Stock Picking (Beat Boho) Contest - V2.0

[ERD50]

I wonder if you'll ever stop being surprised.

Perhaps somewhere on the board someone is wondering if I'll ever stop wondering about you stopping being surprised at him not learning.

Perhaps not.

/s/

Easily Amused Bystander

Yes, I need to find a support group or something!

At least I can see the humor in it, I'm not sure the contestant does? Or has he been trolling/laughing the whole time? I'm still not sure.

-ERD50

 

[SecondCor521]

Yes, I need to find a support group or something!

At least I can see the humor in it, I'm not sure the contestant does? Or has he been trolling/laughing the whole time? I'm still not sure.

-ERD50

My vote continues to be for a generally pleasant naif.

 

[Boho]

I don't know what B&H means unless it's Bell & Howell but I don't know how you can say I've been consistently behind anything when I was number one or two for over a month and above nunnun for some undetermined longer time and I've been rising faster than nunnun for months.

 

[braumeister]

I don't know what B&H means

Buy and Hold.

And thank you for consistently providing some welcome comic relief here.

 

[jazz4cash]

My vote continues to be for a generally pleasant naif.

Something everyone can agree on. Cortana tells me naïf is defined as naive or ingenious.

 

[Totoro]

I wonder if you'll ever stop being surprised.

Perhaps somewhere on the board someone is wondering if I'll ever stop wondering about you stopping being surprised at him not learning.

Perhaps not.

The first question they ask is: 'Why was he eternally surprised?'

And they are told: 'Boho considered the nature of time and understood that the universe is, instant by instant, recreated anew. Therefore, he understood, there is in truth no past, only a memory of the past. Blink your eyes, and the world you see next did not exist when you closed them. Therefore, he said, the only appropriate state of the mind is surprise. The only appropriate state of the heart is joy. The sky you see now, you have never seen before. The perfect moment is now. Be glad of it.'

 

[easysurfer]

For Boho's (and others here) pleasure reading:

Article titled "Stock Pickers are worse at picking stocks than investors may realize, report finds".

Looks like Boho my need to polish that crystal ball of his a bit more .

The argument behind passive investing, and the reason it has been the overwhelming choice of investors over the past decade, is simple: data has repeatedly shown that not only does it offer an extremely high likelihood of better long-term performance, but it does so for vastly lower costs

Many active managers argue that this is possible, particularly in periods of volatility or market weakness. Recently, they have pointed to short-term performance statistics that have indeed trended in their favor. According to May data from Goldman Sachs, 56% of large-cap mutual funds have outperformed their benchmark so far this year, putting them on track for their best year of relative performance since 2007.

Over the longer term, however, the ability of active managers to beat their benchmark drops precipitously. And while the results are marginally better when adjusted for risk, the overall odds remain solidly in favor of passive.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/s...realize-report-finds-2018-06-27?mod=fa_center

 

[ERD50]

What, no end-of-the month update?

I imagine if there was good news in there for Boho, it would have been posted at EOB last Friday?

-ERD50

 

[Boho]

What, no end-of-the month update?

I imagine if there was good news in there for Boho, it would have been posted at EOB last Friday?

-ERD50

I totally forgot this month.

 

[ERD50]

I totally forgot this month.

Thanks. Looks like you under-performed Buy & Hold napper nunnun by ~ 3.82% this month.

You'd probably like to forget it!

-ERD50

 

[Totoro]

Boho does Red Queen investing: it takes a lot of trades just to end up where he started.

 

[Boho]

I think I made two trades this month and two last month. My slowest 60 days so far.

 

[sengsational]

K$|counts|best|worst

Player|Rank|Value of All|Value of:Open|Cash Balance|Average Cash
comsecga|

1​

|

$1,678K​

|

$706K​

|

$-101K​

|

$-49K​

|
exnavynuke|

2​

|

$1,453K​

|

$1,217K​

|

$-280K​

|

$-351K​

|
Totoro_ERF|

3​

|

$1,428K​

|

$1,260K​

|

$168K​

|

$134K​

|
Fermion|

5​

|

$1,319K​

|

$1,055K​

|

$264K​

|

$554K​

|
cfahey27|

6​

|

$1,310K​

|

$213K​

|

$11K​

|

$373K​

|
kite_rider|

7​

|

$1,296K​

|

$1,122K​

|

$-164K​

|

$481K​

|
nunnun|

8​

|

$1,239K​

|

$1,213K​

|

$26K​

|

$15K​

|
Spudd|

10​

|

$1,194K​

|

$1,198K​

|

$-4K​

|

$180K​

|
cdailey|

12​

|

$1,175K​

|

$593K​

|

$-790K​

|

$325K​

|
sengsational|

11​

|

$1,174K​

|

$1,128K​

|

$-1K​

|

$31K​

|
lbymfreddie|

9​

|

$1,167K​

|

$1,155K​

|

$11K​

|

$61K​

|
ransil|

13​

|

$1,166K​

|

$1,287K​

|

$-121K​

|

$638K​

|
DieWurst|

14​

|

$1,139K​

|

$594K​

|

$0K​

|

$6K​

|
covert1|

19​

|

$1,127K​

|

$907K​

|

$11K​

|

$101K​

|
NormYoung|

15​

|

$1,119K​

|

$825K​

|

$108K​

|

$776K​

|
easysurfer|

16​

|

$1,110K​

|

$557K​

|

$125K​

|

$244K​

|
KCScubaSteve|

17​

|

$1,105K​

|

$1,102K​

|

$2K​

|

$816K​

|
nvestysly|

18​

|

$1,100K​

|

$945K​

|

$10K​

|

$329K​

|
BohoII|

20​

|

$1,085K​

|

$23K​

|

$746K​

|

$305K​

|
underwrite|

21​

|

$1,077K​

|

$1,040K​

|

$37K​

|

$933K​

|
RiskyBusinessC2|

22​

|

$1,024K​

|

$753K​

|

$271K​

|

$518K​

|
lawrencewendall|

23​

|

$1,010K​

|

$1,486K​

|

$-548K​

|

$-540K​

|
Clone2|

31​

|

$913K​

|

$901K​

|

$12K​

|

$554K​

|
RISP|

32​

|

$723K​

|

$509K​

|

$22K​

|

$-110K​

|
Fermion1|

4​

|

$657K​

|

$738K​

|

$-120K​

|

$265K​

|

|

Current Open|Long Trades|Short Trades|Option Trades|R/T Trades|R/T-Unique Stocks

2​

|

27​

|

4​

|

0​

|

13​

|

12​

|

3​

|

12​

|

0​

|

0​

|

5​

|

3​

|

2​

|

11​

|

0​

|

0​

|

4​

|

4​

|

2​

|

2​

|

0​

|

0​

|

0​

|

0​

|

1​

|

5​

|

0​

|

0​

|

0​

|

0​

|

8​

|

14​

|

0​

|

2​

|

2​

|

2​

|

0​

|

2​

|

0​

|

0​

|

0​

|

0​

|

10​

|

111​

|

5​

|

8​

|

65​

|

43​

|

6​

|

12​

|

0​

|

0​

|

0​

|

0​

|

29​

|

169​

|

1​

|

0​

|

78​

|

47​

|

5​

|

26​

|

0​

|

0​

|

8​

|

4​

|

21​

|

115​

|

1​

|

0​

|

51​

|

18​

|

2​

|

10​

|

0​

|

0​

|

0​

|

0​

|

3​

|

13​

|

0​

|

0​

|

1​

|

1​

|

5​

|

7​

|

0​

|

0​

|

0​

|

0​

|

2​

|

18​

|

0​

|

0​

|

0​

|

0​

|

5​

|

5​

|

0​

|

0​

|

0​

|

0​

|

17​

|

26​

|

0​

|

0​

|

0​

|

0​

|

1​

|

312​

|

2​

|

0​

|

174​

|

83​

|

8​

|

8​

|

0​

|

0​

|

0​

|

0​

|

3​

|

5​

|

2​

|

15​

|

7​

|

6​

|

7​

|

19​

|

0​

|

0​

|

0​

|

0​

|

2​

|

2​

|

0​

|

0​

|

0​

|

0​

|

5​

|

38​

|

8​

|

1​

|

21​

|

13​

|

0​

|

16​

|

2​

|

0​

|

10​

|

4​

|

|

Ticker Stock|Gain Loss|Gain/Loss Percent
NFLX|

$190K​

|

121%​

|
FAS|

$187K​

|

53%​

|
AER|

$149K​

|

31%​

|
ECYT|

$563K​

|

234%​

|
MU|

$59K​

|

39%​

|
ANET|

$84K​

|

27%​

|
VOO|

$108K​

|

21%​

|
CNCE|

$66K​

|

31%​

|
PYPL|

$3K​

|

13%​

|
IRMD|

$26K​

|

54%​

|
BOFI|

$274K​

|

56%​

|
NVDA|

$22K​

|

10%​

|
VNQI|

$30K​

|

9%​

|
VOO|

$62K​

|

19%​

|
AMZN|

$45K​

|

31%​

|
VXUS|

$15K​

|

6%​

|
TSLA|

$59K​

|

24%​

|
TGT|

$22K​

|

43%​

|
ANW|

$25K​

|

4%​

|
RYAM|

$34K​

|

20%​

|
NAVI|

$7K​

|

6%​

|
SDYL|

$13K​

|

23%​

|
none|

$0K​

|

?%​

|
BXC|

$39K​

|

57%​

|
NVDA|

$297K​

|

33%​

|

|

Ticker Stock|Gain Loss|Gain/Loss Percent
GIMO|

$-59K​

|

-21%​

|
SOXL|

$-36K​

|

-7%​

|
DB|

$11K​

|

6%​

|
CLSN|

$-244K​

|

-49%​

|
MU|

$59K​

|

39%​

|
CRSP|

$-4K​

|

-8%​

|
VTI|

$106K​

|

21%​

|
BB|

$-101K​

|

-20%​

|
JNJ|

$-14K​

|

-5%​

|
ICON|

$-23K​

|

-70%​

|
TEVA|

$-163K​

|

-51%​

|
ADOM|

$-10K​

|

-42%​

|
VEU|

$20K​

|

9%​

|
MNKD|

$-19K​

|

-9%​

|
VWO|

$-7K​

|

-8%​

|
BND|

$2K​

|

1%​

|
GRMN|

$5K​

|

8%​

|
CPB|

$-5K​

|

-10%​

|
RAD|

$-163K​

|

-26%​

|
GE|

$-3K​

|

-3%​

|
EDF|

$-34K​

|

-7%​

|
PSEC|

$-57K​

|

-16%​

|
CAT|

$-56K​

|

-11%​

|
LB|

$-34K​

|

-34%​

|
KITE|

$-312K​

|

133%​

|

Fermion close-up. Absolutely killing it with ECYT:

Player|Rank|Stock|Start|Start$|End|End/Now$|Difference|Gain/Loss
Fermion|

5​

|

CLSN​

|

10/11/2017​

|

495,040​

|

Open​

|

251,160​

|

-243,880​

|

-49%​

|
|

​

|

ECYT​

|

10/11/2017​

|

241,000​

|

Open​

|

804,000​

|

563,000​

|

234%​

|

 

[gstillson]

So how do you join this contest?

 

[easysurfer]

So how do you join this contest?

Sign up for account at Investopedia. Then you can search for contest and join. Link to first post of this thread:

http://www.early-retirement.org/forums/f44/stock-picking-beat-boho-contest-v2-0-a-86109.html

 

[Boho]

I deleted my cookies and now I can't log into Investopedia. I even successfully changed my password. I'll experiment more later.

 

[Boho]

Temporary glitch. I logged in.

 

[Boho]

I think I made two trades this month and two last month. My slowest 60 days so far.

I continued that trend this past month.

 

[ERD50]

Originally Posted by Boho
I think I made two trades this month and two last month. My slowest 60 days so far.

I continued that trend this past month.

By "trend", I assume you mean the trend of making few trades? Because in performance, you out-performed the napper in July, but under-performed in August, so I don't see any trend there (is 'volatility' a trend?).

I started putting these in a spreadsheet going back to NOV2017. You are now more negative (relative to 'the market') than you have ever been in that time frame.

-19.53% -$195,292 ( 25.96% for napper nunnun, versus 6.43% for Boho).


-ERD50

 

[Boho]

By "trend", I assume you mean the trend of making few trades?

Yes.

 

[sengsational]

K$|counts|best|worst

Player|Rank|Value of All|Value of:Open|Cash Balance|Average Cash
comsecga|

1​

|

$1,720K​

|

$1,821K​

|

$-101K​

|

$-51K​

|
Fermion|

2​

|

$1,509K​

|

$1,245K​

|

$264K​

|

$540K​

|
exnavynuke|

3​

|

$1,483K​

|

$1,763K​

|

$-280K​

|

$-349K​

|
kite_rider|

5​

|

$1,439K​

|

$1,777K​

|

$-339K​

|

$446K​

|
Totoro_ERF|

6​

|

$1,412K​

|

$1,244K​

|

$168K​

|

$136K​

|
cfahey27|

7​

|

$1,386K​

|

$1,373K​

|

$13K​

|

$357K​

|
nunnun|

8​

|

$1,260K​

|

$1,234K​

|

$26K​

|

$15K​

|
Spudd|

9​

|

$1,228K​

|

$1,372K​

|

$-144K​

|

$169K​

|
cdailey|

10​

|

$1,218K​

|

$2,007K​

|

$-789K​

|

$274K​

|
ransil|

11​

|

$1,170K​

|

$1,787K​

|

$-617K​

|

$736K​

|
sengsational|

12​

|

$1,161K​

|

$1,160K​

|

$1K​

|

$29K​

|
lbymfreddie|

13​

|

$1,158K​

|

$1,145K​

|

$13K​

|

$59K​

|
NormYoung|

14​

|

$1,133K​

|

$1,025K​

|

$108K​

|

$745K​

|
DieWurst|

15​

|

$1,116K​

|

$1,116K​

|

$0K​

|

$5K​

|
easysurfer|

16​

|

$1,114K​

|

$988K​

|

$125K​

|

$238K​

|
covert1|

17​

|

$1,100K​

|

$1,089K​

|

$11K​

|

$96K​

|
KCScubaSteve|

18​

|

$1,100K​

|

$1,097K​

|

$3K​

|

$779K​

|
nvestysly|

19​

|

$1,099K​

|

$1,089K​

|

$11K​

|

$313K​

|
underwrite|

20​

|

$1,070K​

|

$1,032K​

|

$38K​

|

$892K​

|
BohoII|

21​

|

$1,064K​

|

$494K​

|

$570K​

|

$317K​

|
lawrencewendall|

22​

|

$1,055K​

|

$1,592K​

|

$-538K​

|

$-541K​

|
RiskyBusinessC2|

23​

|

$1,000K​

|

$724K​

|

$276K​

|

$508K​

|
Clone2|

31​

|

$909K​

|

$894K​

|

$15K​

|

$531K​

|
RISP|

32​

|

$738K​

|

$715K​

|

$22K​

|

$-85K​

|
Fermion1|

4​

|

$722K​

|

$842K​

|

$-120K​

|

$255K​

|

|

Current Open|Long Trades|Short Trades|Option Trades|R/T Trades|R/T-Unique Stocks

6​

|

27​

|

4​

|

0​

|

13​

|

12​

|

2​

|

2​

|

0​

|

0​

|

0​

|

0​

|

4​

|

12​

|

0​

|

0​

|

5​

|

3​

|

11​

|

16​

|

0​

|

2​

|

1​

|

1​

|

2​

|

11​

|

0​

|

0​

|

4​

|

4​

|

4​

|

5​

|

0​

|

0​

|

0​

|

0​

|

2​

|

2​

|

0​

|

0​

|

0​

|

0​

|

9​

|

111​

|

12​

|

8​

|

68​

|

44​

|

12​

|

12​

|

0​

|

0​

|

0​

|

0​

|

22​

|

213​

|

2​

|

0​

|

91​

|

20​

|

30​

|

169​

|

1​

|

0​

|

76​

|

46​

|

5​

|

26​

|

0​

|

0​

|

8​

|

4​

|

6​

|

7​

|

0​

|

0​

|

0​

|

0​

|

3​

|

10​

|

0​

|

0​

|

0​

|

0​

|

3​

|

18​

|

0​

|

0​

|

0​

|

0​

|

4​

|

13​

|

0​

|

0​

|

1​

|

1​

|

5​

|

5​

|

0​

|

0​

|

0​

|

0​

|

20​

|

26​

|

0​

|

0​

|

0​

|

0​

|

8​

|

8​

|

0​

|

0​

|

0​

|

0​

|

3​

|

313​

|

2​

|

0​

|

193​

|

95​

|

8​

|

19​

|

0​

|

0​

|

0​

|

0​

|

3​

|

5​

|

2​

|

15​

|

1​

|

1​

|

2​

|

2​

|

0​

|

0​

|

0​

|

0​

|

6​

|

38​

|

8​

|

1​

|

21​

|

13​

|

1​

|

16​

|

2​

|

0​

|

10​

|

4​

|

|

Ticker Stock|Gain Loss|Gain/Loss Percent
NFLX|

$210K​

|

133%​

|
ECYT|

$745K​

|

309%​

|
FAS|

$195K​

|

55%​

|
ANET|

$136K​

|

43%​

|
AER|

$138K​

|

28%​

|
AAPL|

$223K​

|

48%​

|
VTI|

$119K​

|

24%​

|
LEDS|

$150K​

|

80%​

|
AMZN|

$113K​

|

39%​

|
NVDA|

$22K​

|

10%​

|
IRMD|

$26K​

|

54%​

|
BOFI|

$274K​

|

56%​

|
AMZN|

$58K​

|

40%​

|
VWO|

$29K​

|

6%​

|
VTI|

$76K​

|

21%​

|
VOO|

$69K​

|

21%​

|
NVDA|

$41K​

|

11%​

|
TGT|

$26K​

|

52%​

|
RYAM|

$36K​

|

21%​

|
ANW|

$25K​

|

4%​

|
SDYL|

$14K​

|

25%​

|
NAVI|

$7K​

|

6%​

|
none|

$0K​

|

?%​

|
SONC|

$43K​

|

43%​

|
NVDA|

$401K​

|

44%​

|

|

Ticker Stock|Gain Loss|Gain/Loss Percent
GIMO|

$-59K​

|

-21%​

|
CLSN|

$-236K​

|

-48%​

|
SOXL|

$-36K​

|

-7%​

|
JNUG|

$-18K​

|

-10%​

|
DB|

$11K​

|

6%​

|
NVDA|

$42K​

|

60%​

|
VOO|

$115K​

|

23%​

|
BB|

$-101K​

|

-20%​

|
BABA|

$-9K​

|

-7%​

|
FTR|

$-30K​

|

-32%​

|
ICON|

$-23K​

|

-70%​

|
TEVA|

$-163K​

|

-51%​

|
VWO|

$-10K​

|

-11%​

|
VEU|

$16K​

|

8%​

|
BND|

$2K​

|

1%​

|
MNKD|

$-48K​

|

-22%​

|
TSLA|

$-1K​

|

-0%​

|
GE|

$-26K​

|

-45%​

|
GE|

$-3K​

|

-3%​

|
RAD|

$-140K​

|

-24%​

|
FTR|

$-124K​

|

-62%​

|
EDF|

$-61K​

|

-13%​

|
CAT|

$-58K​

|

-12%​

|
LB|

$-45K​

|

-45%​

|
KITE|

$-312K​

|

133%​

|

BohoII had 77 trades in January and only 8 in the last 3 months. ransil is a late starter, but has over 150 trades in the last 3 months.

Player|03/17|04/17|05/17|06/17|07/17|08/17|09/17|10/17|11/17|12/17|01/18|02/18|03/18|04/18|05/18|06/18|07/18|08/18
comsecga|0|15|11|5|0|0|0|0|0|0|0|0|0|0|0|0|0|0
Fermion|0|0|0|0|0|0|0|2|0|0|0|0|0|0|0|0|0|0
exnavynuke|1|7|0|0|2|2|0|0|0|0|0|0|0|0|0|0|0|0
Fermion1|0|0|7|10|0|0|0|1|0|0|0|0|0|0|0|0|0|0
kite_rider|0|0|0|0|0|0|0|6|0|0|0|0|2|6|1|1|0|2
Totoro_ERF|1|0|6|0|0|0|0|0|0|0|0|0|4|0|0|0|0|0
cfahey27|0|0|0|0|0|0|5|0|0|0|0|0|0|0|0|0|0|0
nunnun|2|0|0|0|0|0|0|0|0|0|0|0|0|0|0|0|0|0
Spudd|3|14|8|8|2|1|0|22|9|16|8|7|3|6|2|4|7|11
cdailey|0|0|0|0|0|0|0|0|0|0|0|12|0|0|0|0|0|0
ransil|0|0|0|0|0|0|0|0|0|0|0|0|0|21|36|61|44|53
sengsational|0|30|12|12|10|10|0|10|13|0|11|10|5|10|9|10|0|18
lbymfreddie|0|7|2|3|5|1|0|2|0|0|0|2|4|0|0|0|0|0
NormYoung|0|0|0|0|0|0|0|0|0|0|0|0|0|7|0|0|0|0
DieWurst|4|0|0|1|0|1|0|0|0|2|0|0|1|0|0|0|1|0
easysurfer|3|3|3|3|3|3|0|0|0|0|0|0|0|0|0|0|0|0
covert1|0|0|5|6|0|0|1|0|0|0|0|0|0|1|0|0|0|0
KCScubaSteve|0|0|0|0|0|0|0|0|0|0|0|0|0|0|5|0|0|0
nvestysly|0|0|0|0|0|0|20|0|1|1|1|0|2|1|0|0|0|0
underwrite|0|0|0|0|0|0|0|0|0|0|0|0|0|0|0|0|8|0
BohoII|1|11|15|12|11|0|0|16|18|64|77|17|31|21|13|4|3|1
lawrencewendall|1|10|5|1|1|1|0|0|0|0|0|0|0|0|0|0|0|0
RiskyBusinessC2|0|0|1|4|2|1|6|4|0|1|0|1|1|1|0|0|0|0
Clone2|0|0|0|0|0|0|0|0|0|2|0|0|0|0|0|0|0|0
RISP|15|9|4|1|1|0|0|1|3|3|1|1|8|0|0|0|0|0

 

[sengsational]

covert1 surges from 17th to 10th place over the last few days. Here are the trades:

Player|Rank|Stock|Start|Start$|End|End/Now$|Difference|Gain/Loss
covert1|

10​

|

BRK.B​

|

05/11/2017​

|

163,290​

|

Open​

|

214,040​

|

50,750​

|

31%​

|
||

DFE​

|

09/03/2017​

|

320,333​

|

Open​

|

309,477​

|

-10,856​

|

-3%​

|
||

MNKD​

|

09/08/2017​

|

222,370​

|

Open​

|

282,130​

|

59,760​

|

27%​

|
||

O​

|

05/11/2017​

|

272,710​

|

06/02/2017​

|

283,300​

|

10,590​

|

4%​

|
||

VOO​

|

05/25/2017​

|

331,175​

|

Open​

|

396,270​

|

65,095​

|

20%​

|

MNKD went from the biggest loser to almost the biggest winner with the news that they have more time to develop inhaled insulin.

 

[Boho]

I have a nice little counter-market portfolio. I think I'll keep it.

 

[ERD50]

I have a nice little counter-market portfolio. I think I'll keep it.

It's not hard, anyone can do it:

-ERD50

 

[ERD50]

Any EOM update?

TIA - ERD50