Stock Picking (Beat Boho) Contest - V2.0

[Texas Proud]

Oh, it absolutely is semantics.

But words are all we have, so it can make a difference. The difference I see in your examples, is that you are the one setting the expectation/target, so yes, you would be the one to be off.

But when I've seen "missed expectations" in financial news reports (which I no longer follow), it almost always means "missed analysts estimates". Am I wrong about that?

I'm going by memory here, but it seems to me most companies do not provide a specific $/share estimate for next quarters earnings. Maybe that opens them up to problems if they miss their own estimates, as in 'misleading investors', and inviting lawsuits?

-ERD50

You are right... they are leaving out the word analyst in the sentence...

It is my thinking, but you are right and wrong.... IOW, companies do not provide 'specific' estimates for the next qtr, but a number of them provide a range for revenue and earnings... that is why sometimes a company can 'beat' this qtr and drop like a rock... because they lower their guidance going forward...


Oh, another thing on the estimate... it is based on the various estimates of the analyst who follow that stock... the actual estimates are usually all over the map... I have seen some where one has estimated twice as much as another.... so I guess the wording should be 'consensus estimate' to be clear... (well, that is bad since there was no consensus... I am sure you can come up with a better word )....

 

[ERD50]

...
Oh, another thing on the estimate... it is based on the various estimates of the analyst who follow that stock... the actual estimates are usually all over the map... I have seen some where one has estimated twice as much as another.... so I guess the wording should be 'consensus estimate' to be clear... (well, that is bad since there was no consensus... I am sure you can come up with a better word )....

I think I've seen some sites provide an average of the analysts estimates, but I haven't followed that stuff in years, been taking a nap and letting that broad-based index fund do its thing!


-ERD50

 

[easysurfer]

I bought those two things as the site would not let me buy 100% Total US Market. I'm happy that I'm above the middle having done exactly nothing. It will be interesting to see what happens if the market falls. My "sit tight" strategy might not be so good if the year ends on a big downturn, but I didn't get hammered quite as badly yesterday as some of the folks above me and things have tightened up a bit.

Yes. 50% Total US, 50% SP500 is still pretty close.

I think you and I are falling as expected. Your holdings a bit more aggressive but also a bit more for growth than my holdings.

 

[Fermion]

Hah hah hah, I shorted KITE in this contest a few months ago and today Gilead buys them.

That should drop my contest portfolio by half or so. It was a coin flip if I would buy KITE or short it.

 

[Totoro]

Thank you for graciously saving us from the shame of last place Now we can start taking some more risk too!

In other news, I am now a Lamborghini Gallardo ahead of Boho.

 

[Fermion]

The funny thing was, I had purchased I think 3000 shares of KITE at $70 in the contest but sold it and went short. If I were just a buy and hold investor that $70 would be $170 in the contest putting me at Veyron levels.

 

[RISP]

In other news, I am now a Lamborghini Gallardo ahead of Boho.

How garish. Let us know when it's a Miura.

 

[Boho]

With RAD? No. I've heard the chances are 50/50 of the new deal going through within the 6 months that the government has to approve it.

This article says "In my opinion, the chances of deal approval is 80%." Then I read:

About this article:
Author payment: $35 + $0.01/page view. Authors of PRO articles receive a minimum guaranteed payment of $150-500.

Then I discovered that at most one 1 out of 50 submitted articles becomes a PRO article. I guess non PRO articles are easier to sell, which at those odds seems fairly easy. It also seems like Seeking Alpha isn't the most authoritative source of investing information. But anywhere between 50/50 and 80/20 that RAD will rise due to a merger sounds good to me.

 

[ERD50]

I'd be interested in seeing an "End -of-Month" status update, if anyone would be so kind as to post it here.

Thanks - ERD50

 

[Boho]

I'd be interested in seeing an "End -of-Month" status update, if anyone would be so kind as to post it here.

Thanks - ERD50

Comescga is first with $1,173,179.01. Up98down34 is a close second. Fermion is last (16th place) with $729,729.67. Spudd is 15th with $857,228.14, and I'm in 14th with $949,068.87. Johnny Index is in 6th.

 

[easysurfer]

Notice that we still have the symmetry. 8 folks in positive territory overall %, and 8 folks in the red.

 

[pb4uski]

The world is in balance.

 

[ERD50]

Notice that we still have the symmetry. 8 folks in positive territory overall %, and 8 folks in the red.

Relative to our "buy the market and take a nap" reference point (nunnun), we have only 5 above that point, and 10 below.

-ERD50

 

[easysurfer]

Relative to our "buy the market and take a nap" reference point (nunnun), we have only 5 above that point, and 10 below.

-ERD50

Sounds about right .

 

[Totoro]

Anyone care to do the total sum vs. nunnun? Total money gained above minus total money lost.

 

[Boho]

Anyone care to do the total sum vs. nunnun? Total money gained above minus total money lost.

Not sure this is what you asked for but this is what I did, using the above chart from yesterday:

Sum of account values for players beating and losing to nunnun
$5,651,213.39 (sum for 5 players)
$9,464,079.33 (sum for 10 players)

nunnun * 5 = $5,265,155.30
nunnun * 10 = $10,530,310.60

$5,651,213.39 - $5,265,155.30 = $386,058.09 (total gained)
$10,530,310.60 - $9,464,079.33 = $1,066,231.27 (total lost)

$386,058.09 - $1,066,231.27 = -$680,173.18

 

[nvestysly]

Hello, I'm late to the game but stumbled onto this thread and decided to join the fun.

I purchased 20 (mostly) dividend paying stocks and plan to let them ride to a great extent. I probably will not make many trades unless I decide to trade that same stock in my real portfolio.

But I have a question... I like to reinvest my dividends and I don't see that as an option on the Investopedia page. What do I need to do in order to reinvest the dividends?

Thanks. Looking forward to seeing how this all turns out in 2020.

 

[Lawrencewendall]

Hello, I'm late to the game but stumbled onto this thread and decided to join the fun.

I purchased 20 (mostly) dividend paying stocks and plan to let them ride to a great extent. I probably will not make many trades unless I decide to trade that same stock in my real portfolio.

But I have a question... I like to reinvest my dividends and I don't see that as an option on the Investopedia page. What do I need to do in order to reinvest the dividends?

Thanks. Looking forward to seeing how this all turns out in 2020.

Keep checking your Corporate Action History and when the Divs post, buy more shares of whatever.

 

[Rosie]

Hello, I'm late to the game but stumbled onto this thread and decided to join the fun.

Likewize.

It'll take me a while to get familiarized with the site so I doubt I'll be doing any trading for some time. I hope that's OK.

 

[easysurfer]

Likewize.

It'll take me a while to get familiarized with the site so I doubt I'll be doing any trading for some time. I hope that's OK.

That's fine. The more the merrier for the contest.

Welcome aboard .

 

[nun]

Relative to our "buy the market and take a nap" reference point (nunnun), we have only 5 above that point, and 10 below.

-ERD50

While I was away riding my bike and drinking beers I seem to have risen to 5th place. I'm off to do more riding and drinking and I'll check back in a couple of weeks.

 

[Lawrencewendall]

Kind of weird. One of my stocks (AGNC) paid dividends in my Fidelity account last week but it hasn't shown up in the simulation yet.

 

[nvestysly]

Kind of weird. One of my stocks (AGNC) paid dividends in my Fidelity account last week but it hasn't shown up in the simulation yet.

Be sure to tell us how this works out for you. I'm curious to see how dividends are handled in the simulator.

Seems like they have to be paid in some manner and I hope they can be automatically reinvested. Otherwise, my investment "strategy" is not going to work well with this simulator. I certainly don't want to incur a $5 charge to reinvest.

 

[Lawrencewendall]

Be sure to tell us how this works out for you. I'm curious to see how dividends are handled in the simulator.

Seems like they have to be paid in some manner and I hope they can be automatically reinvested. Otherwise, my investment "strategy" is not going to work well with this simulator. I certainly don't want to incur a $5 charge to reinvest.

Unfortunately, that's how it works. It shows up as available cash. Just wait until you have a significant amount and the $5 will not seem like much.

 

[Boho]

This is the longest outage I've seen. Hopefully they won't lose data.