Stock Picking (Beat Boho) Contest - V2.0

On Thursday I read one analyst say that Biogen (BIIB) is now just an ordinary value stock due to the failure of their Alzheimer's drug. In the same article someone said he expects it to drop 20%, so when I saw it down around 26% I bought it (for $227.99). It dropped a little more that day but on Friday it started out up and got as high as $226.80. It's at $217.07 now. It sounds like they have to make some kind of move now and I expect any plan that they announce to be good news so I think it will work out at the price I paid.

With BA...um...my Buy to Cover price was met at some point and BA is still low enough but the Buy to Cover order disappeared so I still have to Buy to Cover. Hopefully Monday.

I bought CME for $175.98 and it's down to $163.32. I attempted to buy that one using my typical "method", unlike with BA and BIIB for which I used my second or third choice method, but I was a little out of practice and I'm not sure I would have bought it when I was in the zone. I did some further research after the buy and it seems OK I guess. I went on their website to get more detail on the info that I saw in the news that Fidelity gave me before I bought (about a lowering of some expectation in the company's guidance) but I couldn't find anything recent. I didn't dig deeper to see what's going on but I'm holding it for now.
 
'Someone said'? Your 'method'? The 'zone'? Aren't you getting tired of trolling us? Not even ERD50 is replying to you anymore.
 
RISP said:
'Someone said'? Your 'method'? The 'zone'? Aren't you getting tired of trolling us? Not even ERD50 is replying to you anymore.
Click to expand...

"Someone said" in an article, and I don't read crap. They wouldn't quote a guy who doesn't know anything. He estimated what the stock is worth now. That matters. And I'm ahead with BA anyway. Don't try to spin my wins into something negative.

It turns out I didn't have enough money to cover BA so I guess the trade failed but it's not listed under failed trades. I'm selling $100,000 of a fund so I can Buy to Cover BA. If BA stays low enough. Unfortunately the fund and BA are both up today.
 
Don't change a thing in your investing approach, Boho. Your entertainment value is still high.
 
BA is up over 1% and I'm still ahead with my short.
 
But since the market is down I didn't sell enough of the fund to buy BA so I'm selling some more...
 
Recap of recent history with all the winning going on:

Boho said:
Current RankPrevious Day's RankAccount Value (USD)Today's Change in ValueOverall%
8. nunnun8$1,219,490.84($2,620.80)21.95%
9. BohoII9$1,131,384.07($2,820.63)13.14%
33. secondcor52124$1,000,000.00$0.000.00%
Click to expand...

Boho said:
"Someone said" in an article, and I don't read crap. They wouldn't quote a guy who doesn't know anything. He estimated what the stock is worth now. That matters. And I'm ahead with BA anyway. Don't try to spin my wins into something negative.
Click to expand...

Today's rankings (which I am failing at formatting for some reason):

Current Rank Account Value (USD) Overall%
7. nunnun $1,220,802.96 22.08%
14. BohoII $1,113,549.93 11.35%
23. secondcor521 $1,000,000.00 0.00%

 
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I'm holding two stocks that I recently bought during a dramatic drop. Hopefully it will turn out the same as when I bought the market on maximum margin (I dropped dramatically in rank before recovering). I made about $6000 with the BA trade though.
 
Current RankPrevious day's rankAccount Value (USD)Today's change in valueOverall%
1. Spudd1$2,098,795.11$8,240.00109.88%
2. comsecga2$1,717,470.01$20,211.2071.75%
3. kite_rider4$1,670,924.94$24,980.0067.09%
4. Fermion3$1,641,755.02($4,231.50)64.18%
5. covert16$1,338,929.74$17,920.0033.89%
6. exnavynuke5$1,335,475.14$13,125.0033.55%
7. nunnun7$1,232,649.60$7,745.2823.26%
8. Totoro_ERF8$1,200,082.61$6,280.0020.01%
9. cfahey279$1,180,491.17$14,901.5018.05%
10. DieWurst10$1,153,555.23$8,566.1015.36%
11. BohoII11$1,142,086.44$9,728.8214.21%
12. Fermion112$1,138,629.67$6,930.0013.86%
13. cdailey14$1,124,865.92$13,512.3012.49%
14. nvestysly13$1,121,927.73$4,745.8512.19%
15. wrd5815$1,112,279.14$4,849.0011.23%
16. wmc100016$1,100,474.36$6,624.0510.05%
17. easysurfer17$1,096,598.91$4,082.669.66%
18. NormYoung18$1,091,073.47$7,786.849.11%
19. natetheb20$1,026,892.04$12,907.422.69%
20. lbymfreddie19$1,012,172.26($46,936.71)1.22%
21. RiskyBusinessC221$1,005,478.22($4,800.00)0.55%
22. t3ztam3nt22$1,001,395.51($8.00)0.14%
23. secondcor52124$1,000,000.00$0.000.00%
24. consvgmbl32$1,000,000.00$0.000.00%
25. dixonge25$1,000,000.00$0.000.00%
26. luckyclub23$1,000,000.00$0.000.00%
27. monitorLizzy26$1,000,000.00$0.000.00%
28. Gayl27$1,000,000.00$0.000.00%
29. HowUnfortunate28$1,000,000.00$0.000.00%
30. MizRosie29$1,000,000.00$0.000.00%
31. garyweis30$1,000,000.00$0.000.00%
32. longshot345kv31$1,000,000.00$0.000.00%
33. Clone234$953,673.56$15,459.92-4.63%
34. sengsational33$942,684.25$3,173.70-5.73%
35. ransil35$933,717.96$13,983.00-6.63%
36. KCScubaSteve36$918,370.07$7,263.78-8.16%
37. underwrite37$905,334.58$5,003.00-9.47%
38. lawrencewendall38$891,082.64($1,156.28)-10.89%
39. RISP39$768,517.97$8,475.20-23.15%
 
I don't remember when the game ends but I'm setting a price target of my account value at $1,190,000. That's just what I think I'll reach at some point before the game's end. It accounts for CME which I'm waiting to gain more than the $11,857.50 that I lost on it so far, and an arbitrary boost from a trade deal. It should happen within two months. Then some less drastic gains from my trading could put me above nunnun. I'll have to look up when the game ends at some point.
 
- contest ends March 29, 2020


And I'm not even playing!

So your crystal ball says you will gain a whopping 4% over the next year? Is that the same crystal ball that has you lagging the market? And that number is still behind where the market is today (and yes, the market could drop over the next year, it happens).

Just how do you go about developing such a prediction? I have no idea where the market will be in a year, yet, if I were playing I'd be using nunnun's approach, and be beating you.

I'd bet that your sense that you actually can predict these these is exactly why you are not beating the market.

-ERD50
 
ERD50 said:
- contest ends March 29, 2020


And I'm not even playing!

So your crystal ball says you will gain a whopping 4% over the next year? Is that the same crystal ball that has you lagging the market? And that number is still behind where the market is today (and yes, the market could drop over the next year, it happens).

Just how do you go about developing such a prediction? I have no idea where the market will be in a year, yet, if I were playing I'd be using nunnun's approach, and be beating you.

I'd bet that your sense that you actually can predict these these is exactly why you are not beating the market.

-ERD50
Click to expand...

It's actually a two month price target. And I'm at $1,160,177.19 now. Nunnun has $1,246,638.64.
 
For a minute I thought the US was under attack or something. A bug made it look like nunnun dropped to $1,036,896.44.
 

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$1,190,000 is now my 30 minute price target.
 
Almost bought Finland but I couldn't get enough due to the volume restrictions so I skipped it.
 
I can't find a pattern for who disappeared. It affected some players who never traded, but not all so it can't be a purge of inactive players. Both Fermions were booted but I doubt it's a purge of players with two accounts because those who never traded probably wouldn't have two accounts. Can't be the first or last players who joined. I think I own the top several most popular index funds and I didn't disappear so I don't think it's due to a particular thing people own. And nunnun didn't own anything weird that could have done it.

It could be that one of Investopedia's servers went down and we have to wait for it to come back.
 
ransil said:
Might be no trades in a period of time
Click to expand...


I'd bet that's it (I can't see the list, I'm not in the game since I would just duplicate nunnun). Nunnun has not traded, a pure B&H strategy.

The good news is, we can easily replicate their performance by looking at the market.

-ERD50
 
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