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Old 08-05-2017, 10:16 AM   #261
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I'm smack dab in the middle position today, 8th place out of 16. Can't complain.

Up 2.17% since contest start .
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Old 08-07-2017, 10:56 AM   #262
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Auto-generated articles from AP and Reuters about stocks don't seem to mention whether expectations were beaten. Changing ratings will probably trickle in though, from analysts who probably consider more than YOY.
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Old 08-11-2017, 08:36 AM   #263
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I've snuck up to 7th place at the moment.

Decided to post the leader board rankings as notice the symmetry.

Start of the day, everyone lost money from previous day. Plus, 8 folks with portfolio value above the $1M start, 8 folks below .
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Old 08-11-2017, 08:41 AM   #264
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Also from a quick glance: losers lost more than the winners won, and good ole index tracker is now ahead of the average?
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Old 08-11-2017, 09:01 AM   #265
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I've snuck up to 7th place at the moment.

Decided to post the leader board rankings as notice the symmetry.

Start of the day, everyone lost money from previous day. Plus, 8 folks with portfolio value above the $1M start, 8 folks below .
Thanks.

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Also from a quick glance: losers lost more than the winners won, and good ole index tracker is now ahead of the average?
Or maybe the better view of that is that the index tracker is the average, and 10 of 16 players are below the average?

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Auto-generated articles from AP and Reuters about stocks don't seem to mention whether expectations were beaten. ....
I think a more useful way to look at it is: "The company announced their earnings, and the expectations of the analysts were wrong"

Right? A company doesn't beat or miss 'expectations', it was the expectations that were off. The earnings are fact (unless illegally manipulated), they can't be 'off'.

Saying the company missed/beat expectations is giving analysts far too much credit, and says a lot about people's misplaced faith in the analysts.

As does the current rankings.

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Old 08-11-2017, 09:19 AM   #266
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nunnun is like half in total us market and other half in SP500 index.

I'm have combination of indexes of total us, total int'l, total us bond, and some cash.

At this point, I'm one slot behind nunnun. That is, (at least in theory) until the market drops more .
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Old 08-11-2017, 09:52 AM   #267
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Thanks.



Or maybe the better view of that is that the index tracker is the average, and 10 of 16 players are below the average?



I think a more useful way to look at it is: "The company announced their earnings, and the expectations of the analysts were wrong"

Right? A company doesn't beat or miss 'expectations', it was the expectations that were off. The earnings are fact (unless illegally manipulated), they can't be 'off'.

Saying the company missed/beat expectations is giving analysts far too much credit, and says a lot about people's misplaced faith in the analysts.

As does the current rankings.

-ERD50


You are getting into semantics in this discussion.... but I think you can say they did beat or miss 'expectations'....

It is the expectations that they are referring too, not the actual earnings...


Say I tell you that I expect to earn 7% this next year on my portfolio.... but I actually earn 8%.... then I 'beat' my expectation (the guess)... good for me... if I only got 6% then I 'missed'.... what did I miss? My expectation....

Or, lets go a different direction.... let's use target instead of expectation... so, you shoot a gun... and the bullet goes to the left of center by a foot.... did you hit your target spot? No, because the hole is a foot away... so it is a fact that the hole is a foot away, but you still missed what people were expecting...

For me, I am surprised if there is a huge miss... it is not like there are not whispers going on between companies and analysts.... I remember when I was working for mega and they were pushing for us to get a sale of RE done before qtr end so they could book the $25 mill gain... I never knew why as the earnings were usually in the billions, but someone wanted it.... (it was a bad qtr, so that could be a little of it)...
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Old 08-11-2017, 10:33 AM   #268
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You are getting into semantics in this discussion.... but I think you can say they did beat or miss 'expectations'....

It is the expectations that they are referring too, not the actual earnings...


Say I tell you that I expect to earn 7% this next year on my portfolio.... but I actually earn 8%.... then I 'beat' my expectation (the guess)... good for me... if I only got 6% then I 'missed'.... what did I miss? My expectation....

Or, lets go a different direction.... let's use target instead of expectation... so, you shoot a gun... and the bullet goes to the left of center by a foot.... did you hit your target spot? No, because the hole is a foot away... so it is a fact that the hole is a foot away, but you still missed what people were expecting...

For me, I am surprised if there is a huge miss... it is not like there are not whispers going on between companies and analysts.... I remember when I was working for mega and they were pushing for us to get a sale of RE done before qtr end so they could book the $25 mill gain... I never knew why as the earnings were usually in the billions, but someone wanted it.... (it was a bad qtr, so that could be a little of it)...
Oh, it absolutely is semantics.

But words are all we have, so it can make a difference. The difference I see in your examples, is that you are the one setting the expectation/target, so yes, you would be the one to be off.

But when I've seen "missed expectations" in financial news reports (which I no longer follow), it almost always means "missed analysts estimates". Am I wrong about that?

I'm going by memory here, but it seems to me most companies do not provide a specific $/share estimate for next quarters earnings. Maybe that opens them up to problems if they miss their own estimates, as in 'misleading investors', and inviting lawsuits?

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Old 08-11-2017, 10:44 AM   #269
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Saying the company missed/beat expectations is giving analysts far too much credit, and says a lot about people's misplaced faith in the analysts.

As does the current rankings.
The reason the expectations matter here is that the stock was priced in part based on analyst ratings and the price should theoretically go up now that it's been revealed that the analyst ratings were based on too-low expectations. Also, now there's more of a track record that the company is giving the right guidance and going in the right direction. The price target date is closer than last quarter and things seem to be going better than expected by analysts. So I expect the next ratings to be better - from hold to buy or whatever - and those who care about ratings will buy and the price will rise. It should have happened already but the auto-generated articles are keeping the price down.
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Old 08-11-2017, 10:58 AM   #270
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The reason the expectations matter here is that the stock was priced in part based on analyst ratings and the price should theoretically go up now that it's been revealed that the analyst ratings were based on too-low expectations. Also, now there's more of a track record that the company is giving the right guidance and going in the right direction. The price target date is closer than last quarter and things seem to be going better than expected by analysts. So I expect the next ratings to be better - from hold to buy or whatever - and those who care about ratings will buy and the price will rise. It should have happened already but the auto-generated articles are keeping the price down.
I didn't say performance versus expectations don't matter, I'm saying it's the analysts who 'miss', not the company.


" things seem to be going better than expected by analysts." Better than expected by analysts? But you are relying on the analysts.

and those who care about ratings will buy and the price will rise. It should have happened already but the auto-generated articles are keeping the price down - That's an interesting thought process from someone who is #15/16, and ~ 15% points behind someone who is taking a nap.

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Old 08-11-2017, 11:11 AM   #271
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It should have happened already but the auto-generated articles are keeping the price down[/I] - That's an interesting thought process from someone who is #15/16, and ~ 15% points behind someone who is taking a nap.
I was making money in the not so distant past. My picks were based on media stories, and now the stories are incomplete IMO and I'm down. My guess is that most people would expect the next analyst ratings to be better for DRAD, which would make the price rise. If they're not better, then I'm not as good as I thought I was.
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Old 08-11-2017, 11:32 AM   #272
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nunnun is like half in total us market and other half in SP500 index.

I'm have combination of indexes of total us, total int'l, total us bond, and some cash.

At this point, I'm one slot behind nunnun. That is, (at least in theory) until the market drops more .
I bought those two things as the site would not let me buy 100% Total US Market. I'm happy that I'm above the middle having done exactly nothing. It will be interesting to see what happens if the market falls. My "sit tight" strategy might not be so good if the year ends on a big downturn, but I didn't get hammered quite as badly yesterday as some of the folks above me and things have tightened up a bit.
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Old 08-11-2017, 11:33 AM   #273
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I also think the coward analysts are waiting for the downward momentum to stop before they revise their ratings for DRAD so they don't appear wrong before they appear right. I didn't do that when I bought so I'm appearing wrong at the moment.
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Old 08-11-2017, 11:45 AM   #274
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I was making money in the not so distant past. My picks were based on media stories, and now the stories are incomplete IMO and I'm down. My guess is that most people would expect the next analyst ratings to be better for DRAD, which would make the price rise. If they're not better, then I'm not as good as I thought I was.
So the stories are incomplete, and sometimes old. Something tells me the professionals are on top of all that, and driving the price accordingly. Not a few individual investors who didn't look at the dates in the story they just read.

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I also think the coward analysts are waiting for the downward momentum to stop before they revise their ratings for DRAD so they don't appear wrong before they appear right. I didn't do that when I bought so I'm appearing wrong at the moment.
So you now have to analyze the analysts who are analyzing the stock? Does that really sound like a strategy to build wealth (that was rhetorical)?

Heck, anything can happen with individual stocks. You might hit a winning streak and pull ahead. But the more I read from you, the less likely I think that is to happen. Being down, with 15% less to work with than 'the napper' makes it a little more challenging.

I'm no good at predicting stock movements, but I will make another prediction: Boho will become a broad-based index investor by the time this little contest is over!

-ERD50
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Old 08-11-2017, 12:13 PM   #275
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So the stories are incomplete, and sometimes old. Something tells me the professionals are on top of all that, and driving the price accordingly. Not a few individual investors who didn't look at the dates in the story they just read.
The date issue from the stupid little websites that most people never heard of are just an annoyance to me. I'm not assuming they have a significant effect on prices. Reuters and the AP are different.
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Old 08-11-2017, 12:57 PM   #276
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Oh, it absolutely is semantics.

But words are all we have, so it can make a difference. The difference I see in your examples, is that you are the one setting the expectation/target, so yes, you would be the one to be off.

But when I've seen "missed expectations" in financial news reports (which I no longer follow), it almost always means "missed analysts estimates". Am I wrong about that?

I'm going by memory here, but it seems to me most companies do not provide a specific $/share estimate for next quarters earnings. Maybe that opens them up to problems if they miss their own estimates, as in 'misleading investors', and inviting lawsuits?

-ERD50

You are right... they are leaving out the word analyst in the sentence...

It is my thinking, but you are right and wrong.... IOW, companies do not provide 'specific' estimates for the next qtr, but a number of them provide a range for revenue and earnings... that is why sometimes a company can 'beat' this qtr and drop like a rock... because they lower their guidance going forward...


Oh, another thing on the estimate... it is based on the various estimates of the analyst who follow that stock... the actual estimates are usually all over the map... I have seen some where one has estimated twice as much as another.... so I guess the wording should be 'consensus estimate' to be clear... (well, that is bad since there was no consensus... I am sure you can come up with a better word )....
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Old 08-11-2017, 03:26 PM   #277
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...
Oh, another thing on the estimate... it is based on the various estimates of the analyst who follow that stock... the actual estimates are usually all over the map... I have seen some where one has estimated twice as much as another.... so I guess the wording should be 'consensus estimate' to be clear... (well, that is bad since there was no consensus... I am sure you can come up with a better word )....
I think I've seen some sites provide an average of the analysts estimates, but I haven't followed that stuff in years, been taking a nap and letting that broad-based index fund do its thing!


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Old 08-11-2017, 07:39 PM   #278
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I bought those two things as the site would not let me buy 100% Total US Market. I'm happy that I'm above the middle having done exactly nothing. It will be interesting to see what happens if the market falls. My "sit tight" strategy might not be so good if the year ends on a big downturn, but I didn't get hammered quite as badly yesterday as some of the folks above me and things have tightened up a bit.
Yes. 50% Total US, 50% SP500 is still pretty close.

I think you and I are falling as expected. Your holdings a bit more aggressive but also a bit more for growth than my holdings.
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Old 08-28-2017, 08:24 AM   #279
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Hah hah hah, I shorted KITE in this contest a few months ago and today Gilead buys them.

That should drop my contest portfolio by half or so. It was a coin flip if I would buy KITE or short it.
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Old 08-28-2017, 08:52 AM   #280
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Thank you for graciously saving us from the shame of last place Now we can start taking some more risk too!

In other news, I am now a Lamborghini Gallardo ahead of Boho.
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