Stock Picking (Beat Boho) Contest - V2.0

[sengsational]

The simulator will put dividends into your cash account. You have to reinvest them manually.

 

[natetheb]

The simulator will put dividends into your cash account. You have to reinvest them manually.

Thanks. Not ideal, but I can definitely work with that. This is good, I hope to compare an investment strategy I am considering for the long term. I am going to try to compare the performance of the standard index fund to some momentum funds, as well as compare against REITs. Also, I am having some fun by investing in Amazon and some Chinese stocks. This will probably be the only time in my life I will ever "own" Amazon stock (too rich for me) so I thought I would have some fun. My current allocation is:


Standard Index: VOO
Momentum Indexes: MTUM, VFMO
Quarterly Dividend REITs: MFA, NYMT, CHIM
Monthly dividend REIT: AGNC
Fun stocks: AMZN, CQQQ


I don't plan on changing anything except selling AMZN after the Christmas purchasing rush is over. I will either reinvest that cash in an international index or VOO.

 

[Boho]

EOM results:

 

[ERD50]

So compared to our index B&H reference from nunnun, Boho had a relatively good month in October, with ~ 1% better relative performance for the month.

But since the contest start, Boho's trading portfolio has gained just 0.69% , while the 'do nothing' approach from nunnun has returned 17.66%.

Boho's rank is 19 out of 34, versus 7out of 34 for nunnun.

And so it goes...

-ERD50

 

[braumeister]

It's a long way from over.

Since the start of this year, Boho has rocketed up from 21st place to, um, 19th. Way to go, Bo!

 

[SecondCor521]

So compared to our index B&H reference from nunnun, Boho had a relatively good month in October, with ~ 1% better relative performance for the month.

But since the contest start, Boho's trading portfolio has gained just 0.69% , while the 'do nothing' approach from nunnun has returned 17.66%.

Boho's rank is 19 out of 34, versus 7out of 34 for nunnun.

And so it goes...

-ERD50

Or about 50 cents per hour. But that 50 cents per hour is 24/7, so there's that.

 

[ERD50]

Or about 50 cents per hour. But that 50 cents per hour is 24/7, so there's that.

The way I calculate this, Boho has lost $13.00 per hour (24/7 - waking, sleeping, every hour of his life during this contest!).

Considering nunnun has put nearly zero hours into this, and Boho is $169,676 behind him, and there has been ~ 13,056 hours since the start of the contest.

That hurts!

Now, just think about if we allocated the relative loss to just the hours Boho has spent researching and following his trades. If one hour per day, that's losing $312/hour! Double ouch!

-ERD50

 

[Boho]

Here’s a reminder that stock-market corrections don’t always become bear markets

When they did occur, bear markets over the past 90 years resulted in an average decline of 37% over 358 days

I gained about 1% over nunnun in one month of a "correction territory" market. That would be about 12% over a 358 day bear market. That would put me at about 12% gain overall in the contest while nunnun would drop 37% from his 17.66% making me far ahead. So far that somewhat less than a bear market could easily put me ahead too.

Kind of. That's my rough calculation anyway.

 

[ERD50]

Here’s a reminder that stock-market corrections don’t always become bear markets



I gained about 1% over nunnun in one month of a "correction territory" market. That would be about 12% over a 358 day bear market. That would put me at about 12% gain overall in the contest while nunnun would drop 37% from his 17.66% making me far ahead. So far that somewhat less than a bear market could easily put me ahead too.

But I don't accept that you will consistently outperform the market in a bear.

You still own only a few stocks, right? The volatility can work either way.


Hmmm, take FEB2018 for example. Nunnun was down -3.69% and you were down even further, -3.90%. So you sure can't count on that.

And nunnun more than made up in some other months, like:


AUG 2018 - nunnun was up 3.26%, while Boho was down -1.67%.

And that is why you are doing so poorly. Even if your 'approach' (which hasn't really been defined) works in a bear, the market mostly goes up, so that's a really bad strategy. But you don't need me to tell you that, the numbers show you.

Good Luck! (if we can call 'luck' a 'strategy!)

-ERD50

 

[Boho]

I hadn't heard we were in "correction territory" before this month, much less a bear market. Maybe I can't win every single down month.

 

[natetheb]

I gained about 1% over nunnun in one month of a "correction territory" market. That would be about 12% over a 358 day bear market. That would put me at about 12% gain overall in the contest while nunnun would drop 37% from his 17.66% making me far ahead. So far that somewhat less than a bear market could easily put me ahead too.

Kind of. That's my rough calculation anyway.

I thought this was a marathon type contest, not a "I have the fastest mile sprint within a 26.2 mile contest?"


I don't know if you have ever run a marathon, but 100% of the runners of said event don't give 2 sips of Gatorade about a singular mileage split, it is about consistency over all 26.2 miles.

 

[ERD50]

I hadn't heard we were in "correction territory" before this month, much less a bear market. Maybe I can't win every single down month.

Now I'm back to wondering if you are just trolling us. How can you actually say " Maybe I can't win every single down month."?

There is no 'maybe' about it. I showed you a down month that you didn't win.

... Hmmm, take FEB2018 for example. Nunnun was down -3.69% and you were down even further, -3.90%. So you sure can't count on that. ...

-ERD50

 

[jazz4cash]

I’m not following too closely so I could use an explanation. It appears that Boho at #19 with a gain of <1% is barely ahead of several participants that are at exactly $1M and others that are in the red. Should I assume the players with exactly $1M are in cash and inactive? And Boho is barely ahead? Can the program apply any interest from cash investments like MM or CDs? It seems these would be ahead of Boho at this point.

 

[Boho]

I’m not following too closely so I could use an explanation. It appears that Boho at #19 with a gain of <1% is barely ahead of several participants that are at exactly $1M and others that are in the red. Should I assume the players with exactly $1M are in cash and inactive? And Boho is barely ahead? Can the program apply any interest from cash investments like MM or CDs? It seems these would be ahead of Boho at this point.

I don't know about interest but you can see if a player has bought anything by clicking "history" next to their name. I believe everyone with $1,000,000 has been totally inactive.

 

[ransil]

Woo hoo im not in last place !

 

[SecondCor521]

Boho's rank is 19 out of 34, versus 7 out of 34 for nunnun.

I think it's even worse. I don't really consider the people in 21st through 27th place to be legitimate entrants in the conversation.

 

[jazz4cash]

I think it's even worse. I don't really consider the people in 21st through 27th place to be legitimate entrants in the conversation.

Yes. That was my conclusion when I asked about the players with balances of exactly $1M.

 

[ERD50]

I think it's even worse. I don't really consider the people in 21st through 27th place to be legitimate entrants in the conversation.

Yes. That was my conclusion when I asked about the players with balances of exactly $1M.

Understood, but we can keep them there for when Boho goes negative!

-ERD50

 

[ERD50]

Woo hoo im not in last place !

Congrats! And I'm sure there will be a 'participation trophy'!

And that puts you ahead of me, since I'm not playing. This is a spectator sport for me.

-ERD50

 

[Boho]

It's a long way from over.

Since the start of this year, Boho has rocketed up from 21st place to, um, 19th. Way to go, Bo!

Nunnun beat me by about 1.5% since the beginning of the year and I beat him by about .5% in 12 months.

 

[natetheb]

Nunnun beat me by about 1.5% since the beginning of the year and I beat him by about .5% in 12 months.

I want to start by saying I am not trying to pick a fight or insult in anyway by asking this question, I am asking truly out of curiosity and to be educated.


What is your stock picking method? What are you looking for before you buy shares?

 

[sengsational]

Based on comments, it seems like choices are based on aspects of company's future prospects, and not a lot of evidence that the decision was influenced by whether the price was considered 'cheap' or not. This would suggest that the method depends on putting together facts in a way that is smarter than the rest of the market.

 

[ERD50]

I want to start by saying I am not trying to pick a fight or insult in anyway by asking this question, I am asking truly out of curiosity and to be educated.


What is your stock picking method? What are you looking for before you buy shares?

I've never been able to figure it out, seems to be a sort of strategy-de-jour? Something to do with Rock, Paper, Scissors?

http://www.early-retirement.org/forums/f44/do-you-know-how-people-think-85695.html#post1846075

Do you know how people think?
I do. Several years ago I played a rock paper scissors game against a computer that learned from playing other people and I destroyed it. I found this old snapshot of my results. I think this means I could time the market. ....

Though considering his (lack of) results, I'm really not too interested.

Or he's trolling us. I'm still undecided on that.

-ERD50

 

[Boho]

I want to start by saying I am not trying to pick a fight or insult in anyway by asking this question, I am asking truly out of curiosity and to be educated.


What is your stock picking method? What are you looking for before you buy shares?

I use a certain procedure to identify a certain class of stocks that are experiencing an unexplained dip and I buy those under certain conditions. If I cant find any, I look for certain kinds of explained dips that I believe are due to overreactions or other kinds of investor error or that I believe are temporary.

 

[Boho]

Here's my most recent trade history: