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Old 09-17-2008, 10:53 AM   #21
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Originally Posted by al_bundy View Post
if you look at the chart over a year the MACD looks like a reverse head and shoulders and building a right shoulder. the MACD histogram from march to now also looks like a bullish divergence. full stochastics are looking bullish since mid July while the market is lower, another bullish divergence.

weekly 3 year chart of the sp500 is also showing bullish divergences on the macd and stochastics. very similar to 2002. i don't think it's the bottom, but i think we'll see a rally from here
I think you only apply "H&S" to price no other indicators.
The MACD is below the 0 line and pointing down on the daily and looks flat on the weekly - some hope?
I don't do Fib. (or Elliot wave).

The 1165 (mine 1150) number is close to the resistance in 2004 and support in 2005. So that could be considered an important area.
The other support areas 1100 & 1050 but those are really weak so there is a lot of air below 1150
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Old 09-17-2008, 11:00 AM   #22
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i've noticed the chart pattern play out in the technicals as well


check out a 1 year chart of the SP500 and you'll see a H&S around the time of the March rally. the low point was at 1256 SP in February and the higher low came in a month later at a 1256 SP and the left shoulder was around late november 2007
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Old 09-17-2008, 11:38 AM   #23
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My magic 8 ball says "Not right now, ask again later."
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Old 09-17-2008, 11:55 AM   #24
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I'd put all my stock picks in the hands of CFB's Magic 8 Ball before I start buying into technical analysis for buyin points.......

Of course, if one can eloquently regale me with Elliot Wave theory or stochastics, I might get all warm and fuzzy........
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Old 09-17-2008, 12:13 PM   #25
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stochastics, macd and others are either averages or simple statistical formulas to measure the stock or market index price over a period of time. sometimes you get what are called divergences when the tech trend goes against the market trend. rule is if tech trend is up and market is down it's a buy signal. if the market trend it up and tech trend is down then it's a sell signal. Neither is 100%, but pretty close to 100% accurate. and depending on which you use there is some lag, sometimes months. different technical formulas are used for different time periods.

elliot wave is simple. everthing moves in 5 waves. 3 up and 2 down or the opposite i think. now if you can only figure out how to read it, although Robert Prechter and his team seem to be pretty good. i read their newsletter on safehaven with a week or so lag because i get it free that way and don't want to pay. they are very accurate in their predictions

ultimately it's a mathematical way to show mass psychology of greed, fear and a few smart people
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Old 09-17-2008, 03:20 PM   #26
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Milledgeville has fallen will Swainsboro hold, the rebels are not putting up much of a fight! Right down to about 1150 today. The the technical analysis buyers seem to be quickly swamped by sellers. If it goes under 1150, the TA crowd is not in for the long term and would add to the route. The suspense of the action is killing me....


This has nothing to do with technical analysis but as the 10 year returns on statements go to negative along with the 5 year and 1 year October could be a very poor month and a month for capitulation. 10 years ago today the S&P was as 1020. Five years ago 1036.
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Old 09-17-2008, 04:08 PM   #27
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Up unitil the mid 90's, the average annual growth of the S&P 500 appears to be 6.5% to 7%. Assuming a 7% growth rate, isn't the S&P currently priced about where it should be, relative to the January 1995 price?
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Old 09-18-2008, 12:05 PM   #28
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I notice that once the market broke 1150 as I expected today it is falling away quickly, despite the Fed's very aggresive action with the 200Billion market move.

I do believe far from Dex's and Al's analysis being useless data points, I do think they are important and to ignore this information, even if you think as I did that they will not hold, you are reducing the ability to make money in the market. The market showed it thought it was important as it stopped there yesterday at Al's and Dex's the day before and rapidly in both cases fell when it failed to hold.

And with this I look for 1150 to be where any rally should stop in the short term.
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Old 09-18-2008, 02:16 PM   #29
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As it turns out bottomed through and up and out! Wow!
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Old 09-18-2008, 02:34 PM   #30
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now all the naked short sellers will probably be in a mad dash to cover their bets and will push the market higher

on the downside research proves that 90% of the big up days like this happen in bear markets so don't be surprised if we drop a lot lower next year
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Old 09-18-2008, 03:49 PM   #31
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So I guess all the analysis didnt help predict the swing up. Lets hope for a replay tomorrow.
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Old 09-19-2008, 05:22 PM   #32
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Technical Analysis is for those who can't figure Numbers and do proper research on companies. The great thing about this type of analysis there is never any wrong situation, it can always be explained away by the graphs!
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Old 09-19-2008, 05:42 PM   #33
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There is a theory that the past rise from 2000 was a bear market rally and that this bear market will last into the twenty teens -2018 similar length to the rise.
"
Whose theory?
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Old 03-05-2009, 12:26 PM   #34
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we're getting close to a bottom here, question is if it's the real bottom or are we going to go lower in a year or so like in 1929 - 1932

i've read 2 schools of thought on this. first is that this is like 1929-1932 and we're going to have a big rally for 2009 and then go lower in 2010. second is that this bear market is like 1937 - 1938
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Old 03-05-2009, 02:28 PM   #35
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"we're getting close to a bottom here" You might be right ? However trying to pick it may lead to up or down. It is why I like buying good well researched companies and try and listen to the noise that is against popular thinking as it is sometimes right. I thought the US would crash in 2006 due to the Housing crisis, but I didn't think it would effect the rest of the world like it has, many did I wish I'd had the foresight to just listen a bit harder.
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Old 03-05-2009, 03:01 PM   #36
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i've also read that this crisis is very close to the Panic of 1873 which resulted in the Long Depression in the US which was worse than the 1929 Great Depression.

in the 1860's and early 1870's there was a housing bubble in Europe that spilled over to the US which was a developing nation at that time.
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Old 03-06-2009, 02:27 PM   #37
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Human nature we try to find similarities, so we feel we are in control. I think the reality was that for some reason we thought we had to do nothing to be productive ! Buy a house and watch it go up, buy stocks and watch them go up, create debt paper and watch it go up. Now until we find real value and start producing something useful again we'll be in the Sh**t. So for me I'm after companies that produce useful stuff, pay dividends , and don't have debt. I believe some day these will go up, trying to bottom pick is very hard.
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