Stock Picking (Beat Boho) Contest - V2.0

[ERD50]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Boho I don't get specific about that but there's a lot of decision making and only part of my method is easily explained. I thought I read a theory that stock picking ability is genetic but all I found in a search is something about genetic algorithms. I think you need to be a good decision maker. It's hard to teach.

Or maybe it was "geriatric", and only old people can pick stocks, or maybe I read something else, sometime, somewhere, by somebody?

IOW, it's all a bunch of hooey. As demonstrated by your random performance.

-ERD50

[Boho]

Another successful day trade:

edit: I just bought EHTH and MSGN

[pb4uski]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Boho I'm talking about the last 1-1/2 years. Someone did an end-of-second-year comparison between me and the S&P for the previous 12 months (which I think was a bit less than 12 months), and I was a bit behind, and like a month later I had outperformed the index over the previous year.

Yeah... keep doing comparisons until you find a period that you win, then boisterously declare victory.... then you may have a career in marketing for a managed mutual fund.

[ERD50]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Boho Another successful day trade:

Successful?

You made 0.39% on that trade, note the ZERO-dot, and I rounded up to be generous.

269105.01 ∕ 268064.99≈ 1.0038797

Meantime, while I was out, and nunnun was probably napping, SPY was up...waiting for the close.... OK, 0.80%, a more than double your 'successful' trade.

You can call it successful if it makes you feel better, but it isn't going to help you win the contest against a do-nothing buy-and-hold robot, (or doorstop, after all it does not need to do anything). Looks like that trade put you further behind?

-ERD50

[Boho]

Quote:

Originally Posted by ERD50 Looks like that trade put you further behind?

More than half of it was on margin. Any gain from margin is gravy and my core was the S&P. Also, I bought it yesterday and the market was down then. Anyway, I updated my last post with my latest two trades.

[ERD50]

Margin works both ways. So what we can expect is even higher volatility. Could be positive, could be negative.

You have had some very bad months in the past. If you repeat one of those, on margin, well....

-ERD50

[Boho]

Quote:

Originally Posted by ERD50 Or maybe it was "geriatric", and only old people can pick stocks, or maybe I read something else, sometime, somewhere, by somebody? IOW, it's all a bunch of hooey. As demonstrated by your random performance. -ERD50

I think I found it.

A Combination of Dopamine Genes Predicts Success by Professional Wall Street Traders

Quote:

What determines success on Wall Street? This study examined if genes affecting dopamine levels of professional traders were associated with their career tenure. Sixty professional Wall Street traders were genotyped and compared to a control group who did not trade stocks. [blah, blah, blah] This evidence suggests there may be a genetic basis for the traits that make one a successful trader.

I did 23andme. I should check.

[SecondCor521]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Boho I think I found it. A Combination of Dopamine Genes Predicts Success by Professional Wall Street Traders I did 23andme. I should check.

From the article:

"It is difficult to gauge an individual trader's success based on portfolio performance because returns depend on overall activity in the stock market, growth of the economy, as well as the quality of their company's research. We therefore used years working as a measure of success as a trader since low performing traders are routinely laid off and typically move into different professions."

Emphasis added. Quite ironic that you found an NIH article where the authors boho'ed their research.

[ERD50]

Quote:

Originally Posted by SecondCor521 From the article: "It is difficult to gauge an individual trader's success based on portfolio performance because returns depend on overall activity in the stock market, growth of the economy, as well as the quality of their company's research. We therefore used years working as a measure of success as a trader since low performing traders are routinely laid off and typically move into different professions." Emphasis added. Quite ironic that you found an NIH article where the authors boho'ed their research.

Very good!

Yes, before I read your response, I noticed that even within Boho's post, the excerpt was "examined if genes affecting dopamine levels of professional traders were associated with their career tenure". Hmmm, why not portfolio performance versus a benchmark, like, you know, a Total Market fund?

How long was Madoff's career tenure? Let's see, wiki says (Holy Cow!):
"Madoff founded Bernard L. Madoff Investment Securities LLC in 1960, and was its chairman until his arrest (December 11, 2008)...".

48 years! I guess that makes him an exceptional stock picker! So good, he had to turn to a Ponzi scheme. Oh, boy.

Ponzi, a mere 13 years. A piker.

Maybe Boho does share that gene? Maybe someday, "Ponzi", "Madoff" and "Boho" will all be used as synonyms for shady investments? Will we need to wait 13 to 40 years?

-ERD50

[Boho]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Boho I just bought EHTH and MSGN

EHTH worked out well. I'm trying to sell MSGN now at a profit but I can only sell 1/4 of it because of volume restrictions. I'm selling it at market. I bought more yesterday and now I have 30000 shares.

[ERD50]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Boho I think I found it. A Combination of Dopamine Genes Predicts Success by Professional Wall Street Traders I did 23andme. I should check.

I wonder if 23andme will show a gene for Rock, Paper, Scissors ability?

Quote:

Originally Posted by Boho EHTH worked out well. I'm trying to sell MSGN now at a profit but I can only sell 1/4 of it because of volume restrictions. I'm selling it at market. I bought more yesterday and now I have 30000 shares.

So let's see how you do at our monthly update, one week from now. "good trades" don't mean much, you need to do good on average. So far, you are not. You had some bad trades, too.

-ERD50

[Boho]

So I bought MSGN with two trades but it took two trades just to sell half, then the price dropped and I stopped selling so I'm stuck with it for now.

[ERD50]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Boho So I bought MSGN with two trades but it took two trades just to sell half, then the price dropped and I stopped selling so I'm stuck with it for now.

Did you manage to sell the other half?

MSGN up ~ $2 (14%) today on share buyback news.

If you did hang on to some, it will help close the gap with our benchmark. But obviously, it had nothing to do with skill, since you intended to sell it all before this rise.

-ERD50

[Boho]

Quote:

Originally Posted by ERD50 Did you manage to sell the other half? MSGN up ~ $2 (14%) today on share buyback news. If you did hang on to some, it will help close the gap with our benchmark. But obviously, it had nothing to do with skill, since you intended to sell it all before this rise. -ERD50

Yes. Here are my trades for August:

[ransil]

I have been getting a 500 error when i try to get into my portfolio, i can get into everyone elses portfoil, just mot mine.

[Boho]

Quote:

Originally Posted by ransil I have been getting a 500 error when i try to get into my portfolio, i can get into everyone elses portfoil, just mot mine.

I get the same for your portfolio.

[bolt]

Last price 8/29th/19. --Laborday3dayweekend.
AMD
TEVA

All will be buy & holds.
I'll simply record data and assimilate it at the contests end date. We're all just screwing around right?

I will update before 9/1/19-2dayweekend.

[Boho]

August:

Current Rank	Previous day's rank	Account Value (USD)	Today's change in value	Overall%
1. comsecga	1	$3,344,660.61	($1,775.40)	234.47%
2. kite_rider	2	$2,683,744.96	$2,635.00	168.37%
3. Spudd	3	$2,564,382.23	$0.00	156.44%
4. cfahey27	4	$1,258,409.67	$1,671.50	25.84%
5. BohoII	5	$1,239,618.65	$26,676.63	23.96%
6. lbymfreddie	6	$1,196,206.76	$2,417.02	19.62%
7. wmc1000	7	$1,189,394.77	$3,913.47	18.94%
8. nvestysly	9	$1,128,064.16	$3,242.69	12.81%
9. wrd58	8	$1,121,477.14	($4,059.00)	12.15%
10. easysurfer	10	$1,115,007.31	$970.06	11.50%
11. DieWurst	11	$1,107,975.75	$8,220.20	10.80%
12. covert1	12	$1,024,439.74	$11,445.00	2.44%
13. t3ztam3nt	14	$1,003,665.51	($2.00)	0.37%
14. consvgmbl	15	$1,000,000.00	$0.00	0.00%
15. exnavynuke	17	$1,000,000.00	$0.00	0.00%
16. monitorLizzy	16	$1,000,000.00	$0.00	0.00%
17. dixonge	18	$1,000,000.00	$0.00	0.00%
18. jmil07	19	$1,000,000.00	$0.00	0.00%
19. secondcor521	20	$1,000,000.00	$0.00	0.00%
20. guestperson	21	$998,995.01	$325.00	-0.10%
21. RiskyBusinessC2	13	$998,878.22	($9,600.00)	-0.11%
22. natetheb	22	$938,324.11	($2,221.70)	-6.17%
23. KCScubaSteve	23	$895,097.20	$4,314.28	-10.49%
24. sengsational	24	$841,703.30	$5,846.00	-15.83%
25. ransil	25	$792,851.18	($7,620.39)	-20.71%
26. lawrencewendall	26	$723,615.05	$2,673.04	-27.64%

[ERD50]

For August, the measure of Boho versus what nunnun would be doing as our Buy & Hold proxy, by my calculations is:



Boho__: $1,239,619
nunnun: $1,290,856

Leaving Boho $51,237 behind. This was a relatively good month for Boho, he closed the gap, but ~ 1/3rd of that gain was unintended, as he tried to sell MSGN before the sudden (and obviously, unforeseen by him) rise it saw on Friday, from a buyback announcement.

About $21,700 of this months gain would not have happened if his sale went through as intended.

Seven months left to the contest, can Boho beat a do-nothing B&H investor? Perhaps, since he has lagged during much of the game, a random walk of volatility and regression to the mean could have him swinging up towards the end.

Or not.

And just to be clear, "closing the gap" is another term for... "losing". Sometimes, someone forgets the name of the game is "Beat Boho". There is only one measure of that - portfolio balance.


-ERD50

[Boho]

LOPE worked out but the see saw is making me consider sticking with large caps.