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Old 06-07-2018, 02:59 PM   #841
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I didn't do the math. ...
Interesting. So you haven't done the math, yet you comment on it, calling it "so much cash", and says he's "over-protected from market dips"? Without even doing a rough estimate in your head?

Investing is about numbers. If you don't do the numbers, what to expect?

I'm still wondering if you are trolling us.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Boho View Post
... I started thinking about the advantage it may give him. ...
Advantage? Cash is a drag in the long run. Are you not aware of that? Seriously? Sure, having cash at the right time helps. That's market timing, and clearly nunnun is not following that approach.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Boho View Post
.... I don't buy the "can't compete" argument and I don't think anyone claims the market to be 100% efficient anyway.
I don't claim the market is 100% efficient. And I don't care who does or does not.

I really don't claim anything. I only suggest that people look up the data for themselves. Let the data talk. The data says that stock picking just does not hold up to scrutiny. Sure, some will succeed. That's expected. You'll also find lots of survivor bias in the anecdotes.

Here's a thought for a contest - "The Biggest Loser". Select 10 stocks to hold for one year, and the goal is to lose the most $ in that one year . I would not be surprised if the outcomes/distributions were not too different from the contests where winning is the goal. There have been some studies to suggest the currently viewed losers outperform later - they exceed the low expectations.

-ERD50
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Old 06-07-2018, 03:06 PM   #842
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ERD50 View Post
Here's a thought for a contest - "The Biggest Loser". Select 10 stocks to hold for one year, and the goal is to lose the most $ in that one year . I would not be surprised if the outcomes/distributions were not too different from the contests where winning is the goal.

Conceptually, trying to pick losing companies is as hard as trying to pick winning companies.


If you can do one, you by definition can do the other.
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Old 06-07-2018, 03:13 PM   #843
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Totoro View Post
Conceptually, trying to pick losing companies is as hard as trying to pick winning companies.


If you can do one, you by definition can do the other.
Exactly, that's why I think it could be interesting. -ERD50
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Old 06-07-2018, 03:24 PM   #844
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ERD50 View Post
Interesting. So you haven't done the math, yet you comment on it, calling it "so much cash", and says he's "over-protected from market dips"? Without even doing a rough estimate in your head?

Investing is about numbers. If you don't do the numbers, what to expect?
My skills transcend math. In the contest I try to buy about $200,000 - $300,000 of each of my stocks by adjusting the maximum down a bit. I'm often off since the max depends on volume and I'm lazy with the math but I'm still gaining ground.

Quote:
Advantage? Cash is a drag in the long run. Are you not aware of that?
People who time the market like myself think they know when cash is good, and we need cash for trading, but I actually changed my trading because of what I heard about cash being a drag. I try to stay more invested than I used to. That's one of the reason's I bought an index fund in this contest a few times and why I was intending to hold an international fund for a decent amount of time (I changed plans about the latter).
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Old 06-07-2018, 03:48 PM   #845
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My skills transcend math. ...
Oh, to answer one of the previous posts, this is why I follow this thread, for these pearls of wisdom!

When DW gets home, I will calmly say - "My skills transcend making the bed and putting the dishes away!" That's the ticket.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Boho View Post
... People who time the market like myself think they know when cash is good, and we need cash for trading, but I actually changed my trading because of what I heard about cash being a drag. I try to stay more invested than I used to. That's one of the reason's I bought an index fund in this contest a few times and why I was intending to hold an international fund for a decent amount of time (I changed plans about the latter).
So you thought you knew when cash was good, until someone mentioned otherwise? That's conviction for you!

Notice that nunnun has not changed strategy? Notice that he's ahead of you? You ought to look around, observe, study, and learn. Or do you 'transcend' that too?

I still can't decide if this is 'fun' or not.

-ERD50
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Old 06-08-2018, 01:31 AM   #846
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Originally Posted by ERD50 View Post
To your last point (if you are still listening!), I'm not so sure someone can learn much about investing from a contest like this - what 'worked' in one market might not work in another. It might have been 'luck' (let's just call it volatility that comes with a concentrated portfolio). I prefer to look at big studies, and think it through in terms of logic (if you can 'know' what a stock is doing, won't others also know - driving up the price and eliminating opportunities for excess gains?). With lots of smart people and fast computers focused on this, I think it is a bit crazy to think one can win (edit - "consistently win") beyond the market returns.

-ERD50
Umm, yea I'm still listening - reading actually. I think you can actually learn a lot from a contest like this. Things like stock tips, especially when people take the time to explain their reasons for buying and selling. You can get a feel for other's level of anxiety or greed in various market situations and see how they react. You can also see how disciplined you are in various scenarios and how well you actually react vs how you thought you might react.

Per your original implication that passive traders always win and active traders lose; this may be true on average and over the long run. But as Keynes famously said; "In the long run we are all dead.". What matters in this game is how well you play over this time period and with this existing market.

As I've already said, I think the skilled players will rise to the top of this game and the B&H indexers will be slightly 'above the average'. I may be wrong, but that's why I'm playing the game.

I've got no problem with friendly banter between you and Boho (or others); it's often fun to watch. However, I hope the whole thread is not just about the 'active trader vs passive trader' meme without giving oxygen to the traders who actually want to 'Beat Boho' with what they think are superior trading skills.
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Old 06-08-2018, 08:43 AM   #847
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kite_rider View Post
Umm, yea I'm still listening - reading actually. I think you can actually learn a lot from a contest like this. Things like stock tips, especially when people take the time to explain their reasons for buying and selling. You can get a feel for other's level of anxiety or greed in various market situations and see how they react. You can also see how disciplined you are in various scenarios and how well you actually react vs how you thought you might react. ...
I suppose, but if you B&H, most of that doesn't apply. Seems moot to me. OK, a practicing B&H'er can be affected by emotion and might do something like sell at the low, but I don;t see where individual stocks versus funds come into play in that. It's a common theme.

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Originally Posted by kite_rider View Post
... Per your original implication that passive traders always win and active traders lose; ...
I never said that (and I'm a 'never say never' person). I've always said there will be a distribution across active traders, some winners some losers. With a large enough sample size and time period, I'd expect an approximate log-normal curve.

Quote:
Originally Posted by kite_rider View Post
... this may be true on average and over the long run. But as Keynes famously said; "In the long run we are all dead.". What matters in this game is how well you play over this time period and with this existing market. ....
Well, long run is the real game we all play. My point is (other than entertainment), I don't think that a game "you play over this time period and with this existing market" will teach us much about the real, long run game.

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Originally Posted by kite_rider View Post
As I've already said, I think the skilled players will rise to the top of this game and the B&H indexers will be slightly 'above the average'. I may be wrong, but that's why I'm playing the game. ...
What I've deduced form all the studies, and by putting thought into this, is there is no such thing as a 'skilled' stock-picker (or at least they are super-rare).

It's not like being a carpenter, dentist, plumber, musician, or doctor. Those are skills that can be developed and honed with education, experience, tools, practice. But when you pick a stock, you are trying to predict the future - that is not a skill set that can be developed and honed.

Because it's not about picking 'good stocks'. Good stocks are already bought up to levels that will make it hard for them to beat the market (on average). If you think you can pick overlooked good stocks, now you are in competition with those smart people with deep resources.

A preemptive strike: I expect to hear "we can agree to disagree on that", but I say you are not disagreeing with me, you are disagreeing with all the studies that show this.

Quote:
Originally Posted by kite_rider View Post
... However, I hope the whole thread is not just about the 'active trader vs passive trader' meme without giving oxygen to the traders who actually want to 'Beat Boho' with what they think are superior trading skills.
Well, for me, the thing to take-away is the active-passive 'meme' (if you want to call it that). But it would be interesting to hear from the top and bottom players, especially the consistent top players. Was it mostly one or two good trades? Are they consistently trading well?

Here's a thought - This is a 3 year contest, right? How about a new 3 year contest is started every 6 months, or maybe every three months, and players (other than a few passive index benchmark players) agree not to trade the same stocks across contests. Can they consistently find under-valued 'good stocks'?

-ERD50
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Old 06-08-2018, 12:39 PM   #848
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Originally Posted by exnavynuke View Post

If you haven't decided exactly when you'd get out of a trade, you have no exit strategy for a loss. I'd wager that's your current condition based on your responses here. That's not how you take a calculated risk, it's a method of "hoping for the best".
Exnavynuke, do you have an exit strategy for a gain? Are you planning to hold your indexes (and leveraged indexes) till the end or have you already set an exit price?

I ask since I feel like I'm fairly comfortable about timing a 'buy', but want to get more practice with a 'sell'.

Recent example in my portfolio is Zscaler (ZS). Not a company I know a whole lot about, but it seemed to fit the narrow segment I'm most excited about investing in; cloud centric networking hardware. They had a big jump yesterday and I'm torn between riding it out for more possible upside or just taking my gains...
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Old 06-12-2018, 09:48 PM   #849
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K$countsbestworst
PlayerRankValue of AllValue of:OpenCash BalanceAverage Cash
comsecga
1
$1,770K
$777K
$-101K
$-42K
Totoro_ERF
2
$1,478K
$1,310K
$168K
$131K
exnavynuke
3
$1,385K
$1,164K
$-285K
$-362K
cfahey27
5
$1,287K
$501K
$9K
$420K
kite_rider
6
$1,285K
$1,163K
$-201K
$564K
lbymfreddie
7
$1,262K
$1,254K
$8K
$67K
Fermion
9
$1,240K
$241K
$264K
$591K
covert1
8
$1,208K
$1,013K
$0K
$109K
nunnun
10
$1,207K
$1,213K
$21K
$13K
sengsational
11
$1,189K
$1,064K
$59K
$25K
Spudd
13
$1,179K
$1,176K
$3K
$210K
DieWurst
12
$1,172K
$606K
$-0K
$4K
ransil
14
$1,128K
$713K
$410K
$876K
NormYoung
17
$1,092K
$986K
$106K
$861K
easysurfer
16
$1,091K
$551K
$120K
$258K
BohoII
15
$1,089K
$478K
$280K
$287K
cdailey
18
$1,081K
$578K
$-792K
$469K
nvestysly
19
$1,068K
$864K
$5K
$369K
KCScubaSteve
20
$1,059K
$1,059K
$1K
$921K
lawrencewendall
21
$1,045K
$1,512K
$-580K
$-538K
Clone2
23
$1,007K
$997K
$10K
$624K
RiskyBusinessC2
22
$1,007K
$747K
$260K
$548K
RISP
31
$731K
$711K
$20K
$-180K
Fermion1
4
$667K
$738K
$-121K
$294K
Current OpenLong TradesShort TradesOption TradesR/T TradesR/T-Unique Stocks
2
27
4
0
13
12
2
11
0
0
4
4
3
12
0
0
5
3
0
5
0
0
0
0
9
14
0
1
1
1
5
26
0
0
8
4
1
2
0
0
0
0
3
13
0
0
1
1
0
2
0
0
0
0
28
141
1
0
63
40
10
102
4
5
59
38
2
9
0
0
0
0
23
66
1
0
28
4
6
7
0
0
0
0
2
18
0
0
0
0
2
309
2
0
173
82
6
12
0
0
0
0
16
26
0
0
0
0
5
5
0
0
0
0
7
19
0
0
0
0
2
2
0
0
0
0
3
5
2
15
7
6
6
38
8
1
21
13
0
16
2
0
10
4
Ticker StockGain LossGain/Loss Percent
SHOP
$233K
130%
MAT
$192K
38%
FAS
$163K
46%
AAPL
$41K
9%
ANET
$101K
32%
BOFI
$373K
76%
none
$0K
?%
MNKD
$69K
31%
VOO
$108K
21%
IRMD
$26K
54%
CNCE
$66K
31%
VNQI
$47K
14%
NVDA
$22K
10%
FB
$31K
19%
VXUS
$23K
9%
ANW
$25K
4%
PYPL
$3K
10%
INTC
$28K
56%
TSLA
$33K
13%
SDYL
$9K
15%
CAT
$1K
0%
NAVI
$7K
6%
BXC
$39K
57%
NVDA
$297K
33%
Ticker StockGain LossGain/Loss Percent
GIMO
$-59K
-21%
DB
$11K
6%
SOXL
$-36K
-7%
AAPL
$41K
9%
BOTZ
$-0K
-1%
TEVA
$-163K
-51%
CLSN
$-254K
-51%
O
$11K
4%
VTI
$106K
21%
ICON
$-23K
-70%
BB
$-101K
-20%
VEU
$26K
13%
FTR
$-4K
-6%
VWO
$-4K
-4%
BND
$-11K
-4%
RAD
$-163K
-26%
JNJ
$-32K
-11%
CPB
$-12K
-25%
AAPL
$3K
1%
PSEC
$-55K
-16%
DE
$-3K
-1%
EDF
$-41K
-9%
LB
$-24K
-24%
KITE
$-312K
133%

And there's an active player here:

PlayerRankStockStartStart$EndEnd/Now$DifferenceGain/Loss
ransil
14
ADOM
05/23/2018
24,000
Open
25,800
1,800
8%
  
CGC
06/07/2018
60,630
Open
59,200
-1,430
-2%
  
CIT
05/06/2018
35,387
Open
36,211
824
2%
  
CSCO
04/02/2018
85,050
Open
89,660
4,610
5%
  
CX
04/30/2018
35,690
Open
36,720
1,030
3%
  
DBX
05/13/2018
62,090
Open
61,660
-430
-1%
  
DRYS
04/02/2018
2,960
05/21/2018
3,187
226
8%
  
EBIO
04/05/2018
6,515
Open
13,825
7,310
112%
  
ECYT
06/06/2018
-12,720
Open
-14,690
-1,970
15%
  
EVC
05/31/2018
35,700
Open
40,500
4,800
13%
  
F
04/02/2018
55,315
Open
60,470
5,155
9%
  
FB
04/02/2018
156,252
04/27/2018
173,635
17,383
11%
  
FLEX
05/25/2018
69,350
Open
70,300
950
1%
  
FTR
05/24/2018
65,840
Open
62,160
-3,680
-6%
  
GE
04/02/2018
134,520
Open
149,079
14,559
11%
  
HTBX
05/09/2018
37,515
Open
43,380
5,865
16%
  
JPM
04/08/2018
120,888
Open
121,209
321
0%
  
MU
04/02/2018
103,095
Open
112,619
9,524
9%
  
NATI
05/16/2018
41,000
Open
43,430
2,430
6%
  
NTNX
04/02/2018
48,295
Open
59,981
11,686
24%
  
NVDA
04/02/2018
226,473
05/10/2018
248,482
22,010
10%
  
QCOM
04/23/2018
5,105
Open
6,178
1,073
21%
  
SO
05/18/2018
21,355
Open
21,720
365
2%
  
SPOT
04/05/2018
29,270
Open
32,361
3,091
11%
  
UPL
05/19/2018
106,925
Open
122,930
16,005
15%
  
USB
04/30/2018
44,759
Open
46,107
1,348
3%
  
XOM
04/02/2018
74,280
04/05/2018
75,640
1,360
2%
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Old 06-16-2018, 09:56 AM   #850
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Originally Posted by kite_rider View Post
Exnavynuke, do you have an exit strategy for a gain? Are you planning to hold your indexes (and leveraged indexes) till the end or have you already set an exit price?

I ask since I feel like I'm fairly comfortable about timing a 'buy', but want to get more practice with a 'sell'.

Recent example in my portfolio is Zscaler (ZS). Not a company I know a whole lot about, but it seemed to fit the narrow segment I'm most excited about investing in; cloud centric networking hardware. They had a big jump yesterday and I'm torn between riding it out for more possible upside or just taking my gains...
My plan is to hold these positions through the end of the contest.

In real life, my plan is quite similar (though not leveraged). I plan to hold the index funds long-term and sell as needed to fund withdrawals in retirements. This works well when dealing with long-term positions.

Trades, unlike investments, are much more volatile, and thus necessitate planning to control risk. The planning necessary to be successful long-term trading needs to control both entry and exit points as well as portfolio management. That's what allows risk management when trading, while indexing over the long-term provides risk management in investing (by controlling asset allocation, diversification etc etc).

As a general rule, no one knows what will happen to a given stock in the future. They could have an "enron-level" bad press day tomorrow or they could announce the cure for cancer tomorrow. Or they could just chug along with the overall market, sometimes outperforming and sometimes under-performing. When trading, that volatility provides much higher risk and thus has to be controlled in some manner to be successful long-term.

Now, lots of people can be successful in a bull market, as picking "winners" is easy (as long as your definition of winner is you make money). You can even find a good number of people who develop methods of picking winners that outperform "overall", but they're going to pick losers too. That's why the strategy has to control entries AND exits for all trades, because ten stocks, held for 10 days each, giving 10% returns when investing each and invested one right after the other can still result in a loss if your eleventh pick loses 75% in 5 days before you decide to give up on it... or a 100% loss if you let it keep going until bankruptcy.

IMO, picking stocks is the "easy" part of trading. Managing risk for long-term success is the hard part. Getting a 60-75% success rate with trades wasn't that hard when I was a trader. Learning to manage risk overall so those winners resulted in a winning portfolio wasn't too difficult, once I recognized that needed to be done. Trying to justify the time needed to be successful at both of those things vs the returns available with index investing, however, proved to be a fruitless endeavor for me so I switched to index investing instead.
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Old 06-16-2018, 01:17 PM   #851
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If I think I can make a better buy than an index fund, I don't worry about my exit very much. If you get a better deal from a stock buy than someone else, you're ahead of the game. You might as well hold the way index investors do. It's only when you decide, for whatever reason, that it's a good time to sell, that you should sell. If you're not sure and you're scared then just hold and you're already ahead of the game just by getting the better price. Diversify if you want less risk.

I feel the same way about exit strategies in war. Sometimes you have to take a chance and not take the time plan everything that could occur years from now. Situations could be that bleak. Sometimes it's worth fighting an indefinite war to keep things somewhat in check. Exit strategies are over rated.
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Old 06-16-2018, 03:03 PM   #852
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If I think I can make a better buy than an index fund, I don't worry about my exit very much. If you get a better deal from a stock buy than someone else, you're ahead of the game. You might as well hold the way index investors do. It's only when you decide, for whatever reason, that it's a good time to sell, that you should sell. If you're not sure and you're scared then just hold and you're already ahead of the game just by getting the better price. Diversify if you want less risk.

I feel the same way about exit strategies in war. Sometimes you have to take a chance and not take the time plan everything that could occur years from now. Situations could be that bleak. Sometimes it's worth fighting an indefinite war to keep things somewhat in check. Exit strategies are over rated.
It is not my intent to belittle or patronize you, but you sound like a child when you state this.
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Old 06-16-2018, 03:40 PM   #853
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It is not my intent to belittle or patronize you, but you sound like a child when you state this.
That's better than not realizing it in the mature way. It's ridiculous how many people don't get "buy low." You could by at a random time or take a shot at finding low prices. Just a common sense shot without reading about any systems for determining when it's low enough.

All I'm saying is that everything you do as an index investor could remain the same with the only change being to buy some part of the index when the price seems to be especially good.

And what kind of exit strategy to you want when some horrible event is occurring by people intent to keep it going? You have to fight against something like that whether there's an agreed upon exit plan or not.

I had no exit plan when I started this post and I bet you have none for yours. Sometimes it's OK to wing it.
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Old 06-16-2018, 03:58 PM   #854
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I had no exit plan when I started this post and I bet you have none for yours. Sometimes it's OK to wing it.
I completely agree that intuition can be helpful and sometimes it is completely OK to wing it.

Buy for me it's not OK with my finances.

Especially when there are demonstrated techniques for maximizing return while minimizing risk. And those techniques consist of buy and hold of low cost index funds, yearly rebalancing, and withdraw rates consistent with my financial plan.
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Old 06-16-2018, 04:10 PM   #855
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I completely agree that intuition can be helpful and sometimes it is completely OK to wing it.

Buy for me it's not OK with my finances.

Especially when there are demonstrated techniques for maximizing return while minimizing risk. And those techniques consist of buy and hold of low cost index funds, yearly rebalancing, and withdraw rates consistent with my financial plan.
That's what I'd recommend to people, but for myself I still feel like I should be considering more stuff, and if it doesn't work for 99% of people then that tells me just to be really careful. Some trading seem obvious enough to me and I need to try it out.
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Old 06-16-2018, 04:17 PM   #856
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That's what I'd recommend to people, but for myself I still feel like I should be considering more stuff, and if it doesn't work for 99% of people then that tells me just to be really careful. Some trading seem obvious enough to me and I need to try it out.
Great so that makes you a 1%er!
How are your results?
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Old 06-16-2018, 06:31 PM   #857
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Great so that makes you a 1%er!
How are your results?
Arguably not enough track record before I quit in real life. I didn't have a margin account and couldn't trade like I wanted to.
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Old 06-16-2018, 06:42 PM   #858
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Arguably not enough track record before I quit in real life. I didn't have a margin account and couldn't trade like I wanted to.
But you started with $1,000,000 here.
How's your record?
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Old 06-16-2018, 06:52 PM   #859
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But you started with $1,000,000 here.
How's your record?
He's way ahead of everyone else - see this: Stock Picking (Beat Boho) Contest - V2.0
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Old 06-16-2018, 07:01 PM   #860
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But you started with $1,000,000 here.
How's your record?
About an 89% successful trade record. I was number one for a good amount of time but now...you can see for yourself in recent posts how I compare to nunnun who's an index investor. I have almost two years to catch up which I've been doing steadily for months.
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