Stock Picking (Beat Boho) Contest - V2.0

[Boho]

Quote:

Originally Posted by ERD50 I should probably repeat what I've said before. Boho certainly could come out high in the rank at the end (or low in the rank). That's what can happen when you have low diversification. It can be highly volatile, and far more likely to be up or down a lot, compared to a broad index. It's kind of funny that he's talking about getting more diversified after he's down. That's just the opposite of how this game could be played. If I had managed to have some good trades, I would then diversify to try to lock in that gain. He is likely to lock in his (relative) loss. He probably has a better chance of coming out ahead at this point if he shoots for the fences. Not a good investing strategy, but probably the right game strategy at this point. He still has a lot to learn. -ERD50

You're talking like I want to buy the index. I'd just like to hold 5-6 stocks at a time instead of 1-3, or at least keep each one below $200,000. I don't take the time to do all that.

[ERD50]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Boho You're talking like I want to buy the index. I'd just like to hold 5-6 stocks at a time instead of 1-3, or at least keep each one below $200,000. I don't take the time to do all that.

No, that's not what I said.

But that's OK. Carry on.

-ERD50

[Boho]

I was going to buy the S&P index which would have been my first trade in months but then I checked the chart for the year and it looks like the comments about gains for the year being erased are a little misleading. The market got freakishly high in the beginning of the year before quickly dropping. I agree with pb4uski:

Quote:

Originally Posted by pb4uski VTI is only ~10% off from it 52 week high so it may have a way to go.

This will be another month of no activity for me. Things are narrowing between me and nunnun just by me holding.

[Boho]

Just to show I'm still playing, I looked for something to buy on Monday but I'm going to wait until more third quarter reports come in before I look again. I think there will be a small window between that and Trump's China meeting when I may buy. Like the second week of November. I almost bought L3 Technologies though.

[natetheb]

Does the simulator replicate dividends and DRIP properly? If so, I will consider joining this late in the game as a test of some things I am considering.

[sengsational]

The simulator will put dividends into your cash account. You have to reinvest them manually.

[natetheb]

Quote:

Originally Posted by sengsational The simulator will put dividends into your cash account. You have to reinvest them manually.

Thanks. Not ideal, but I can definitely work with that. This is good, I hope to compare an investment strategy I am considering for the long term. I am going to try to compare the performance of the standard index fund to some momentum funds, as well as compare against REITs. Also, I am having some fun by investing in Amazon and some Chinese stocks. This will probably be the only time in my life I will ever "own" Amazon stock (too rich for me) so I thought I would have some fun. My current allocation is:


Standard Index: VOO
Momentum Indexes: MTUM, VFMO
Quarterly Dividend REITs: MFA, NYMT, CHIM
Monthly dividend REIT: AGNC
Fun stocks: AMZN, CQQQ


I don't plan on changing anything except selling AMZN after the Christmas purchasing rush is over. I will either reinvest that cash in an international index or VOO.

[Boho]

EOM results:

[ERD50]

So compared to our index B&H reference from nunnun, Boho had a relatively good month in October, with ~ 1% better relative performance for the month.

But since the contest start, Boho's trading portfolio has gained just 0.69% , while the 'do nothing' approach from nunnun has returned 17.66%.

Boho's rank is 19 out of 34, versus 7out of 34 for nunnun.

And so it goes...

-ERD50

[braumeister]

It's a long way from over.

Since the start of this year, Boho has rocketed up from 21st place to, um, 19th. Way to go, Bo!

[SecondCor521]

Quote:

Originally Posted by ERD50 So compared to our index B&H reference from nunnun, Boho had a relatively good month in October, with ~ 1% better relative performance for the month. But since the contest start, Boho's trading portfolio has gained just 0.69% , while the 'do nothing' approach from nunnun has returned 17.66%. Boho's rank is 19 out of 34, versus 7out of 34 for nunnun. And so it goes... -ERD50

Or about 50 cents per hour. But that 50 cents per hour is 24/7, so there's that.

[ERD50]

Quote:

Originally Posted by SecondCor521 Or about 50 cents per hour. But that 50 cents per hour is 24/7, so there's that.

The way I calculate this, Boho has lost $13.00 per hour (24/7 - waking, sleeping, every hour of his life during this contest!).

Considering nunnun has put nearly zero hours into this, and Boho is $169,676 behind him, and there has been ~ 13,056 hours since the start of the contest.

That hurts!

Now, just think about if we allocated the relative loss to just the hours Boho has spent researching and following his trades. If one hour per day, that's losing $312/hour! Double ouch!

-ERD50

[Boho]

Here’s a reminder that stock-market corrections don’t always become bear markets

Quote:

When they did occur, bear markets over the past 90 years resulted in an average decline of 37% over 358 days

I gained about 1% over nunnun in one month of a "correction territory" market. That would be about 12% over a 358 day bear market. That would put me at about 12% gain overall in the contest while nunnun would drop 37% from his 17.66% making me far ahead. So far that somewhat less than a bear market could easily put me ahead too.

Kind of. That's my rough calculation anyway.

[ERD50]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Boho Here’s a reminder that stock-market corrections don’t always become bear markets I gained about 1% over nunnun in one month of a "correction territory" market. That would be about 12% over a 358 day bear market. That would put me at about 12% gain overall in the contest while nunnun would drop 37% from his 17.66% making me far ahead. So far that somewhat less than a bear market could easily put me ahead too.

But I don't accept that you will consistently outperform the market in a bear.

You still own only a few stocks, right? The volatility can work either way.


Hmmm, take FEB2018 for example. Nunnun was down -3.69% and you were down even further, -3.90%. So you sure can't count on that.

And nunnun more than made up in some other months, like:


AUG 2018 - nunnun was up 3.26%, while Boho was down -1.67%.

And that is why you are doing so poorly. Even if your 'approach' (which hasn't really been defined) works in a bear, the market mostly goes up, so that's a really bad strategy. But you don't need me to tell you that, the numbers show you.

Good Luck! (if we can call 'luck' a 'strategy!)

-ERD50

[Boho]

I hadn't heard we were in "correction territory" before this month, much less a bear market. Maybe I can't win every single down month.

[natetheb]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Boho I gained about 1% over nunnun in one month of a "correction territory" market. That would be about 12% over a 358 day bear market. That would put me at about 12% gain overall in the contest while nunnun would drop 37% from his 17.66% making me far ahead. So far that somewhat less than a bear market could easily put me ahead too. Kind of. That's my rough calculation anyway.

I thought this was a marathon type contest, not a "I have the fastest mile sprint within a 26.2 mile contest?"


I don't know if you have ever run a marathon, but 100% of the runners of said event don't give 2 sips of Gatorade about a singular mileage split, it is about consistency over all 26.2 miles.

[ERD50]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Boho I hadn't heard we were in "correction territory" before this month, much less a bear market. Maybe I can't win every single down month.

Now I'm back to wondering if you are just trolling us. How can you actually say " Maybe I can't win every single down month."?

There is no 'maybe' about it. I showed you a down month that you didn't win.

Quote:

... Hmmm, take FEB2018 for example. Nunnun was down -3.69% and you were down even further, -3.90%. So you sure can't count on that. ...

-ERD50

[jazz4cash]

I’m not following too closely so I could use an explanation. It appears that Boho at #19 with a gain of <1% is barely ahead of several participants that are at exactly $1M and others that are in the red. Should I assume the players with exactly $1M are in cash and inactive? And Boho is barely ahead? Can the program apply any interest from cash investments like MM or CDs? It seems these would be ahead of Boho at this point.

[Boho]

Quote:

Originally Posted by jazz4cash I’m not following too closely so I could use an explanation. It appears that Boho at #19 with a gain of <1% is barely ahead of several participants that are at exactly $1M and others that are in the red. Should I assume the players with exactly $1M are in cash and inactive? And Boho is barely ahead? Can the program apply any interest from cash investments like MM or CDs? It seems these would be ahead of Boho at this point.

I don't know about interest but you can see if a player has bought anything by clicking "history" next to their name. I believe everyone with $1,000,000 has been totally inactive.

[ransil]

Woo hoo im not in last place !