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Old 10-09-2019, 04:52 PM   #1501
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Earlier I saw two articles, one emphasizing that there's a significant difference between total market funds and S&P 500 funds and the other saying a .74% quarterly return difference (8.8% over three years) isn't significant. I chose not to post them but I will say that annual percent difference compared with the S&P 500 is what most people would care about. Last I checked that difference was under 1% and I gained in the thousands more than the S&P since then.
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Old 10-09-2019, 08:57 PM   #1502
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Originally Posted by Boho View Post
Earlier I saw two articles, one emphasizing that there's a significant difference between total market funds and S&P 500 funds and the other saying a .74% quarterly return difference (8.8% over three years) isn't significant. I chose not to post them but I will say that annual percent difference compared with the S&P 500 is what most people would care about. Last I checked that difference was under 1% and I gained in the thousands more than the S&P since then.
<re-plonk>

Good luck, everyone else.
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Old 10-09-2019, 10:00 PM   #1503
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Earlier I saw two articles, one emphasizing that there's a significant difference between total market funds and S&P 500 funds and the other saying a .74% quarterly return difference (8.8% over three years) isn't significant. I chose not to post them but I will say that annual percent difference compared with the S&P 500 is what most people would care about. Last I checked that difference was under 1% and I gained in the thousands more than the S&P since then.
Quit making excuses... you got spanked.... man up and admit it.
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Old 10-10-2019, 06:33 AM   #1504
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This sounds like a good book. "The importance of trends cannot be overlooked."
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... I gained in the thousands more than the S&P since then.
Importance of trends? And yet, you choose to ignore the trend from the start of the contest. I'd guess the book would say all trends are important, not just the ones you like.

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We've come full circle: from "H-o-c-omania" to "Bohomania".
I imagine that went over a lot of heads here I was only somewhat aware, I think he was gone by the time I started here, but there were more references to him at the time. I do recall trying to slog through one of his posts or blogs or something... Yeah, way out there, from what I recall.

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Old 10-10-2019, 10:25 AM   #1505
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In my quest to determine a sort of margin of error/significance I researched what's considered "flat" when comparing a stock's performance in one quarter with the previous quarter. I found this:

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At a headline level, Revenue exceeded by about $30M the forecast established by the previous trend of 1.5% revenue decline per quarter. This revenue decline is less than 0.1% per quarter ($2M relative to a $2,126M base for Q3), significantly better than expected and well outside a range that would represent simple variability in results. Indeed, a difference of $2M out of $2,126M might be considered flat by many and is by this analyst.
So, .1% x 4 quarters = margin of flatness for a year (.4%), That makes the margin of flatness for a three year contest 1.2%.
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Old 10-10-2019, 10:38 AM   #1506
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In my quest to determine a sort of margin of error/significance I researched what's considered "flat" when comparing a stock's performance in one quarter with the previous quarter. I found this:



So, .1% x 4 quarters = margin of flatness for a year (.4%), That makes the margin of flatness for a three year contest 1.2%.
First, I agree with the author that 0.1% difference is flat.

But..... you're only 1 1/2 years/6 quarters into the contest.... so even under your definition of flat you should only be behind by 0.6% (6 quarters * 0.1%/quarter).

At Sept 30, you are behind by 3.1%.... (your $1,282,084/ VFIAX $1,322,882)-1..... NOT 0.6%.... so you're not anywhere near to flat... your getting spanked by the S&P 500 index fund.

Math is hard.
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Old 10-10-2019, 10:39 AM   #1507
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So, .1% x 4 quarters = margin of flatness for a year (.4%), That makes the margin of flatness for a three year contest 1.2%.
^ Another example of Bohomania.
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Old 10-10-2019, 10:41 AM   #1508
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First, I agree with the author that 0.1% difference is flat.

But..... you're only 1 1/2 years/6 quarters into the contest
2-1/2 years, and I know I'm not within the margin of flatness yet...at least I wasn't last I checked...I may be now but probably not.
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Old 10-10-2019, 11:16 AM   #1509
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First, I agree with the author that 0.1% difference is flat.

But..... you're only 1 1/2 years/6 quarters into the contest.... so even under your definition of flat you should only be behind by 0.6% (6 quarters * 0.1%/quarter).

At Sept 30, you are behind by 3.1%.... (your $1,282,084/ VFIAX $1,322,882)-1..... NOT 0.6%.... so you're not anywhere near to flat... your getting spanked by the S&P 500 index fund.

Math is hard.
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2-1/2 years, and I know I'm not within the margin of flatness yet...at least I wasn't last I checked...I may be now but probably not.
You are correct... my mistake... 2 1/2 years would be 10 quarters or 1.0% and you're behind 3.1% rather than 1.0%... still getting spanked.
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Old 10-10-2019, 04:42 PM   #1510
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"margin of error/significance" "margin of flatness"?

What the heck are you going on about now?

First the contest was against all comers "Beat Boho". Then it morphed in beating the market. Then you're fixated on VOO versus VTI, versus?? And now you want to define a "margin of error"?

There is no "margin of error". A winner is a winner, a loser is a loser.

If Boho fails to outperform the market, I predict he will say he was trolling us the whole time.

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Old 10-11-2019, 11:29 PM   #1511
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Using this for the adjusted close of SPY for Aug. 12 it says $286.75. An index investor at the start of the contest who went all in on SPY would have had 4432 shares (based on a previous post where I calculated that). $286.75 x 4432 = $1,270,876. So:

SPY investor: $1,270,876
Boho: $1,295,052.49


I have $10,825.71 cash and the rest in S&P 500 funds. On Monday I could lock in this win by buying more SPY.

That gain over the S&P would buy me a 2020 Subaru Legacy.
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Old 10-12-2019, 02:54 AM   #1512
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^^^^ Cherry pickerBozo
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Old 10-12-2019, 06:56 AM   #1513
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"In the field of psychology, the Dunning–Kruger effect is a cognitive bias in which people mistakenly assess their cognitive ability as greater than it is. It is related to the cognitive bias of illusory superiority and comes from the inability of people to recognize their lack of ability. Without the self-awareness of metacognition, people cannot objectively evaluate their competence or incompetence."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunnin...3Kruger_effect
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Old 10-12-2019, 07:13 AM   #1514
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^^^^ Anyone we know?
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Old 10-12-2019, 07:47 AM   #1515
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"In the field of psychology, the Dunning–Kruger effect is a cognitive bias in which people mistakenly assess their cognitive ability as greater than it is. It is related to the cognitive bias of illusory superiority and comes from the inability of people to recognize their lack of ability. Without the self-awareness of metacognition, people cannot objectively evaluate their competence or incompetence."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunnin...3Kruger_effect

That seems to be an appropriate observation.

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^^^^ Cherry pickerBozo
As does that!

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Using this for the adjusted close of SPY for Aug. 12 it says $286.75. An index investor at the start of the contest who went all in on SPY would have had 4432 shares (based on a previous post where I calculated that). $286.75 x 4432 = $1,270,876. So:

SPY investor: $1,270,876
Boho: $1,295,052.49


I have $10,825.71 cash and the rest in S&P 500 funds. On Monday I could lock in this win by buying more SPY.

That gain over the S&P would buy me a 2020 Subaru Legacy.
Geez Boho. If you are going to post and brag in bold and large sized fonts, get your math right.

First off, cherry-picking dates that you might have been ahead are meaningless, and you should know that. How many time frames could we pick when you are behind? But nobody does that, because it is meaningless. You are losing, per your own rules. Own up, and stop making a fool of yourself in public.

Second, WTH does Aug 12th have to do with it? Looks like you are comparing your current portfolio with SPY on Aug 12th? So adj SPY was $286.75 in your calculation, but it is now $296.28. If your 4432 share number is correct, that means that a SPY account is now $1,313,113.

So let's review:

SPY investor: $1,313,113
Boho: $1,295,052.49 <<< LOSER!!!!!


I'm not sure about the "2020 Subaru Legacy index", but that puts you about $18,030.51 behind in that widely accepted thing called "US dollars".

Am I allowed a here?

edit - that's 'loser' not 'looser', though I guess I could wiggle and say he was 'looser' with the facts?


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Old 10-12-2019, 07:52 AM   #1516
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... On Monday I could lock in this win by buying more SPY. ....
I think you mean lock in your loss?

Even if you did go to SPY on a gain, it would be an admission that you can't reliably trade and do better than the market. If you could, you'd keep building upon your winnings (if you had any that is).

I'm betting more heavily on the troll admission after he loses at the end of the contest. Kind of like that TV show, where it was all a dream.

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Old 10-12-2019, 07:56 AM   #1517
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Second, WTH does Aug 12th have to do with it?
Oh, I didn't notice that. I used a previous link that I posted and I thought it went up to the current date.

Got you to do math though.
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Old 10-12-2019, 07:58 AM   #1518
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I think you mean lock in your loss?

Even if you did go to SPY on a gain, it would be an admission that you can't reliably trade and do better than the market. If you could, you'd keep building upon your winnings (if you had any that is).
That's fair. I'll keep trading to the end. I just need one winning trade per week while maintaining my current win/loss record. Down to 4/month from 30/month. I could be more selective.
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Old 10-12-2019, 08:04 AM   #1519
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Oh, I didn't notice that. I used a previous link that I posted and I thought it went up to the current date. ... .
And I didn't trust your funky 4332 (edit/update - typo, that was 4432 shares, but the calcs are done on Boho's funky 4432 share number anyhow) shares either.

So if you do it right, and consistent and take the March 29, 2017 adj close, you get:

1000000 ⋅ (296.28 ∕ 224.59)
≈ 1319203.9

So it's even worse for you. I think deserves BOLD:

SPY investor: $1,319,203.90
Boho: $1,295,052.49 <<< BIGGER LOSER!!!!!



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Oh, I didn't notice that. I used a previous link that I posted and I thought it went up to the current date. ...
I suspect you are just as careful with your trades.

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... Got you to do math though.
So do I get a Suburu? You could take out a loan.

Troll.

(Aw heck, I used 'looser' in place of 'loser', better edit that before I get slapped! )

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Old 10-12-2019, 08:15 AM   #1520
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And I didn't trust your funky 4332 shares either.
I said 4432. And I explained how I did everything. I'm not sure what you did with your fancy math. I have to look into it.
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