Join Early Retirement Today
Closed Thread
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
Stocks keep going up a good thing maybe
Old 12-07-2016, 03:01 PM   #1
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
street's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2016
Posts: 1,548
Stocks keep going up a good thing maybe

I hope this is the right place for this thread but a question for anyone even in not retired.
I'm not a person that constantly watched the markets but I do pay some attention to what it does a little more since I have been retired.
As I watch it to continue to rise (today 300 points) it has some concern for me. I'm not complaining just saying it has come up a long ways since the election one month ago.
So what are your thought or do you have a concerns with such robust gains. Are stocks being over sold and does it mean more people are starting to buy more and having a better out look on the economy?
__________________

street is offline  
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Old 12-07-2016, 03:04 PM   #2
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
REWahoo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Texas Hill Country
Posts: 44,167
Unless you are a dirty market timer what does it matter? The market goes up a lot, then rebalance. The marked drops a lot, then rebalance. And on we go...
__________________

__________________
Numbers is hard

Charter resident of the lumpen slums of cyberspace

Retired in 2005 at age 58, no pension
REWahoo is offline  
Old 12-07-2016, 03:11 PM   #3
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Nov 2011
Posts: 2,678
Election of ProBusiness Person + Santa Claus Rally + economy improving enough to raise rates + money coming out of bonds with nowhere else to go => rising equity prices
GrayHare is online now  
Old 12-07-2016, 03:20 PM   #4
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
target2019's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2008
Posts: 4,082
Employment reports strong. Real wages rising. There's 7-8 years of momentum in this market. Don't spoil it?
target2019 is offline  
Old 12-07-2016, 03:20 PM   #5
Administrator
MichaelB's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Home Sweet Home
Posts: 26,917
Market timing, so the thread was moved.
MichaelB is offline  
Old 12-07-2016, 03:23 PM   #6
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: Midwest
Posts: 1,741
Quote:
So what are your thought or do you have a concerns with such robust gains.
No real systemic, game changing concerns as such. Thoughts? Probably overbought but that is not a disaster. These things happen all the time in good times and bad just as oversold conditions happen. The bigger the spike up, the tangier the snap back. A buying opportunity if you're inclined that way.

Keep in mind it's the "Good Season." Nov-May. Some people might be playing that. Also, there might be a play to make some money while they can. Not to turn this political but Trump is something of an ongoing X factor. (That's probably a bipartisan statement) Remember election night futures trading? So far he seems to be steadying out. Or people are steadying out vis a vis the Pres Elect? So people feel good.

As usual, more than one thing is going on behind the Green Door.
razztazz is online now  
Old 12-07-2016, 03:25 PM   #7
Full time employment: Posting here.
 
Join Date: Apr 2014
Location: Houston
Posts: 646
Of course no one knows what will happen over time but it's nice to see the market ceiling moved up a bit. To me, the underlying issues causing the very slow growth in our economy for several years haven't yet changed....only people's hope that things will change. So the run up of prices feels like just speculation IMHO. I will probably decrease my equity holdings a bit in early 2017 to lock in some of the gains and lower our overall risk in the event of a market drop. Unlike most of people who post here, my financial plan includes a fairly broad range for target asset allocation and any changes I make will stay within those ranges. The range is intended to allow us to remove risk when the market feels over priced for a period of time and take on more risk when it feels undervalued. So it's a bit of market timing / speculation to keep risk levels where we are comfortable with.
Whisper66 is offline  
Old 12-07-2016, 03:29 PM   #8
Administrator
MichaelB's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Home Sweet Home
Posts: 26,917
It would be a good idea to keep politics and elections out of the discussion.
MichaelB is offline  
Old 12-07-2016, 04:09 PM   #9
Recycles dryer sheets
YVRRocketSurgery's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2015
Location: Vancouver
Posts: 492
Yes, overall, I agree that it shouldn't matter because markets overall go up in the long term. But it's kind of a love / hate thing.

It's just in my nature to be concerned because I can't fully appreciate the justification of this rally to new highs and would hate to see the numbers in my spreadsheet fall short of my forecasts. On the other hand, it's nice to see my numbers hit my targets at end of year to validate I'm on track (particularly after how the Canadian market took a tumble at the end of last year).

I believe in Santa Claus rallies but there is an expectation that new policy around deregulation, stimulus through tax cuts and infrastructure spending, etc will support increased corporate earnings. It likely won't be pretty if the increased earnings don't materialize.
__________________
Target April 2022
"Life moves pretty fast. If you don't stop and look around for a while, you could miss it."
YVRRocketSurgery is offline  
Old 12-07-2016, 04:13 PM   #10
gone traveling
 
Join Date: Sep 2013
Posts: 1,248
Quote:
Originally Posted by MichaelB View Post
It would be a good idea to keep politics and elections out of the discussion.
Michael you are right. But what we see is positive market reaction to leadership which looks more and more as very business friendly. (As more billionaires take key posts) It is as simple as that.

If corporate taxes are lowered from 35% to 15% we may see eye-popping returns in equities and dividends. Such tax cut is like automatic increased earnings. We may see oversees cash of Cisco or Apple coming back etc etc
eta2020 is offline  
Old 12-07-2016, 04:22 PM   #11
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Apr 2013
Posts: 6,849
The markets make sense till they don't.
MRG is offline  
Old 12-07-2016, 04:23 PM   #12
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
target2019's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2008
Posts: 4,082
To answer the question subject of this thread, stocks going up is a good thing, yes. And then you Rebalance according to your investing policy.
target2019 is offline  
Old 12-07-2016, 04:28 PM   #13
Recycles dryer sheets
YVRRocketSurgery's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2015
Location: Vancouver
Posts: 492
Quote:
Originally Posted by eta2020 View Post
Michael you are right. But what we see is positive market reaction to leadership which looks more and more as very business friendly. (As more billionaires take key posts) It is as simple as that.

If corporate taxes are lowered from 35% to 15% we may see eye-popping returns in equities and dividends. Such tax cut is like automatic increased earnings. We may see oversees cash of Cisco or Apple coming back etc etc
I agree. IMO, there's a lot of expectation around future policy and how it will impact different sectors. Tax cuts. Higher interest rates and deregulation benefiting financials and lifeco's. Infrastructure spend impacting construction and materials. A stronger military impacting the defense industry. Energy policy impacting oil and pipeline companies. Pharmaceuticals potentially benefiting from less scrutiny of drug prices.
__________________
Target April 2022
"Life moves pretty fast. If you don't stop and look around for a while, you could miss it."
YVRRocketSurgery is offline  
Old 12-07-2016, 04:32 PM   #14
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
NW-Bound's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 21,432
Quote:
Originally Posted by YVRRocketSurgery View Post
...Pharmaceuticals potentially benefiting from less scrutiny of drug prices.
No longer true, after a recent interview with Time.

"I'm going to bring down drug prices... I don't like what has happened with drug prices" -- Trump

See: http://money.cnn.com/2016/12/07/inve...ech/index.html.
__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that can happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky
NW-Bound is offline  
Old 12-07-2016, 04:36 PM   #15
gone traveling
 
Join Date: Sep 2013
Posts: 1,248
Quote:
Originally Posted by YVRRocketSurgery View Post
I agree. IMO, there's a lot of expectation around future policy and how it will impact different sectors. Tax cuts. Higher interest rates and deregulation benefiting financials and lifeco's. Infrastructure spend impacting construction and materials. A stronger military impacting the defense industry. Energy policy impacting oil and pipeline companies. Pharmaceuticals potentially benefiting from less scrutiny of drug prices.
The trump card for up is "Tax cuts" and for decline is "trade wars" and potentially sporadic/unpredictable behavior.
eta2020 is offline  
Old 12-07-2016, 08:32 PM   #16
Moderator Emeritus
Ronstar's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: A little ways southwest of Chicago
Posts: 10,176
Thanks for the discussion. Thread is closed due to posts containing election and political comments.
__________________

__________________
The wilderness is calling and I must go.
Ronstar is offline  
Closed Thread


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
What to keep in after-tax and what to keep in tax advantaged? LakeTravis FIRE and Money 5 10-23-2013 06:04 AM
Going Solar - Maybe jimnjana Other topics 75 10-20-2013 05:48 PM
I think I'm FI...maybe not, maybe so...um I dunno! panhead FIRE and Money 18 11-19-2012 11:40 AM
Keep going and retire early or take a 5 year recess. las200 Young Dreamers 48 04-14-2011 04:35 AM
I am going to become an aunt today! Keep fingers crossed! Fireup2020 Other topics 20 10-12-2007 09:11 PM

» Quick Links

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 11:28 AM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2018, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.