Join Early Retirement Today
Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
Old 12-16-2018, 01:27 PM   #1061
Full time employment: Posting here.
Boho's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2017
Posts: 891
It's not the number of contests, it's the time involved that counts for experience.

So, you want to ignore my stock picking success rate AND how good I've been this past year. Fine, just don't expect to convince me of my lack of skill.

As for whether it's been a "no news" weekend, I don't think it has, with headlines like "Schumer: Trump's 'temper tantrum' over wall funding is leading to shutdown" and "White House prepares for shutdown as both sides dig in over Trump’s wall" so you could add that to my excuses/trade ratio.
__________________

Boho is offline   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Old 12-17-2018, 12:01 PM   #1062
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
easysurfer's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2008
Posts: 9,558
Quote:
Originally Posted by imp4 View Post
I think it was Boho's hubris that started this whole silly thing.....

Yep.

This contest got started as rather than reading Boho's posts, self exclaiming how he has a special stock picking skill, how does that go?, "Put up or ... " .
__________________

__________________
Have you ever seen a headstone with these words
"If only I had spent more time at work" ... from "Busy Man" sung by Billy Ray Cyrus
easysurfer is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-17-2018, 01:04 PM   #1063
Full time employment: Posting here.
Boho's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2017
Posts: 891
I don't think I even made any claims about my ability before the first contest started, aside maybe for what I've actually achieved in real life and my public predictions on this forum that turned out to be correct. I think I was saying maybe stock picking could work and people interpreted it as something more.
Boho is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-17-2018, 01:15 PM   #1064
Dryer sheet aficionado
 
Join Date: Oct 2018
Posts: 31
Quote:
Originally Posted by Boho View Post
I don't think I even made any claims about my ability before the first contest started, aside maybe for what I've actually achieved in real life and my public predictions on this forum that turned out to be correct. I think I was saying maybe stock picking could work and people interpreted it as something more.





This is what we are convinced you are trying to do:


Quote:
Originally Posted by Boho View Post
For me it's about how well I do compared to a real world benchmark. If everyone looks at each other's trades and trades in weird ways, that just means that I won't care what their results are. As long I know I'm better than one of those index funds. And the more better, the better.

Currently, you are NOT performing better than the said "index funds", yet you keep saying you are....
natetheb is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-17-2018, 01:25 PM   #1065
Full time employment: Posting here.
Boho's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2017
Posts: 891
Quote:
Originally Posted by natetheb View Post

Currently, you are NOT performing better than the said "index funds", yet you keep saying you are....
How could I even say I am if I'm not. I speak the truth. I just said like two days ago that I'm behind.
Boho is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-18-2018, 06:30 AM   #1066
Dryer sheet aficionado
 
Join Date: Oct 2018
Posts: 31
Quote:
Originally Posted by Boho View Post
How could I even say I am if I'm not. I speak the truth. I just said like two days ago that I'm behind.

Oh, like this little nugget?!



Quote:
Originally Posted by Boho View Post
My skills transcend math. In the contest I try to buy about $200,000 - $300,000 of each of my stocks by adjusting the maximum down a bit. I'm often off since the max depends on volume and I'm lazy with the math but I'm still gaining ground.



People who time the market like myself think they know when cash is good, and we need cash for trading, but I actually changed my trading because of what I heard about cash being a drag. I try to stay more invested than I used to. That's one of the reason's I bought an index fund in this contest a few times and why I was intending to hold an international fund for a decent amount of time (I changed plans about the latter).
natetheb is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-18-2018, 08:35 AM   #1067
Full time employment: Posting here.
Boho's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2017
Posts: 891
Quote:
Originally Posted by natetheb View Post
Oh, like this little nugget?!
It's well documented that I could make numbers bend from the shear force of my talent. Look it up.
Boho is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-18-2018, 08:47 AM   #1068
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
REWahoo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Texas Hill Country
Posts: 45,230
Quote:
Originally Posted by Boho View Post
...the shear force of my talent. Look it up.
Look up "shear".
__________________
Numbers is hard

Charter resident of the lumpen slums of cyberspace

Retired in 2005 at age 58, no pension
REWahoo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-18-2018, 08:51 AM   #1069
Full time employment: Posting here.
Boho's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2017
Posts: 891
It bends letters too. I can't help it.
Boho is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-18-2018, 09:12 AM   #1070
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Northern IL
Posts: 21,247
Quote:
Originally Posted by Boho View Post
It's well documented that I could make numbers bend from the shear force of my talent. Look it up.
I believe it!

Now, if you could only learn to make them bend in the right direction!

-ERD50
ERD50 is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 12-18-2018, 01:23 PM   #1071
Recycles dryer sheets
kite_rider's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2013
Posts: 126
This has been an interesting game so far. I thought I might get some insight into the other player's stock picking and market strategy thought process; but instead I'm getting the feeling that many on this forum (maybe most?) don't pick stocks or have a market strategy. If there is a 'market strategy' these folks follow, it's to buy the index and forget about it.

Am I wrong about this?

To me, the idea that an intelligent investor can do no better than the market average is like telling a bright high school student that it's pointless to try to achieve better than the average GPA because, on average, each student will just achieve the average.

I know there are many studies out there showing that the pros don't do better than the average and there is the famous bet Warren Buffet made using indexes against a fund manager. ERD50, you've made a strong case here and I'm sure you'll cite more examples.

That being said, I would think many on the Early Retirement Forum are here because of better than average stock picking and market strategy. Are we all just super frugal savers and not awesome investors?
kite_rider is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-18-2018, 01:51 PM   #1072
Full time employment: Posting here.
Boho's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2017
Posts: 891
Is there a thread yet about the guy who recently said people shouldn't invest passively because too much of that is messing up the market? I haven't read much about the consequences of everyone being passive.
Boho is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-18-2018, 03:32 PM   #1073
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Northern IL
Posts: 21,247
Quote:
Originally Posted by kite_rider View Post
This has been an interesting game so far. I thought I might get some insight into the other player's stock picking and market strategy thought process; but instead I'm getting the feeling that many on this forum (maybe most?) don't pick stocks or have a market strategy. If there is a 'market strategy' these folks follow, it's to buy the index and forget about it.

Am I wrong about this? ...
I think it is generally true. There are always exceptions, and there is a 'stock pickers' thread. I try to stay out, because I'll just end up telling them they are playing the wrong game, but that is their game, so I try to refrain. There's also a subset that believe dividend paying stocks have some magic, but I have yet to see the numbers back that up.


Quote:
Originally Posted by kite_rider View Post
... To me, the idea that an intelligent investor can do no better than the market average is like telling a bright high school student that it's pointless to try to achieve better than the average GPA because, on average, each student will just achieve the average. ....
It seems perfectly reasonable that a pro will do better - that is our experience in most things. But when you dig in a bit, you realize that beating the market involves predicting the future, which is a skill set no one seems to have. It isn't good enough to identify 'good' stocks, or 'good stocks to buy', because all the pros are trying to do that. So you'd have to out-pick the pros. But wait, studies show that most pros can't do it reliably!

Quote:
Originally Posted by kite_rider View Post
... That being said, I would think many on the Early Retirement Forum are here because of better than average stock picking and market strategy. Are we all just super frugal savers and not awesome investors?
Many of us are awesome investors! We keep our money working in broad-based index funds. No sector selecting, no timing, just boring 'buy the market' and hold on.

Now there are a few (a very few, a 'handful'?) that claim to be able to stock pick and/or time the market successfully. Maybe they can, who knows? The only way we could tell is to audit them over a 10 year period or so, and that's not going to happen. Only a couple are in this contest. But this contest is too short to tell us much.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Boho View Post
Is there a thread yet about the guy who recently said people shouldn't invest passively because too much of that is messing up the market? I haven't read much about the consequences of everyone being passive.
There have been a few threads on that. I never did look into it much. My gut says if passive got to the point of affecting the market, there would be opportunities for someone, or some computer. That would create more active investing, and that would be eating up the opportunities, until there were no opportunities, and active investing would dry up again. It would be self-correcting. Too many eyes and computers on the market to miss something. And they will spot it before you and I do - maybe they already did?

There's some AI fund now, heard it wasn't doing so well.

-ERD50
ERD50 is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 12-19-2018, 01:17 PM   #1074
Recycles dryer sheets
kite_rider's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2013
Posts: 126
Quote:
Originally Posted by ERD50 View Post
Now there are a few (a very few, a 'handful'?) that claim to be able to stock pick and/or time the market successfully. Maybe they can, who knows? The only way we could tell is to audit them over a 10 year period or so, and that's not going to happen. Only a couple are in this contest. But this contest is too short to tell us much.
-ERD50
Who knows? I think I do! How about Warren Buffett, Benjamin Graham, Peter Lynch, John Templeton, John Bogle, ....? I could go on.. There are plenty of great stock pickers out there that actually beat the market over very long periods of time.

I think people get wild speculation schemes mixed up sound investment strategies. The legends out there didn't get famous by buying indexes and holding. Yes, I know you will say that some of the famous investors I've quoted above actually advise the 'average investor' to buy and hold the indexes (Bogle in particular). But hey, games like this one can test you to see if you can beat the average!
kite_rider is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-19-2018, 01:37 PM   #1075
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Northern IL
Posts: 21,247
Quote:
Originally Posted by kite_rider View Post
Who knows? I think I do! How about Warren Buffett, Benjamin Graham, Peter Lynch, John Templeton, John Bogle, ....? I could go on.. There are plenty of great stock pickers out there that actually beat the market over very long periods of time.

I think people get wild speculation schemes mixed up sound investment strategies. The legends out there didn't get famous by buying indexes and holding. Yes, I know you will say that some of the famous investors I've quoted above actually advise the 'average investor' to buy and hold the indexes (Bogle in particular). But hey, games like this one can test you to see if you can beat the average!
Yes, but wasn't Buffet actively involved in some of those companies? And didn't Lynch hang it up while he was winning (smart - go out on a high note)? And in Bogle Buffet's recent bet with a hedge fund manager, he went B&H index - if he was so confident in his abilities, why didn't he go active?

And, unfortunately, we can't rule out survivor bias - you won't find too many lists of the losers. If these winners are 'proof', do the losers disprove anything?

And of course, I would never say that no one can do it. I fully expect that some will, and have done it. But how can we ever know if it is skill? There are a lot of stock picking monkeys plunking away at typewriters, there will be extreme winners/losers on the Z-tails of the distribution.

So the thought process is fun, but when it comes to my money, I get pragmatic real quick. What is actionable? How would I really go about beating the market? I'd want to see a system with a proven track record and enough logic to it to convince me it could persist.

If you have that system and documentation, please PM me. If we let everyone know, it won't work! And don't tell Boho!

-ERD50
ERD50 is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 12-20-2018, 08:42 AM   #1076
Dryer sheet aficionado
 
Join Date: Oct 2018
Posts: 31
I think I might know the cause of the Game Bug that is causing folks to see multiple trades. Today, I purchased an additional 63 shares of AGNC with the dividends I had sitting in my account. Well that trade got executed three times by borrowing cash (which I didn't want). I believe the cause of this was I edited the order twice by using the "Change Order" button. The "Preview Order" button was selected three times, so I would guess there is some sort of memory buffer issue with the "Preview Order", especially when coupled with a "Purchase at market open" type order.




EDIT: The three trade confirmation emails I received seem to indicate I might be on the right thought process....
natetheb is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-20-2018, 11:35 AM   #1077
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
SecondCor521's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Boise
Posts: 3,487
Quote:
Originally Posted by Boho View Post
This is the first time in the contest when I'm all in. Can't buy any more even on margin. I tried. I think "buying power" isn't up to date.

Two minutes before you posted the above (12:25 EST), the S&P stood at 2654.89.

About a minute ago, the S&P stood at 2467.13.

I guess the market doesn't work the same as Rock Paper Scissors.

Data from Yahoo.

ETA: It occurred to me that your industrial play might have done better than the index. Nope. You're in 29th, nunnun is in 5th.
__________________
"At times the world can seem an unfriendly and sinister place, but believe us when we say there is much more good in it than bad. All you have to do is look hard enough, and what might seem to be a series of unfortunate events, may in fact be the first steps of a journey." Violet Baudelaire.
SecondCor521 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-20-2018, 11:54 AM   #1078
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
easysurfer's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2008
Posts: 9,558
Quote:
Originally Posted by SecondCor521 View Post
Two minutes before you posted the above (12:25 EST), the S&P stood at 2654.89.

About a minute ago, the S&P stood at 2467.13.

I guess the market doesn't work the same as Rock Paper Scissors.

Data from Yahoo.

ETA: It occurred to me that your industrial play might have done better than the index. Nope. You're in 29th, nunnun is in 5th.

Translation ... Boho is getting trounced by nunnun even while the index is in correction territory .
__________________
Have you ever seen a headstone with these words
"If only I had spent more time at work" ... from "Busy Man" sung by Billy Ray Cyrus
easysurfer is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-20-2018, 11:59 AM   #1079
Full time employment: Posting here.
Boho's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2017
Posts: 891
Quote:
Originally Posted by SecondCor521 View Post
ETA: It occurred to me that your industrial play might have done better than the index. Nope. You're in 29th, nunnun is in 5th.
Yeah, but looking at the results every day it's difficult to see what will ultimately happen because I'm often up more than nunnun on a good day (or good midday) and down less on a bad day. But overall, I guess it's the other way around. We still have to wait until the trade talks with china are over. That's what I bet on with the industrials.
Boho is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-20-2018, 12:04 PM   #1080
Full time employment: Posting here.
Boho's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2017
Posts: 891
I heard Jim Cramer a day or two ago saying we have to be ready for more China tariffs because of all the bad things China is saying. That's good news for me if I'm right. It increases the chances that investors are betting on bad results while I'm betting on good ones. It lowers the chances that the market is valued properly, if I'm correct.
__________________

Boho is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Stock Picking ("Beat Boho") Contest easysurfer Stock Picking and Market Strategy 235 04-20-2017 10:06 AM
Ohio waitress wins CNBC stock picking contest cute fuzzy bunny Stock Picking and Market Strategy 21 07-20-2007 10:22 PM
Stock Market Contest 2005 Danny Other topics 103 12-31-2005 02:50 PM

» Quick Links

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 06:45 AM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2019, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.