Stock Picking (Beat Boho) Contest - V2.0

[dixonge]

I had a problem buying DIA on 11/19/2018 that I posted about. I gave up. Maybe you're trying to by an odd security with a similar problem.

Buying in the middle of the trading day helps sometimes but it didn't help with DIA.

two different widely traded index ETF's, all times of the trading day

 

[ERD50]

So can anyone post an EOM update?

TIA - ERD50

 

[SecondCor521]

Current Rank	Previous day's rank	Account Value (USD)	Today's change in value	Overall%
1. Fermion	1	$1,591,705.02	$-2,730.00	59.17%
2. Spudd	2	$1,483,701.01	$-15,644.00	48.37%
3. comsecga	3	$1,256,475.81	$21,018.00	25.65%
4. kite_rider	4	$1,135,085.88	$15,610.00	13.51%
5. nunnun	5	$1,093,663.16	$9,675.40	9.37%
6. exnavynuke	6	$1,054,335.14	$19,780.00	5.43%
7. DieWurst	7	$1,030,937.28	$-395.47	3.09%
8. easysurfer	8	$1,016,615.68	$4,729.99	1.66%
9. wmc1000	0	$1,010,223.43	$0.00	1.02%
10. Totoro_ERF	20	$1,003,342.61	$3,540.00	0.33%
11. nvestysly	21	$1,000,829.49	$8,151.77	0.08%
12. Fermion1	9	$1,000,449.67	$-450.00	0.04%
13. t3ztam3nt	10	$1,000,207.51	$118.00	0.02%
14. luckyclub	19	$1,000,000.00	$0.00	0.00%
15. garyweis	15	$1,000,000.00	$0.00	0.00%
16. longshot345kv	17	$1,000,000.00	$0.00	0.00%
17. Gayl	11	$1,000,000.00	$0.00	0.00%
18. HowUnfortunate	16	$1,000,000.00	$0.00	0.00%
19. monitorLizzy	13	$1,000,000.00	$0.00	0.00%
20. dixonge	14	$1,000,000.00	$0.00	0.00%
21. secondcor521	18	$1,000,000.00	$0.00	0.00%
22. MizRosie	12	$1,000,000.00	$0.00	0.00%
23. cfahey27	23	$985,191.17	$8,050.00	-1.48%
24. wrd58	24	$983,163.14	$11,577.00	-1.68%
25. covert1	22	$969,950.18	$-22,633.00	-3.00%
26. RiskyBusinessC2	25	$946,078.22	$-7,527.00	-5.39%
27. natetheb	26	$944,438.23	$-7,254.51	-5.56%
28. NormYoung	27	$936,995.73	$4,724.44	-6.30%
29. lbymfreddie	28	$918,381.22	$-2,324.17	-8.16%
30. sengsational	29	$899,637.65	$7,295.00	-10.04%
31. BohoII	30	$895,396.12	$13,248.00	-10.46%
32. Clone2	31	$893,332.39	$16,878.31	-10.67%
33. cdailey	32	$863,854.42	$11,108.70	-13.61%
34. KCScubaSteve	33	$835,137.73	$1,407.11	-16.49%
35. underwrite	34	$821,110.58	$10,597.50	-17.89%
36. lawrencewendall	35	$792,653.32	$-9,978.65	-20.73%
37. ransil	36	$671,662.29	$7,709.80	-32.83%
38. RISP	37	$661,356.06	$3,774.51	-33.86%

 

[ERD50]

Ouch!

BOHO - nunnun CUML % delta -19.83%
BOHO - nunnun CUML $ delta -$198,267

-ERD50

 

[Boho]

From a Google search I see that the Investopedia "security not trading" problem and other problems has been mentioned by various groups of players for over 10 years. One group of players moved over to https://www.marketwatch.com/game.

Easysurfer: did you look at the marketwatch contest when you were looking for a substitute for Simvest?

 

[easysurfer]

From a Google search I see that the Investopedia "security not trading" problem and other problems has been mentioned by various groups of players for over 10 years. One group of players moved over to https://www.marketwatch.com/game.

Easysurfer: did you look at the marketwatch contest when you were looking for a substitute for Simvest?

Not sure 100%, but I think I looked and at the time marketwatch may have been down.

Sounds like you are thinking of throwing in the towel at Investopedia? Reason I ask is checking the standings, you are currently in 31st place out of 38 (I'm cooking in position #8). I really don't think it's the game causing the standings. Just saying ... .

Does marketwatch look friendly and easy to use? What I do remember is looking at a few that didn't seem good or couldn't get access too, then found Investopeda. If folks are interested in a Beat Boho III contest, I'm open to the idea as I'm almost as passive an investor as nunnun.

 

[Boho]

Sounds like you are thinking of throwing in the towel at Investopedia?

No way. There will be a trade deal that sends industrials soaring. Or not, but either way I don't think the bug affected me much and I'm sure others want to continue. Some players spent significant time trading for the contest and haven't been affected by any bugs and just want to compare their results with the S&P. No reason to lock them out of the contest after all this time. I don't think we should start III until II is done but I'm in if someone does.

Does marketwatch look friendly and easy to use?

I haven't seen it. Just the page I linked to.

 

[easysurfer]

No way. There will be a trade deal that sends industrials soaring. Or not, but either way I don't think the bug affected me much and I'm sure others want to continue. Some players spent significant time trading for the contest and haven't been affected by any bugs and just want to compare their results with the S&P. No reason to lock them out of the contest after all this time. I don't think we should start III until II is done but I'm in if someone does.



I haven't seen it. Just the page I linked to.

Yeah. Agree about not wanting to end this game early. I am open to using another simulator if we find one that works better and there is an interest in a Beat Boho III.

There's still time (over a year) before this contest ends. Perhaps by that time a few folks may have checked out Marketwatch to get a feel if that is worth going to in the future .

Always good to have options as longs as the options aren't too cumbersome.

 

[ERD50]

No way. There will be a trade deal that sends industrials soaring. Or not, ....

Do you really think that the market hasn't already factored "trade deals" into the price of industrials? Or that they have it wrong and you have it right?

If you were any good at all in knowing better than the market what is going to happen, you'd at least be beating nunnun. But you aren't, are you?

-ERD50

 

[Boho]

Do you really think that the market hasn't already factored "trade deals" into the price of industrials? Or that they have it wrong and you have it right?

I feel like the trade issue turned people into swing traders. People believed there will be a trade deal eventually and most experts thought it was a buyers market but people sold anyway, while I turned into an index investor during this period.

 

[sengsational]

Sounds like you are thinking of throwing in the towel at Investopedia?

I'm also lagging in the standings, but that's not the reason I've "had it" with Investopedia. It's because there are bugs that make the results suspect. We know of two cases, kite and fermion, where they're much higher in standings than they should be only because of bugs in the simulator. Fermion's bug is detectable (with effort), but the other bug, where twice the number of equity shares is credited seems harder to detect. I've called attention to these bugs on the feedback channel, but have been ignored. I get it...I mean, they're not making money off of us, so why support us. But I'm much less interested now that it's proven so buggy.



I've got a spreadsheet to audit my own account, and there are two problems. First, there is a mysterious smallish discrepancy (not in my favor). And second I got "stuck" with an issue that quit trading, and there's nothing I can do with it. It was a buyout, so I should have made money on it, but right now, it's just locked-up the funds that I put into that stock. Annoying, but neither is a showstopper. But imagine if you put a large percent of your wad into a stock that quit trading...you'd be out of the game.

 

[easysurfer]

I'm also lagging in the standings, but that's not the reason I've "had it" with Investopedia. It's because there are bugs that make the results suspect. We know of two cases, kite and fermion, where they're much higher in standings than they should be only because of bugs in the simulator. Fermion's bug is detectable (with effort), but the other bug, where twice the number of equity shares is credited seems harder to detect. I've called attention to these bugs on the feedback channel, but have been ignored. I get it...I mean, they're not making money off of us, so why support us. But I'm much less interested now that it's proven so buggy.

....

Your case is well taken. I just like razzing Boho .

If there is interest for a Boho III contest, perhaps some folks would like to use the Marketwatch (or another) contest a bit to make sure no bugs are encountered there. Otherwise, we'd be in a similar situation. ... Just a thought.

Or, if folks prefer to wing it and go by trial and error, that's okay too. Fine by me .

 

[ransil]

I think its just making up numbers now.

 

[Boho]

Your case is well taken. I just like razzing Boho .

If there is interest for a Boho III contest, perhaps some folks would like to use the Marketwatch (or another) contest a bit to make sure no bugs are encountered there. Otherwise, we'd be in a similar situation. ... Just a thought.

Or, if folks prefer to wing it and go by trial and error, that's okay too. Fine by me .

I'll probably make myself part of the exploratory committee and check it out. Then when it's decided it's time I can give a very brief tutorial and the right links if necessary so people don't get turned off by something being confusing. If we wait for questions they may never come and people may just not join.

 

[easysurfer]

I'll probably make myself part of the exploratory committee and check it out. Then when it's decided it's time I can give a very brief tutorial and the right links if necessary so people don't get turned off by something being confusing. If we wait for questions they may never come and people may just not join.

Definitely don't want something confusing or inaccurate. A suggestion might be when exploring, make some trades like the ones having issues on Investopedia to see if those type of trades work properly.

 

[ransil]

I'll probably make myself part of the exploratory committee and check it out. Then when it's decided it's time I can give a very brief tutorial and the right links if necessary so people don't get turned off by something being confusing. If we wait for questions they may never come and people may just not join.

If you set something up, give me a shout ill help test it.

 

[Boho]

I'm still going to check it out.

In other news, I think I'm now closer to nunnun than before I made the switch to industrial index funds. I was starting to wonder whether it would really work but with recent promising news about a trade deal I started gaining much faster than nunnun, so when there's an actual deal I'd expect that to continue with an even bigger jump. It's not seen in my rank though.

 

[Boho]

One year maximum for Marketwatch contests. Fine with me, and there's really no other alternative that I know of because of bugs in the others we've tried. I'm still in the Investopedia contest until it ends but we could set up a Marketwatch contest whenever. We have to decide how to configure it for a test. I didn't start one yet.

 

[Boho]

Since my big industrials buy something like two months ago, my rough estimate is that Nunnun's lead over me decreased at a rate of over 3% per year. I think it's been less than two months so maybe more than 3%. Now's a reasonable time to cash in and get a more neutral portfolio, like nunnun's, and claim this as a successful move. It's also reasonable to wait for after the State of the Union, or to wait for the end of the shut down, or to wait for a deal with China (I lost track on the status of that). With Cohen implicating Trump, I'm getting anxious.

 

[sengsational]

...I'm getting anxious.

When I read your comments on the state of the world and how that might or might not affect your investment actions, I get the feeling it's "first-level thinking". Meaning, it's not unique or different. It's kind of "logical", meaning, the average investor might be thinking the same thing. Meaning, what? Average results?

Most of my readers want to perform better than the average investor. As I've set out in "Dare to Be Great II" (April 2014) and in the discussion of "second level thinking" in my book "The Most Important Thing", to accomplish that, you have to invest differently than the average investor. To do that, you have to think differently than the average investor. And to do that, you have to consider different inputs than the average investor, or consider inputs differently. You simply can't follow the signals their behavior provides.

--Howard Marks - "What Does the Market Know?"

See lots of interesting memos here: https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/howard-marks-memos

 

[Boho]

When I read your comments on the state of the world and how that might or might not affect your investment actions, I get the feeling it's "first-level thinking". Meaning, it's not unique or different. It's kind of "logical", meaning, the average investor might be thinking the same thing. Meaning, what? Average results?


See lots of interesting memos here: https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/howard-marks-memos

The things investors use to select stocks are all things that are reasonable to consider. I use some of those same things but in the end I buy differently than others some of the time. Some people sold during the trade war while I bought. The considerations I mentioned in my previous post are currently making me hold. Other will consider those same things and buy or sell. And I'm not sure how many people put significant weight on the factors in my previous post. Every one of those factors is meaningful enough that I'm not sure what to do, while some people would think the answer is clear. That could mean they're wrong.

 

[braumeister]

my rough estimate is that Nunnun's lead over me decreased at a rate of over 3% per year.

Thank you!
Your creative use of statistics is always a delight to read.

Now's a reasonable time to cash in and get a more neutral portfolio, like nunnun's, and claim this as a successful move.

IIRC, you have claimed that just about everything you've done was a successful move, so by all means carry on!

 

[Boho]

Thank you!
Your creative use of statistics is always a delight to read.

IIRC, you have claimed that just about everything you've done was a successful move, so by all means carry on!

Last I checked, a couple of hours ago, I'm a few thousand less than $160,000 under nunnun. I recall being $160,000 under nunnun a couple of months ago. Someone even pointed that out in a post. You're free to post a corrected estimate.

Yes, with an 89% successful trade rate just about everything I do is successful. I could still be behind with that and I am despite the probability that we performed about the same over the past year. I probably have the edge over nunnun over the last 12 months.

 

[jazz4cash]

Thank you!

Your creative use of statistics is always a delight to read.







IIRC, you have claimed that just about everything you've done was a successful move, so by all means carry on!

Boho is The Black Knight!

https://www.google.com/search?q=mon...7JkuHilELo0GKS4uRBcnl1MbGGZKan5xQBLmUYlXAAAAA

 

[ERD50]

Originally Posted by Boho ...I'm getting anxious.

When I read your comments on the state of the world and how that might or might not affect your investment actions, I get the feeling it's "first-level thinking". Meaning, it's not unique or different. It's kind of "logical", meaning, the average investor might be thinking the same thing. Meaning, what? Average results? ...

And yet, Boho has had below average results! How's he do it?

Thank you!
Your creative use of statistics is always a delight to read.

IIRC, you have claimed that just about everything you've done was a successful move, so by all means carry on!

....
Yes, with an 89% successful trade rate just about everything I do is successful. I could still be behind with that and I am ...

Yes. You are behind! What does that tell you about an 89% success rate? That hedge fund guy that sunk his clients, and made them negative had a very, very high success rate, because that's how he played it. But when it goes against you, it goes BIG. These sorts of things mean nothing w/o also assigning a risk/reward to them.

.... I probably have the edge over nunnun over the last 12 months.

"Probably"? I'm not surprised you think so. I guess you are not a 'numbers' guy, are you? That's not good for an investor. Maybe that says something.

The answer is right here in the spreadsheet I shared with you, I added formulas for 12 Months, previously only had 6 month. NEWS FLASH - Boho is DOWN relative to nunnun, for the past 12 months. Anyone (other than Boho) surprised?

Boho nunnun
12 M 12 M

-9.89% -4.68%



6 Month is even worse - so much for a positive trend...

Boho nunnun
6 M 6 M

-14.49% -7.96%



Boho - hint: REALITY!!!!! Try it sometime!


-ERD50