Join Early Retirement Today
Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
Old 02-09-2018, 08:00 AM   #661
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Northern IL
Posts: 19,333
Quote:
Originally Posted by Boho View Post
I was the smallest loser yesterday. I do better than the competition in a down market, just as I figured.
It's a little hard to accept that as any sort of 'trend' - you have only a few holdings, and this is just one sample. There have been several dips from peaks since the contest began, if you plotted your portfolio against VTI, do you actually go up every time the market dips? Even though you had different holdings? Do you think this is predictable from this one event?

And probably more importantly, a strategy that only does better than the market when the market is down (w/o predicting the 'down days') is a recipe for failure (as we can see by your portfolio and standing so far). Are you actually betting the market will be down from it's start at the end in ~ 2 years, or that you have a huge multiplier on "down" and a lesser multiplier on "up"?

This isn't the "Beat Boho if the market is down Contest".

And the market is up 1.2% for the day as I type. Just sayin'.

EDIT: Hah, I just saw your wording more closely - you did 'less bad' on a down day (smallest loser). You have a lot of catching up to do.

-ERD50
__________________

ERD50 is offline   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Old 02-09-2018, 09:26 AM   #662
Full time employment: Posting here.
Boho's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2017
Posts: 607
Quote:
Originally Posted by ERD50 View Post
And the market is up 1.2% for the day as I type. Just sayin'.
So far my gains for today are about $10,000 above nunnun's. I expect to do at least as well as nunnun even in up markets but that's not evident by the totals so far.
__________________

Boho is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-09-2018, 09:34 AM   #663
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Northern IL
Posts: 19,333
Quote:
Originally Posted by Boho View Post
So far my gains for today are about $10,000 above nunnun's. I expect to do at least as well as nunnun even in up markets but that's not evident by the totals so far.
That's one way to put it!

A more direct way would be "Boho is losing, so far.".

The "totals so far" is all that matters. Your "expectations" do not matter. I'm sure you "expected" to be in the lead the whole time. Days don't really matter, the cumulative is what matters.

Oh well, see you at the end of the month...

-ERD50
ERD50 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-09-2018, 10:08 AM   #664
Full time employment: Posting here.
Boho's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2017
Posts: 607
Quote:
Originally Posted by ERD50 View Post
That's one way to put it!

A more direct way would be "Boho is losing, so far.".

The "totals so far" is all that matters. Your "expectations" do not matter. I'm sure you "expected" to be in the lead the whole time. Days don't really matter, the cumulative is what matters.

Oh well, see you at the end of the month...

-ERD50
A lot matters in making predictions that you're discounting. The last day of the contest, when all you want to know is who won, is the only time the account totals are all that matters.
Boho is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-09-2018, 10:48 AM   #665
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Northern IL
Posts: 19,333
Quote:
Originally Posted by Boho View Post
A lot matters in making predictions that you're discounting. The last day of the contest, when all you want to know is who won, is the only time the account totals are all that matters.
Sure, as far as the contest goes, the last day is all that matters.

But I doubt anyone is going to be impressed by a picker who trailed for most of the contest, and then just had a pop right at the end. That's going to be looked at as luck.

I'll be far more impressed with anyone who managed to get ahead and stay ahead, even if they don't come out #1.

But we shall see. I highly doubt we will see your performance show a consistent improvement.

-ERD50
ERD50 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-09-2018, 11:12 AM   #666
Full time employment: Posting here.
Boho's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2017
Posts: 607
Quote:
Originally Posted by ERD50 View Post
But I doubt anyone is going to be impressed by a picker who trailed for most of the contest, and then just had a pop right at the end.
Of course. That's what I'm saying. I sell fast for small profits and I've been inching up pretty consistently for months with over 100 trades. My pops were downward for unusual reasons that are somewhat avoidable. I no longer load up on hard to liquidate stocks and now I know how to get around the inability to cancel market orders (don't place market orders).
Boho is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-13-2018, 10:26 AM   #667
Full time employment: Posting here.
Boho's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2017
Posts: 607
I feel like I should use a volatility index or something to tell me when to start trading again. I don't know if I could identify good deals in a weird market.
Boho is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-14-2018, 11:51 AM   #668
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
sengsational's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2010
Posts: 4,250
K$countsbestworst
PlayerRankValue of AllValue of:OpenCash BalanceAverage Cash
comsecga
1
$1,493K
$1,594K
$-101K
$-21K
up98down34
2
$1,405K
$1,398K
$7K
$149K
Fermion1
4
$1,319K
$721K
$598K
$687K
exnavynuke
3
$1,318K
$1,608K
$-289K
$-389K
Totoro_ERF
5
$1,295K
$1,312K
$-18K
$138K
DieWurst
6
$1,190K
$1,190K
$0K
$10K
kite_rider
8
$1,154K
$812K
$342K
$728K
sengsational
9
$1,150K
$1,143K
$7K
$32K
nunnun
7
$1,149K
$1,134K
$16K
$11K
lbymfreddie
10
$1,126K
$1,115K
$11K
$85K
RISP
11
$1,117K
$1,116K
$1K
$55K
cfahey27
12
$1,105K
$1,102K
$4K
$568K
nvestysly
13
$1,068K
$1,067K
$2K
$499K
easysurfer
14
$1,067K
$953K
$115K
$309K
RiskyBusinessC2
15
$1,031K
$807K
$224K
$652K
Clone2
16
$1,010K
$1,006K
$3K
$846K
Spudd
22
$1,005K
$1,008K
$-2K
$266K
longshot345kv
21
$1,000K
$0K
$1,000K
$1,000K
garyweis
20
$1,000K
$0K
$1,000K
$1,000K
Gayl
19
$1,000K
$0K
$1,000K
$1,000K
MizRosie
17
$1,000K
$0K
$1,000K
$1,000K
lawrencewendall
23
$979K
$1,621K
$-641K
$-513K
BohoII
24
$976K
$564K
$412K
$341K
trashcan12
26
$915K
$836K
$79K
$121K
Fermion
27
$623K
$359K
$264K
$711K
Current OpenLong TradesShort TradesOption TradesR/T TradesR/T-Unique Stocks
6
27
4
0
11
10
4
12
0
0
1
1
1
16
1
0
9
4
4
12
0
0
5
3
4
7
0
0
1
1
3
8
0
0
0
0
6
6
0
0
0
0
28
108
0
0
41
31
2
2
0
0
0
0
4
20
0
0
6
3
11
31
6
1
11
7
4
5
0
0
0
0
20
23
0
0
0
0
3
18
0
0
0
0
5
5
2
13
4
3
2
2
0
0
0
0
8
90
2
3
50
31
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
8
19
0
0
0
0
5
227
0
0
123
63
7
9
0
0
2
1
2
2
0
0
0
0
Ticker StockGain LossGain/Loss Percent
SHOP
$162K
90%
MNKD
$281K
131%
NVDA
$279K
31%
FAS
$152K
43%
PII
$94K
37%
VWO
$95K
19%
ANET
$109K
58%
SCMP
$25K
37%
VOO
$67K
13%
BOFI
$234K
48%
BXC
$43K
62%
AAPL
$37K
8%
DE
$20K
40%
VTI
$38K
11%
EDF
$9K
2%
DE
$13K
3%
CNCE
$66K
31%
none
$0K
?%
none
$0K
?%
none
$0K
?%
none
$0K
?%
SDYL
$6K
10%
ANW
$25K
4%
MNKD
$18K
133%
none
$0K
?%
Ticker StockGain LossGain/Loss Percent
GIMO
$-59K
-21%
O
$11K
4%
ECYT
$-37K
-23%
SOXL
$-36K
-7%
DB
$11K
6%
VEU
$27K
14%
BABA
$1K
3%
ICON
$-23K
-70%
VTI
$67K
13%
TEVA
$-163K
-51%
XOM
$-31K
-15%
MU
$19K
12%
GE
$-21K
-39%
BND
$-9K
-3%
TICC
$-1K
-18%
CAT
$-5K
-1%
BB
$-101K
-20%
none
$0K
?%
none
$0K
?%
none
$0K
?%
none
$0K
?%
FTR
$-82K
-41%
RAD
$-163K
-26%
DES
$-104K
-66%
CLSN
$-295K
-60%
Just getting back in front of the computer after vacationing.
The image is something from Excel, but I need a better way to graph over time. Can somebody find a web site where you can paste data like this:
Code:
:01/16/2018:01/20/2018:01/26/2018:02/14/2018:
garyweis:1000000.0:1000000.0:1000000.0:1000000.0:
sengsational:1130585.42:1152227.72:1184748.97:1149753.58:
Fermion:695045.02:704365.02:679905.02:622595.02:
Spudd:1075213.39:1095757.89:1123126.41:1005155.77:
easysurfer:1099152.9:1105666.83:1120288.4:1067290.2:
lawrencewendall:993172.93:1003154.97:1014930.96:978910.57:
BohoII:1031378.33:1017533.16:1031513.8:975626.78:
RISP:1095914.37:1130133.38:1164462.08:1116926.48:
exnavynuke:1414295.57:1453035.57:1519505.57:1318310.57:
Totoro_ERF:1329467.57:1369697.57:1411477.57:1294737.57:
nunnun:1188637.07:1203438.67:1228660.91:1149447.45:
DieWurst:1232888.83:1254769.61:1289343.29:1190476.68:
trashcan12:958767.68:964999.41:978660.92:915412.42:
lbymfreddie:1095750.24:1106728.52:1130696.24:1126417.14:
comsecga:1342355.41:1366196.21:1521167.01:1492889.61:
up98down34:1327642.51:1340800.01:1406387.51:1405446.01:
Fermion1:1258449.67:1288449.67:1328109.67:1318749.67:
RiskyBusinessC2:1040745.69:1051385.69:1074675.69:1030596.2:
cfahey27:1140360.4:1154900.4:1150221.4:1105449.4:
nvestysly:1108913.03:1117131.51:1152681.05:1068096.73:
MizRosie:1000000.0:1000000.0:1000000.0:1000000.0:
kite_rider:1125945.76:1154073.26:1189569.76:1153796.96:
longshot345kv:1000000.0:1000000.0:1000000.0:1000000.0:
Clone2:1066923.7:1079165.9:1072189.2:1009520.35:
Gayl:1000000.0:1000000.0:1000000.0:1000000.0:
Attached Images
File Type: jpg simovertime.jpg (82.2 KB, 21 views)
sengsational is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-20-2018, 09:54 AM   #669
Full time employment: Posting here.
Boho's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2017
Posts: 607
I think $1,000,000 was too high for this contest. There would be fewer volume issues with a lower starting value. What's the average amount forum members have in the market IRL? I see no reason people would tend to have $1,000,000 just because they're interested in early retirement.
Boho is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-20-2018, 10:10 AM   #670
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
REWahoo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Texas Hill Country
Posts: 44,049
Quote:
Originally Posted by Boho View Post
I think $1,000,000 was too high for this contest.
__________________
Numbers is hard

Charter resident of the lumpen slums of cyberspace

Retired in 2005 at age 58, no pension
REWahoo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-20-2018, 10:15 AM   #671
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Northern IL
Posts: 19,333
Quote:
Originally Posted by REWahoo View Post
And the beat goes on....

-ERD50
ERD50 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-20-2018, 10:16 AM   #672
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
harley's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Following the nice weather
Posts: 7,104
Quote:
Originally Posted by Boho View Post
I think $1,000,000 was too high for this contest. There would be fewer volume issues with a lower starting value. What's the average amount forum members have in the market IRL? I see no reason people would tend to have $1,000,000 just because they're interested in early retirement.
Here's a poll that was done in 2016. What's your net worth? 70% had between 1 and 5 Million. Next?
__________________
"Good judgment comes from experience. Experience comes from bad judgement." - Anonymous (not Will Rogers or Sam Clemens)
DW and I - FIREd at 50 (7/06), living off assets
harley is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-20-2018, 10:31 AM   #673
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
easysurfer's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2008
Posts: 8,695
Quote:
Originally Posted by Boho View Post
I think $1,000,000 was too high for this contest. There would be fewer volume issues with a lower starting value. What's the average amount forum members have in the market IRL? I see no reason people would tend to have $1,000,000 just because they're interested in early retirement.
The contest isn't rigged against you. Really, it is not .

I'm sure betters who didn't win in the Kentucky Derby also say there should be fewer horses running .
__________________
Have you ever seen a headstone with these words
"If only I had spent more time at work" ... from "Busy Man" sung by Billy Ray Cyrus
easysurfer is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-20-2018, 10:32 AM   #674
Full time employment: Posting here.
Boho's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2017
Posts: 607
Quote:
Originally Posted by harley View Post
Here's a poll that was done in 2016. What's your net worth? 70% had between 1 and 5 Million. Next?
Net worth is different. Would a person with a million dollar home tend to have a million invested too?
Boho is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-20-2018, 10:45 AM   #675
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
sengsational's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2010
Posts: 4,250
When the contest started, I liked that it was $1M because then I could trade a lot and commissions wouldn't be much of a factor. But I must admit, I didn't think it was a realistic amount...probably none of us would not be "playing" with that much money. I got cornered by volume restrictions once, early on in the game. Then I learned that trading in the afternoon worked much better, and haven't had a problem since. But my bets are spread out across a lot of positions and I'm trading more like every month than every day.
sengsational is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-20-2018, 10:46 AM   #676
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Northern IL
Posts: 19,333
Quote:
Originally Posted by Boho View Post
Net worth is different. Would a person with a million dollar home tend to have a million invested too?
They could if they had a $1M mortgage.

Yes, unlikely, but you should get the point. Another excuse huh? Which trade went south on you now?

-ERD50
ERD50 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-20-2018, 11:01 AM   #677
Full time employment: Posting here.
Boho's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2017
Posts: 607
Quote:
Originally Posted by ERD50 View Post
They could if they had a $1M mortgage.

Yes, unlikely, but you should get the point. Another excuse huh? Which trade went south on you now?

-ERD50
None. I'm up today but I bought two stocks and with the first I bought almost the maximum allowed and it was only $65,974. With the other I bought a small fraction of what I could and it was $294,754. The first was hardly worth buying the way I trade and with the second I have to worry about liquidity. Nothing new, it's just that it seems avoidable with a more realistic initial balance.
Boho is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-20-2018, 11:22 AM   #678
Recycles dryer sheets
RISP's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2012
Posts: 330
Quote:
Originally Posted by Boho View Post
I think $1,000,000 was too high for this contest.
You should be glad that the volume restrictions put a cap on your losses. 😂
Seriously, if you spent half as much time making smart investment decisions as you do making up excuses, you probably wouldn't be in the red.
__________________
I am willing to perform services in exchange for currency. For now.
RISP is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-20-2018, 11:33 AM   #679
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
easysurfer's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2008
Posts: 8,695
Quote:
Originally Posted by Boho View Post
I think $1,000,000 was too high for this contest. There would be fewer volume issues with a lower starting value. What's the average amount forum members have in the market IRL? I see no reason people would tend to have $1,000,000 just because they're interested in early retirement.
Just because the starting balance was $1M doesn't mean you MUST make big bets . Plus, waiting til in the afternoon to trade seems to clear up volume issues.

Quote:
Originally Posted by RISP View Post
You should be glad that the volume restrictions put a cap on your losses. 😂
Seriously, if you spent half as much time making smart investment decisions as you do making up excuses, you probably wouldn't be in the red.
Got a chuckle on the putting a cap on Boho's losses .
__________________
Have you ever seen a headstone with these words
"If only I had spent more time at work" ... from "Busy Man" sung by Billy Ray Cyrus
easysurfer is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-20-2018, 01:20 PM   #680
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: May 2014
Location: Utrecht
Posts: 2,437
Quote:
Originally Posted by RISP View Post
Seriously, if you spent half as much time making smart investment decisions as you do making up excuses, you probably wouldn't be in the red.
Actually, since that would allow him to trade more, he'd probably be more in the red

Best case scenario actually was that he didn't have time to trade at all ...
__________________

Totoro is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Stock Picking ("Beat Boho") Contest easysurfer Stock Picking and Market Strategy 235 04-20-2017 10:06 AM
Ohio waitress wins CNBC stock picking contest cute fuzzy bunny Stock Picking and Market Strategy 21 07-20-2007 10:22 PM
Stock Market Contest 2005 Danny Other topics 103 12-31-2005 02:50 PM


 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 02:55 AM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2018, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.