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Ten+ Years Out
Old 03-07-2014, 07:38 AM   #1
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Ten+ Years Out

Follow up on some previous similar threads ( October 2010, 2013) with specifics.
Your Crystal Ball - Ten Years From Now?
The Next Ten Years - Crystal Ball
Though DW and I don't invest, movement in the markets DO affect us, and that means watching the commodities, products and services that are changing the face of the economy.
Right now... immediate future... as we travel the potholed roads of the midwest, it looks as if the Asphalt industry will be busy for some time, but that's not the kind of market movement that will necessarily be a driving force for the longer term.

It would be interesting to see what others see as major drivers of the economy in the longer term, as in the title.

Here are some subjects that look to me, as being longer term movers, along with a single short reason why.

- Infrastructure - Roads, Bridges, Water, Electric and Gas supply lines
- Water- Estimates of long term drought harm. Earliest recovery 4 to 6 years, maybe never
- Food - because of water, blight, increased exports
- Alternate transportation- Max use shared travel - Pivate vehicle grids
- Energy - Solar, wind, geothermal - as source costs balance out
- Education alternates- alternates to facilities based education at all levels-internet based, apprenticeships
- Centralized retail warehouses - ala Amazon
- Rare Mineral sources

- Healthcare - lower costs - economies of scale, reduced need for broad educational background as technology and lower skill levels required
- Pharma - shakeout due as studies show result based limitations and protections expire.
- Automotive Industry - alternate transportation (as above)
- Entertainment, Content production
- Military Industrial - unsustainable under any scenario
- Housing - overbuilt

Since I've guessed wrong since 2010, this might be a clue for contrarians.

Anyone wanna share some broad future guesses?
(may wanna check what you thought in the other threads)

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Old 03-07-2014, 08:15 AM   #2
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I am currently long "Burial plots" and think it has good upside potential and only 6 percent feet downside risk.

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Old 03-07-2014, 08:41 AM   #3
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I'll give it a shot - and this is my first post in the forums! I'm presently scripting my intro...

I agree with two of your upsides sectors: "Water" and "Energy". I would add "Financials" and "Technology" to this list myself. These four are my core sector beliefs.

Why not the others?

Infrastructure: there seems to be no real concern for the deteriorating state of our infrastructure(USA-centric). I see continued belts and suspenders approach deep into the future.

Food: heavily subsidized and unless they do away with farm subsidies the actual cost of producing food will never be realized. If subsidies do someday disappear, we will be looking at an even deeper economic crash than the recent housing bubble.

Education Alternatives: too narrow a sector to make any impact.

Warehouse Retail: I believe we’re approaching the apex of consolidation and margins will trim to razor thin.

Minerals: Interesting... I have don't have any insight here. So your guess is as good as mine.

Of the “Downside” sectors I have a hard time seeing “healthcare” and “pharma” not being huge growth sectors. But! There’s always a but… the true growth is in small take-over targets. The large will get larger and the small will continue to be the forefront of advancing useful health/pharma methodologies to be gobbled up by the large. Healthcare in 2nd and 3rd world countries will be the profit centers.

All the others, I too see only downside.

And lastly, I would add “Cyclicals” to the downside. My crystal ball grows foggy now and the last vision I see is of pretty young girl calling for someone named Auntie Em. Auntie Em.
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Old 03-07-2014, 04:04 PM   #4
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Organic Food - both grocery and dining out
Wine -
Craft Beer -
Auto parts - people keeping cars longer is a trend that will continue
Made in America - more foreign companies coming because of cheap energy
Marijuana - individual freedom
"The four most dangerous words in investing are 'This time it's different.'" - Sir John Templeton
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Old 03-07-2014, 04:11 PM   #5
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Originally Posted by NYEXPAT View Post
I am currently long "Burial plots" and think it has good upside potential and only 6 percent feet downside risk.
That reminds me of the sign outside a funeral home: "Please drive carefully. We can wait."
I heard the call to do nothing. So I answered it.
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Old 03-07-2014, 04:23 PM   #6
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I expect in 10 years I will say something like "it was so obvious, why didn't I see that 10 years ago"

Merrily, merrily, merrily, merrily,
Life is but a dream.
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