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08-26-2018, 08:47 AM
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#41
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Independence
Posts: 7,297
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^
! cool!
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"Be kind whenever possible. It is always possible." Dalai Lama
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08-26-2018, 09:29 AM
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#42
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: May 2014
Posts: 986
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I lived through 2000 and 2008. I remembered the news in those days were: "Everything in the world is bad, only the U.S. is good. And then, every sector is in trouble, only the housing market is a bright spot".
I am beginning to hear similar things.
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08-26-2018, 09:38 AM
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#43
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: May 2008
Posts: 6,506
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I am sure the bull... will run on forever from the financial papers and advisors.
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There must be moderation in everything, including moderation.
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08-26-2018, 10:28 AM
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#44
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Aug 2013
Posts: 1,972
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And I thought I was being an extreme contrarian, because everyone, including you, are saying the same thing - huge debts, taking profits early, global problems are getting worst ... heard exactly the same thing you were saying in 2013 - until now .. everyone is saying the bull market is about to end ... but the bull market keeps going up 5 years now since the doom and gloom. So, I'm contrarian .. by saying the bull market will keep going up for at least 10 more years. That's my contrarian statement, because everyone says NOT, including you. LOL
Quote:
Originally Posted by Oz investor
being both a 'baby boomer ' and a contrarian it should come as no surprise that i disagree , i see pensions being wound back 70 soon and 75 later
a lot a superannuation funds will be ghosts of what you expect , excessive fees and other charges and to ( very often ) compound that serial under-performance if there is a bond rout or stock market collapse watch the asset base and yields plummet .
i need to be in the market to force asset growth but i also take profit earlier than many .
there is a huge amount of global debt , there is no nice resolution to the massive debt obligations .
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__________________
No to consumerism, Living a simple life, enjoying the experience - not the material stuff
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08-26-2018, 10:36 AM
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#45
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Dec 2014
Posts: 670
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Really should have added a at the end there. Did not mean to sound cross.
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08-26-2018, 12:21 PM
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#46
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Dec 2015
Location: Vancouver
Posts: 915
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Quote:
Originally Posted by donheff
I didn't even read the article but when a lot of people start exclaiming that the longest bull market in decades will go on for another ten years I think irrational exuberance. Not that I will be changing anything in any event. Ten more years and I will definitely be flying first class.
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Point to note that the article refers to an ongoing secular bull market which is a longer term rise in the market which can contain multiple shorter term cyclical bull and bear markets.
__________________
Good Riddance. April 2022
"Yes, there's some shady stuff going down but it's fuelled by stupidity."
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08-26-2018, 04:59 PM
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#47
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Aug 2015
Posts: 179
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As boomers age they become more conservative. I think that’s a trend worth watching.
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08-26-2018, 06:18 PM
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#48
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Moderator Emeritus
Join Date: May 2007
Posts: 12,901
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I am rooting for that bull run to continue a while longer! The divorce is taking a bite out of my portfolio (and my lifestyle), so it would be awesome if I could quickly recover, financially at least.
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08-26-2018, 08:44 PM
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#49
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 35,712
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Quote:
Originally Posted by braumeister
Isn't that the same as saying my next coin flip will probably be tails because the last nine were heads?
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Quote:
Originally Posted by audreyh1
No.
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I will provide a bit of explanation on the difference. The market is a random process, same as a coin toss, but there are different kinds of random processes.
A coin does not remember its past, and would not know the last nine tosses were heads. On the other hand, the market does have memories, or states. It's the P/E, the growth of GDP, the interest rate, inflation rate, etc... The interaction between the moving parts is extremely complicated, not to mention other random influencing events such as election results, natural catastrophes, etc... But the market does have a reasonable expectation, else we would not talk about "reversion to the mean". Exactly when it reverts, that's the million-dollar question for everybody.
Back on the premise that the bull will continue for years, I don't count on it, but would not mind being pleasantly surprised.
Quote:
Originally Posted by flyingaway
I lived through 2000 and 2008. I remembered the news in those days were: "Everything in the world is bad, only the U.S. is good. And then, every sector is in trouble, only the housing market is a bright spot".
I am beginning to hear similar things.
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But but this time is different.
"Things are going great, and they're only getting better
The future's so bright, I gotta wear shades"
__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky (1879-1940)
"Those Who Can Make You Believe Absurdities Can Make You Commit Atrocities" - Voltaire (1694-1778)
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08-26-2018, 09:12 PM
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#50
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Jun 2018
Location: Brisbane
Posts: 855
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https://www.humanservices.gov.au/ind...lity/age-rules
From July 2017
Depending on your birthdate, from 1 July 2017 age pension age will be 65 years and 6 months.
After that, age pension age will go up 6 months every 2 years until 1 July 2023.
If your birthdate is you’ll be old enough at
1 July 1952 to 31 December 1953 65 years and 6 months
1 January 1954 to 30 June 1955 66 years
1 July 1955 to 31 December 1956 66 years and 6 months
From 1 January 1957 67 years
and this is in Australia .. the land that hasn't had a recession in 26 years ( if you believe the government )
apparently the economy is so great they have to cut costs to celebrate
the reality is we are the test dummies for international policies .
they claim Christianity but plot with witchcraft and smoke
__________________
i hold the Australian listed versions of AU ( Anglo Ashanti ) , BHP , and JHG .
You must learn from the mistakes of others. You can't possibly live long enough to make them all yourself.
Samuel Levenson
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08-26-2018, 09:48 PM
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#51
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Moderator Emeritus
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: New Orleans
Posts: 47,500
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Quote:
Originally Posted by beowulf
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+1000
__________________
Already we are boldly launched upon the deep; but soon we shall be lost in its unshored, harbourless immensities. - - H. Melville, 1851.
Happily retired since 2009, at age 61. Best years of my life by far!
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08-27-2018, 05:11 AM
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#52
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Washington, DC
Posts: 11,327
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 53anddone
As boomers age they become more conservative. I think that’s a trend worth watching.
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Not all of us. In fact, almost all the lefties I know from the 60s are still pretty much the same, albeit some of them a bit more affluent and self satisfied.
__________________
Idleness is fatal only to the mediocre -- Albert Camus
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08-27-2018, 05:42 AM
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#53
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gone traveling
Join Date: Mar 2015
Posts: 3,508
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cyber888
Saw an article and I agree the bull run will continue for awhile.. another 10 years or so perhaps.
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10 years?
Patterns are fun. Round numbers too.
What are you doing now to take advantage of your 10 year prediction? I assume you are 100% in stocks?
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08-27-2018, 08:47 AM
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#54
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Aug 2013
Location: North
Posts: 4,043
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If the unemployment rate wasn't at an all time low, I would worry. One thing that concerns me is the amount of consumer debt we have right now. It's dominoes right... people take there money out of the market for three reasons (that I know of)...
1. They need the money
2. Fear and Panic
3. RMD
I only worry about #1 and #2, and usually 1 is the driver of 2 even if uncorrelated. FOMO, or 'everyone is doing it mentality'. I almost don't even fear #2, because eventually those folks realize they are ACTUALLY missing out by being OUT of the market. Eventually if you pulled the money for fear and panic, you would look around and say, okay where else can I beat inflation...and back in goes the dough.
Okay maybe there is a #4, death.
__________________
Time > $$$ ~ 100% equities ~ FIRE @2031
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08-27-2018, 08:49 AM
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#55
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Moderator
Join Date: Oct 2010
Posts: 10,723
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NW-Bound
"Things are going great, and they're only getting better
The future's so bright, I gotta wear shades"
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I saw a live performance of this couple in grad school. Being an optimist, this really hit home with me.
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08-27-2018, 09:32 AM
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#56
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 35,712
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I was done with grad school in 1980, and missed this altogether. I only discovered this couple and their one-hit wonder a few years ago.
The song is actually sarcastic, as explained by Pat McDonald.
__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky (1879-1940)
"Those Who Can Make You Believe Absurdities Can Make You Commit Atrocities" - Voltaire (1694-1778)
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08-27-2018, 10:06 AM
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#57
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Oct 2016
Location: Pinetops
Posts: 521
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When I see thread starters like this - it simply reminds me that we are one day closer to the next "bear market."
The important thing is to recognize that I am comfortable with my investment allocation in any type of market.
I
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I
ER 12/15/2017
Now: Side Hustle(r) Extraordinaire
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08-27-2018, 10:13 AM
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#58
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Oct 2007
Posts: 798
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“people take there money out of the market for three reasons (that I know of)...
1. They need the money
2. Fear and Panic
3. RMD”
I agree with numbers 2 and 3, but #1, especially for posters on RE, is questionable. Lots of us are retired (not sure as to the percentage) and using our savings, including IRAs, has been part of our plan all along. We don’t “need” to travel, buy things we always wanted but couldn’t afford as we were in the savings mode, or just enjoy life to its fullest. Unless someone desires to enrich their children with a large inheritance, it’s a lot better to enjoy life while you have it. It’s sort of like Scrooge in the Christmas Carol - he was so obsessed with building and holding his own wealth that he avoided spending on anything until it was almost too late. If you’re not going to start spending down in your 60s or 70s, when will you? Sure, those who retired in their 30s, 40s and 50s may be in a different position, but I believe very early retirements are a small percentage of our posters. My view may be heresy to some here, but each to his or her own.
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Mission accomplished - not necessarily ER, but certainly R.
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08-27-2018, 10:55 AM
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#59
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Nov 2010
Location: Sarasota, FL & Vermont
Posts: 36,361
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kgtest
If the unemployment rate wasn't at an all time low, I would worry. One thing that concerns me is the amount of consumer debt we have right now. It's dominoes right... people take there money out of the market for three reasons (that I know of)...
1. They need the money
2. Fear and Panic
3. RMD
I only worry about #1 and #2, and usually 1 is the driver of 2 even if uncorrelated. FOMO, or 'everyone is doing it mentality'. I almost don't even fear #2, because eventually those folks realize they are ACTUALLY missing out by being OUT of the market. Eventually if you pulled the money for fear and panic, you would look around and say, okay where else can I beat inflation...and back in goes the dough.
Okay maybe there is a #4, death.
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#5 Rebalancing.... took some out just last week.
__________________
If something cannot endure laughter.... it cannot endure.
Patience is the art of concealing your impatience.
Slow and steady wins the race.
Retired Jan 2012 at age 56
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08-27-2018, 11:00 AM
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#60
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Cooksburg,PA
Posts: 1,873
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Choices
What financial beanstalk? Where did you get the beans? Will,it grow in Vermont or ...I can move, no problem.
What haven’t I heard of this before? Why have you guys been holding out on me? Is it because I raise chickens?
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Oh no. Now the word is out. Now even chicken raisers from Vermont will want in on the action.
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Free to canoe
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