesting that even with this small sample and short time, we've got the broad-based index player right in the middle of the pack. About what would be expected with monkeys and dartboards (no offense intended towards any posters here, monkeys, or dartboards!).

Maybe sometime later, with more data, but does it allow you to plot a graph of account values over time, from beginning to end (or current)? That would allow us to get a picture of the relative volatility of the various players/approaches.

-ERD50
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Old 08-03-2017, 08:03 AM   #255
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Maybe sometime later, with more data, but does it allow you to plot a graph of account values over time, from beginning to end (or current)? That would allow us to get a picture of the relative volatility of the various players/approaches.
The closest it gets to that is each player could see his own performance history in table form, one day per row, with each row listing the Cash, Stock Portfolio Value, Option Portfolio Value, Shorted Stock Portfolio Value, and Account Value. You could download it to Excel.

It's also possible to see a limited performance graph for each other player by clicking their name. Here's Comsecga's graph:
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Old 08-03-2017, 11:12 AM   #256
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Maybe sometime later, with more data, but does it allow you to plot a graph of account values over time, from beginning to end (or current)? That would allow us to get a picture of the relative volatility of the various players/approaches.
Players are able to go to "Corporate Action History" and there's a table which can be pasted into Excel that contains an "account value" column. In my case with a small cash balance, there are transactions on the first of each month: interest accrued. So by eliminating the non-interest rows and plotting, users can have a start to finish representation of their performance.
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Old 08-03-2017, 11:21 AM   #257
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Has anyone else noticed that the cash balance doesn't agree with the sum of all transactions?

I went to "Trade History" and pulled the data from the "Total Cash Value (of the trasaction)" column, and also pulled the data from the "Corporate Action History" "Total Cash Value". After adding the initial stake and setting the buy transactions negative, that should net out to my cash balance, but it doesn't.

In my case, it's off by $67.61, in the brokerage house's favor. It's been off by various amounts throughout the game. Not big amounts, but I'm just curious if anyone else has noticed and maybe figured out why it doesn't match.

I thought it might have been that my balance went negative for about an hour when I was simultaneously buying and selling, but figured if they charged me interest on borrowed funds, that would be noted in the corporate action history, and I don't show any margin costs there.
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Old 08-04-2017, 08:20 AM   #258
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DRAD stayed way undervalued, and now I'm waiting for the next financial report. Hopefully I'll sell at that time and start trading again and my real life research will help me in the contest.
"Digirad Corporation (DRAD) got back on track in the second quarter by putting up a strong earnings beat ($0.08/share vs. $0.03 expected), returning to profitability"

Too bad I wasn't able to buy as much as I wanted in the contest. I have more than enough in real life though. This is the first win in the trifecta that I'm hoping for.
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Old 08-04-2017, 08:42 AM   #259
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"Digirad Corporation (DRAD) got back on track in the second quarter by putting up a strong earnings beat ($0.08/share vs. $0.03 expected), returning to profitability"

Too bad I wasn't able to buy as much as I wanted in the contest. I have more than enough in real life though. This is the first win in the trifecta that I'm hoping for.
The current "ask" is $4.10 for DRAD. According to your portfolio, your average price purchased for it was $4.16. That doesn't look like much of a "win" currently. EPS beat expectations but sales still down YOY, and Non-GAAP EBITDA down 40% from the same period last year. They had some positive news, but I don't see it spiking on this earnings report, especially with them just "confirming" the same guidance that has been out there for their future expected results.
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Old 08-04-2017, 08:51 AM   #260
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I guess I'd care more about YOY if I bought last year but I bought last quarter. There's no after hours trading with DRAD so maybe it will rise slowly.
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