Stock Picking (Beat Boho) Contest - V2.0

[ERD50]

nunnun is in super cruise control as in all US stock index ETFs . 1/2 Total stock, 1/2 SP 500.

I'm in index ETFs some US, some International some Bonds with a dab of cash.

nunnun is ahead of me until the market tanks .

OK, thanks. Makes sense, bonds will be a drag in an up market, but they are there to provide some stability so one just has to accept that for the defensive position they provide in any down market.

There's sort of a maturity date to my picks and I feel like I shouldn't be judged until then (I'm not talking about the end of the contest). .... So yeah, no impressive results but I don't feel like it matters yet.

No, it doesn't matter yet, 'winning' or 'losing'. But I still don't see how selecting a time frame for each trade (using my previous phrase) can reasonably be expected to regularly beat the market. Your 'bet' either works or it doesn't in that time frame. I don't see anything that can be expected to make your selected bets have a better chance on average than the general 'market bet'.

Will we get enough of your trade 'events' in this contest to be statistically significant, or will this just be 'noise'? It will be interesting to see charts after some time. A strategy with a real benefit ought to get ahead and stay ahead - maybe not right from the start, due to volatility. But if it can't provide that in some reasonable time (and now you have ground to make up), what is the point?

-ERD50

 

[Fermion]

I do not think one can consistently pick winner stocks which is why I am invested 95% in index funds.

That being said, my trading account has caused my overall portfolio to be up an additional 7% this year.

 

[kgtest]

I gamble with 20% of my portfolio on individuals. I need to learn to set stop losses though lol. I am behind on most equities I chose in past three years with exception of AAPL. That one makes up for all my loser's lol. Oh I own MMM, CASY, AAPL, HAS and DAL. I've lost on CAT, TASR, and XOM in my past gambling life.

 

[Totoro]

Will we get enough of your trade 'events' in this contest to be statistically significant, or will this just be 'noise'? It will be interesting to see charts after some time. A strategy with a real benefit ought to get ahead and stay ahead - maybe not right from the start, due to volatility. But if it can't provide that in some reasonable time (and now you have ground to make up), what is the point?

Even Buffett never outperformed the markets all the time. Statistically speaking, distinguishing luck from skill with an airtight judgment as in engineering or physics is nigh impossible. Too much noise.

I can only come up with one fund myself: The Medaillon Fund. Over 30 years of consistent double digit outperformance, done mostly with high frequency trading.

 

[braumeister]

Even Buffett never outperformed the markets all the time.

Definitely a late bloomer.

 

[Fermion]

Man if he lives to 110 he will be worth more than the USA debt.

 

[sengsational]

Looking at my trades, one might not be able to discern a strategy (hehe!), but there is one. It's a "fallen angel" idea. I would have liked to buy-in over the span of a year, but because the time span of the contest is so short, I bought in all at once, then rotated out of 1/6th of my original positions every month or so. Now I have six batches that I'll turn over every 6 months. I'd rather turn them over every year, but, again, I'm up against the short duration of the contest. The strategy uses mostly smaller cap stock, so since that hasn't done as well as large cap recently, there's a systemic penalty at the moment. If those reverse in the next couple of years, there will be a systemic advantage.

I didn't enter the contest to win. That's a remote possibility, but usually in these kinds of contests, if there are enough players, the winner is someone who "puts it all on black", so to speak. And for every wining player with that strategy, there's a matching player at the bottom of the rankings. My strategy is not an "all on black" approach, since I'm diversified in 30 different companies. I entered the contest to learn if the higher-frequency strategy I devised to align with the contest duration would hold up as well as a lower-frequency strategy.

 

[sengsational]

On day one I tried to buy 200,000 shares of Endocyte in this contest but the rules would not allow it.

I would be #1 by miles.

What time of day? I noticed that later in the day, you're allowed to buy more than earlier in the day.

 

[Fermion]

What time of day? I noticed that later in the day, you're allowed to buy more than earlier in the day.

At any time I think you could only buy 10% of the daily volume and Endocyte was trading around 100,000 shares a day then (now it is 53 million shares traded in a day). I was not so into the contest that I was willing to log in 20 times in 20 days to place trades.

 

[ERD50]

There's sort of a maturity date to my picks and I feel like I shouldn't be judged until then (I'm not talking about the end of the contest). Rite Aid matured and I lost on that one. DRAD matured and I sort of lost on that one but I'm holding until next quarter. .....

How much DRAD do you hold? Down 27% today

ARNA looks like the only one I've heard you mention that might be working out for you, depending when you got in.

Good luck.

-ERD50

 

[Boho]

How much DRAD do you hold? Down 27% today

ARNA looks like the only one I've heard you mention that might be working out for you, depending when you got in.

Good luck.

-ERD50

12642 of Drad, about $30,656.85 right now. They're working on an impact statement.

I didn't get in ARNA at a good time. Bought for $26.87, currently $25.87.

Did more research on DRAD:

"After the Termination Date, the Company will not be considered a Philips Original Equipment Manufacturer service provider pursuant to the Consolidated Agreement and Remote Services Agreement. As such, the Company will be free to sell and service contracts for any manufacturing entity, customer type, or geographical location, all of which were limited under the Consolidated Agreement and Remote Services Agreement."

Sometimes it's a good thing to get out of such a contract. I won't be selling today.

 

[easysurfer]

In the spirit of baseball playoffs, Fermion hit a grand slam, jumping from 21st place to 6th place in one day.

A change in value of over $340K.

 

[Fermion]

What is up with that? Might be a mistake I didn't think I had any Endocyte in there. It could be my KITE short isn't registering correctly.

 

[sengsational]

It could be my KITE short isn't registering correctly.

That looks like it. Netting that, your total is $710K. Back to 21st place

I didn't think I had any Endocyte in there.

Looks like you had as many as 40,000 shares at one point, it looks like.

 

[kite_rider]

I'm late to the party, but this looks fun so I'm in...

Props to 'up98down34' - seems like a large position in MNKD took him to the moon. Sort of reminiscent of Furmion's recent pick of ECYT. Too bad he didn't have that in his portfolio before the spike in price.

Looks like it's time for me to get up to speed on Biotech.

 

[Fermion]

That looks like it. Netting that, your total is $710K. Back to 21st place

Looks like you had as many as 40,000 shares at one point, it looks like.

Yes. I was just going to put the whole portfolio in Endocyte but got frustrated with the contest rules (which were reasonable actually). If I spend 20 days buying a stock, I want it to be real money!

 

[nvestysly]

Like the Game... Dislike Investopedia

Okay, I've only been participating in the game for just over one month and find myself right in the middle of the pack with my ho-hum, large cap, mostly dividend paying stock portfolio.

Unfortunately Investopedia apparently doesn't provide a means of dividend reinvestment (bogus) and even worse Ivestopedia seems like they don't even register the dividends at all (completely bogus!). I've contacted Investopedia but no response from them at this point.

The game is still fun and I'll keep watching. I have no plans to make any trades as I am a set-it-and-forget-it investor.

 

[Boho]

I never looked into that, but DRAD is known for really good dividends and it would be nice if I actually benefited from them.

I think non-traders should have two accounts in the game, one for investing as they normally would and one for trading for fun. I don't think most non-traders know how good or bad they are.

 

[braumeister]

I never looked into that, but DRAD is known for really good dividends and it would be nice if I actually benefited from them.

I think non-traders should have two accounts in the game, one for investing as they normally would and one for trading for fun. I don't think most non-traders know how good or bad they are.

Agreed. It is, after all, a game.

 

[sengsational]

I thought dividends were being credited to your cash. At least I've been getting at least some dividend income.

Earlier I noticed that "the books didn't balance"...I'm shy about $68 if I take all buy, sell, and "corporate action" (dividend) transactions. I might spot-check some dividends just to see if they're credited.

Edit: I only checked a few, but found they did credit me with dividends for those.

 

[harley]

I think non-traders should have two accounts in the game, one for investing as they normally would and one for trading for fun. I don't think most non-traders know how good or bad they are.

I'm not sure that's true. I think a lot of us non-traders are non-traders exactly because we're learned how bad we are as traders. Been there, lost that (with real money).

 

[REWahoo]

I'm not sure that's true. I think a lot of us non-traders are non-traders exactly because we're learned how bad we are as traders. Been there, lost that (with real money).

^ What he said.

 

[nvestysly]

Okay, I've only been participating in the game for just over one month and find myself right in the middle of the pack with my ho-hum, large cap, mostly dividend paying stock portfolio.

Unfortunately Investopedia apparently doesn't provide a means of dividend reinvestment (bogus) and even worse Ivestopedia seems like they don't even register the dividends at all (completely bogus!). I've contacted Investopedia but no response from them at this point.

The game is still fun and I'll keep watching. I have no plans to make any trades as I am a set-it-and-forget-it investor.

I just looked at my Investpedia account again and I see that several dividends were paid as cash. So my "completely bogus" comment is unfounded. As of today I'm sticking with my "bogus" assessment that dividends cannot be automatically reinvested. When I accumulate a reasonable amount of cash I'll buy more of a selected stock but that's not nearly as effective as automatic dividend reinvestment.

 

[sengsational]

Doesn't the increased demand posed by all those people taking the easy way out (dividend re-investment) push up the price the day when the dividend is paid? I don't know how this works in the real world...never researched it...but "logically", there's an unnatural huge demand on the payable date. Maybe "bogus" will actually let you get a better price?

 

[easysurfer]

Just checked the rankings today and guess what? Boho is now in last place.

But the bright side for Boho is down less than 8% since contest start.

I'm steadily, sitting in 9th place out of 22 entrants .