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Old 07-04-2019, 09:43 AM   #1361
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With more divs coming in Sept and Dec. Tick-Tock-Tick-Tock.

-ERD50
I'm hoping to start buying by late summer. If the market doesn't drop enough by then and there's a trade deal, that would be a problem for me.
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Old 07-04-2019, 03:49 PM   #1362
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I gave examples where it just does not happen, not even a dip at all. It would be interesting to see how many times/% a new high did not experience a 2.6% follow-up dip. Have you analyzed this? Seems you should have some idea of the odds before going all in.
I didn't sell and short because of a random high in the market. I sold and shorted because traders were overly optimistic on a certain issue and bought on that, which means I had reason to believe the market was over bought. It happened to be at the same time people thought the market was over valued and a correction was coming and there was tension with Iran and North Korea and it was months into tariffs that were feared to have an effect even months earlier, and a bad economy and a possible impeachment.
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Old 07-04-2019, 04:07 PM   #1363
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I didn't sell and short because of a random high in the market. I sold and shorted because traders were overly optimistic on a certain issue and bought on that, which means I had reason to believe the market was over bought. It happened to be at the same time people thought the market was over valued and a correction was coming and there was tension with Iran and North Korea and it was months into tariffs that were feared to have an effect even months earlier, and a bad economy and a possible impeachment.
Sounds random to me.

There's always a litany of potential pitfalls in the market. What's the expression, "the market climbs a wall of worry"? All those things are known, they are priced into the market to some degree.

Are you doing this with your own money too?

-ERD50
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Old 07-04-2019, 08:09 PM   #1364
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Are you doing this with your own money too?
No, but if I was trading with my own money I might make the same trades with a lower percentage of my money than I'm using in the contest. So I don't think I'd have all cash now.
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Old 07-06-2019, 08:23 AM   #1365
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I just saw:

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503 Service Unavailable

The Stock Simulator is currently offline while we perform necessary backend updates.We apologize for any inconvenience and will have it back online as soon as possible.
Hopefully they're fixing things.
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Old 07-08-2019, 12:29 PM   #1366
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Third day with service unavailable. This isn't how normal updates work. There must be a serious problem.
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Old 07-08-2019, 12:37 PM   #1367
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Third day with service unavailable. This isn't how normal updates work. There must be a serious problem.
1st trading day though. Have you contacted them?

-ERD50
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Old 07-08-2019, 05:18 PM   #1368
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1st trading day though. Have you contacted them?

-ERD50
Nope. They're not good at responding and they probably don't know when.
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Old 07-11-2019, 05:43 PM   #1369
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A health care stock or ETF was my choice of a defensive stock pick not long ago. It would have been nice if I kept it but at least I sold it for a profit. I can't say which stock it was because the game is still down and I forgot. I actually had two. One I bought on some specific company event and the other was for defense.

Now I'm waiting for any non-health care earnings report. I already knew health care could turn out good. I need bad news. And a working simulator.
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Old 07-12-2019, 11:23 AM   #1370
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The game is back. My pending trades are still there. Here's the ranking:

Current RankPrevious day's rankAccount Value (USD)Today's change in valueOverall%
1. kite_rider1$2,351,074.96 $0.00 135.11%
2. Spudd2$2,225,442.21 $0.00 122.54%
3. comsecga3$2,067,990.01 $0.00 106.80%
4. cfahey274$1,229,615.67 $0.00 22.96%
5. DieWurst5$1,203,958.51 $0.00 20.40%
6. wrd586$1,175,034.14 $0.00 17.50%
7. BohoII7$1,168,090.00 $0.00 16.81%
8. lbymfreddie8$1,160,301.72 $0.00 16.03%
9. wmc10009$1,152,139.22 $0.00 15.21%
10. nvestysly10$1,134,409.27 $14.18 13.44%
11. easysurfer11$1,133,838.03 $0.00 13.38%
12. covert112$1,075,169.74 $0.00 7.52%
13. RiskyBusinessC213$1,044,478.22 $0.00 4.45%
14. t3ztam3nt14$1,002,849.51 $0.00 0.28%
15. guestperson15$1,002,000.01 $0.00 0.20%
16. monitorLizzy16$1,000,000.00 $0.00 0.00%
17. jmil0717$1,000,000.00 $0.00 0.00%
18. consvgmbl18$1,000,000.00 $0.00 0.00%
19. dixonge19$1,000,000.00 $0.00 0.00%
20. exnavynuke20$1,000,000.00 $0.00 0.00%
21. secondcor52121$1,000,000.00 $0.00 0.00%
22. natetheb22$994,538.83 $0.00 -0.55%
23. underwrite23$905,652.08 $0.00 -9.43%
24. sengsational24$900,408.90 $0.00 -9.96%
25. KCScubaSteve25$881,722.85 $0.00 -11.83%
26. ransil26$881,214.58 $0.00 -11.88%
27. lawrencewendall27$819,829.48 $0.00 -18.02%
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Old 07-12-2019, 09:11 PM   #1371
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The game is back. My pending trades are still there. Here's the ranking:

Current RankPrevious day's rankAccount Value (USD)Today's change in valueOverall%
7. BohoII7$1,168,090.00 $0.00 16.81%
Per my calculations, that puts the B&H proxy @:

(1296706)⋅300.65/293 = (1296706 ⋅ 300.65) ∕ 293

≈ $1,330,562 versus your $1,168,090

You have a lot of catching up to do.

-ERD50
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Old 07-14-2019, 12:52 AM   #1372
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A couple percentage points from bad earnings, a couple more from no trade deal, and a couple more from more bad earnings is conceivable. At some point within that my four trades would execute and I'd be in good shape.
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Old 07-14-2019, 07:59 AM   #1373
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A couple percentage points from bad earnings, a couple more from no trade deal, and a couple more from more bad earnings is conceivable. ...
No question that it is conceivable. I would not be surprised at all to see that kind of a drop from here. But I'm not going to bet on it, especially with w/o a hedge/protection in place

And you need more than "a couple" percentage points. Your BTC is ~ 3.2% ~ 3.3% below Friday's close.

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... At some point within that my four trades would execute and I'd be in good shape.
That point is ~ 3.3%. It might come, it might not. You really should try downloading a decade worth of daily closings for SPY, it would be pretty easy to create a spreadsheet that marks all-time highs that never saw a 3% drop from that high. Just copy/paste a bunch of conditional min/max tests looking forward and backward, with one absolute ref to the bottom/top of the list, one relative ref to that day. I might do it myself out of curiosity, but you're the one placing the bet, you really should be the one doing the homework.

That could be very enlightening. And even if it indicated it was a good bet on average, I sure would not put all my chips on a single bet on it.

Plan B? With a short, you better have an exit plan, or your broker might provide one for you (margin call).

-ERD50
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Old Today, 12:12 PM   #1374
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....

That point is ~ 3.3%. It might come, it might not. You really should try downloading a decade worth of daily closings for SPY, it would be pretty easy to create a spreadsheet that marks all-time highs that never saw a 3% drop from that high. Just copy/paste a bunch of conditional min/max tests looking forward and backward, with one absolute ref to the bottom/top of the list, one relative ref to that day. I might do it myself out of curiosity, but you're the one placing the bet, you really should be the one doing the homework.

That could be very enlightening. And even if it indicated it was a good bet on average, I sure would not put all my chips on a single bet on it. ...
I started on this and it wasn't as easy as I thought. Looks like you need some 'memory' in the calculations so that once you go short, you cover only on the first dip. I'll look more later, it seems I should be able to add another column for that, but so far I keep seeming to need a variable to track it, it's kind of a toggle function. I have not used macros in ages, but might try that as a learning process. Or code it in Python.

Or maybe (OK, probably) just take a nap.

-ERD50
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