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12-02-2018, 04:37 PM
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#1
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Dec 2013
Posts: 774
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Tariff relief rally
China & US make nice. Futures are up.
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12-02-2018, 05:01 PM
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#2
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: Miraflores,Peru
Posts: 1,992
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We are coming off the biggest weekly rally in 7 years, I think?
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12-02-2018, 05:03 PM
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#3
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Moderator Emeritus
Join Date: Apr 2011
Location: Conroe, Texas
Posts: 18,731
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Free bird
China & US make nice. Futures are up.
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Nice to hear.
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*********Go Yankees!*********
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12-02-2018, 05:05 PM
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#4
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Upstate
Posts: 2,951
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Thanks for the post. Busy weekend, and I hadn't seen the news.
S&P 500 futures up 1.44% as I type this. Would have expected even more, but I guess something along these lines was expected (priced in).
Since I'm sitting on some Apple 180 Feb 2019 calls (bought 11/23 @ $8.45), I'm hoping for a pop here. (Originally bought thinking that Apple's Feb earnings results will be better than expected given how awful the news flow has been on it since it peaked at $132.) However, if we get a decent lift off of the trade news, I am likely to sell them and take the 2018 profit and go on to something else (especially since Apple is my #1 individual holding).
ETA: Dow Jones futures up 440 points (1.7%) as of 7:10 PM Eastern.
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12-02-2018, 06:04 PM
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#5
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jan 2018
Location: Tampa
Posts: 11,299
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Would be nice to have that year end rally to add a little to next years' withdrawal.
__________________
TGIM
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12-02-2018, 06:07 PM
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#6
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Dec 2013
Posts: 774
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Plenty of time for the December/ January run up. You know its coming. Santa on his way. Tis bonus season.
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12-02-2018, 06:28 PM
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#7
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Oct 2006
Posts: 7,733
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The market was expecting some type of deal. (I expected nothing, so I'm now less bearish on the market in the short term.) My guess is that a 3 month delay is pretty much what the market expect, but there is still some relief it happened.
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12-02-2018, 06:29 PM
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#8
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: northern Michigan
Posts: 2,215
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From what I read, they really didn't agree to do anything other than postpone resolving their differences for a while. This, from CNN:
"The statements issued by the two sides, while each positive, illuminated how far apart Washington and Beijing remain despite each country's leader boasting about their strong personal relationship.
The starkest difference was the omission in China's statement of any agreed upon timetable for negotiations.
Also absent was specific mention of what markets China would be inclined to open up -- like agriculture, energy and industrial US products -- three sectors touted by White House Press Secretary Sarah Sanders in her brief statement on Saturday.
Trump repeatedly referred to agriculture -- a flag, perhaps, to US soybean farmers who have been the first to feel pain from Chinese retaliation. "China will be buying massive amounts of product from us, including agricultural, from our farmers -- tremendous amount of agricultural and other products," Trump said.
"Going down the line, you can see what was left ambiguous," said Allen, who viewed the absence of a joint statement as yet another signal of an unclear understanding from both sides.
China's statement also didn't mention Xi's willingness to consider approving a $44 billion deal for Qualcomm Inc. to purchase NXP Semiconductors NV, if the deal was put before him again -- a gesture the White House lauded as an achievement over dinner talks. In July, Qualcomm scrapped the proposed deal for its rival chip maker after waiting nearly two years for approval from Chinese regulators as tensions escalated between the two countries."
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12-02-2018, 06:44 PM
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#9
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Dec 2016
Location: DC area
Posts: 2,496
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Well, it delays the Jan. 1st 25% tariffs on $200B of Chinese goods and threatened tariffs on an additional $267B for at least 3 months - that's something. I wonder why the CNN article does not mention that?
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FI and Semi-ER March 24, 2017
Consulting to stay engaged
"All models are wrong, some are useful." - George Box
“There is always a well-known solution to every human problem: neat, plausible, and wrong.” - H.L. Mencken
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12-02-2018, 06:48 PM
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#10
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Dec 2013
Posts: 774
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No one cares about CNN. I don't have cable TV since 1986.
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12-02-2018, 07:00 PM
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#11
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: northern Michigan
Posts: 2,215
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Quote:
Originally Posted by USGrant1962
Well, it delays the Jan. 1st 25% tariffs on $200B of Chinese goods and threatened tariffs on an additional $267B for at least 3 months - that's something. I wonder why the CNN article does not mention that?
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Right, it just delays things, does not really resolve anything. Kicking the can down the road, basically. I'm sure the markets will react positively to that for a little while, but it's certainly no landmark agreement.
The gist of this has been reported by many news outlets, not just CNN. This is from CNBC:
"This is all constructive news for markets, however the overarching concerns in the US-China relationship remain, and thus should imply caution for markets past the short-term,” wrote Sacha Tihanyi, deputy head of emerging markets for TD Securities, in a note. Some of the bigger, structural “issues are not ones that we believe can be easily tackled in a 90-day period.”
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12-03-2018, 03:08 AM
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#12
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 617
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Wow. Shocker. <yawn>
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12-03-2018, 03:42 AM
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#13
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Rio Grande Valley
Posts: 38,145
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Short squeeze.
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Retired since summer 1999.
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12-03-2018, 08:42 AM
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#14
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2014
Location: Spending the Kids Inheritance and living in Chicago
Posts: 17,099
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Quote:
Originally Posted by audreyh1
Short squeeze.
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If true, then time to sell
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Fortune favors the prepared mind. ... Louis Pasteur
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12-03-2018, 09:13 AM
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#15
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Dec 2008
Location: On a hill in the Pine Barrens
Posts: 9,722
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Quote:
Originally Posted by audreyh1
Short squeeze.
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Like squeezing a balloon. There is a noticeable budge in reaction to news. But when you let go, the balloon returns to its previous volume.
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12-03-2018, 09:26 AM
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#16
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Mar 2011
Posts: 8,420
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RAE
This, from CNN:
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Had a personal experience with CNN twisting the facts years ago.
I don't believe a word they say.
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Living well is the best revenge!
Retired @ 52 in 2005
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12-03-2018, 09:29 AM
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#17
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Nov 2016
Posts: 9,525
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^ wouldn't believe a word they say, nicely said. LOL
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12-03-2018, 09:35 AM
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#18
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Aug 2013
Location: North
Posts: 4,043
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Kickin the can down the road. See a lot of that lately. I still believe after that awesome rally last week, we have about 2-3% more to climb before year end.
What I don't get is why did the Government decide to close? 17.5 more trading days to go. I've seen a lot happen in 17 days in the markets but usually not too much action around the holidays. Not in the past few years at least.
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Time > $$$ ~ 100% equities ~ FIRE @2031
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12-03-2018, 09:47 AM
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#19
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Boise
Posts: 7,882
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kgtest
What I don't get is why did the Government decide to close?
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As far as I can tell of a quick scan of my news sources, the government appears to be open currently.
I know there is a budget deadline and the President has threatened to close the federal government if he doesn't get funding for the border wall, so maybe that is what you're referring to. But I don't believe that has actually happened yet.
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"At times the world can seem an unfriendly and sinister place, but believe us when we say there is much more good in it than bad. All you have to do is look hard enough, and what might seem to be a series of unfortunate events, may in fact be the first steps of a journey." Violet Baudelaire.
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12-03-2018, 09:50 AM
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#20
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: May 2013
Location: ATL --> Flyover Country
Posts: 6,649
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kgtest
Kickin the can down the road. See a lot of that lately. I still believe after that awesome rally last week, we have about 2-3% more to climb before year end.
What I don't get is why did the Government decide to close? 17.5 more trading days to go. I've seen a lot happen in 17 days in the markets but usually not too much action around the holidays. Not in the past few years at least.
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Are you talking about the markets being closed on Wednesday for Bush 41?
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