Join Early Retirement Today
Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
The Silver Bubble
Old 04-24-2011, 10:48 AM   #1
Recycles dryer sheets
John Galt III's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2008
Posts: 472
The Silver Bubble

Where do you think silver is going in the next 12 months? I think it is going way up, but I have not bought any yet. I would buy into an ETF, like SLV or SLW if I were to "get in on the action".

From what I have read on the internet, the pressure upwards in silver is from Joe Sixpacks who are afraid of hyperinflation, and who think there is more upside in silver than gold.
__________________

__________________
John Galt III is offline   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Old 04-24-2011, 11:45 AM   #2
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Feb 2007
Posts: 5,075
Who knows. You tell me: what is the fair value of an ounce of silver? What is it really worth? [Not including speculation]

I have avoided gold and silver because once one gets past the intrinsic value of what is can be used for (real demand).... Industrial, electronics, jewelry... The rest is was speculation.. a hedge for other assets. I think it has headed into momentum territory... people think it will keep going up.

Too much like gambling for me to put down my money... especially now!

Of course all of us that did not invest bet on in gold and silver are jealous!


Had I invested in it earlier, I would be taking some profit.... maybe cashing out.

If I were going to get into it now... it would a gamble based on the big MO (greater fool) with a targeted exit strategy (upside and downside). I am not sure there is anyway to know the top when the herd will be spooked and every body runs for the exit.
__________________

__________________
chinaco is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-24-2011, 07:03 PM   #3
Recycles dryer sheets
dtbach's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2011
Location: Madison
Posts: 400
Quote:
Originally Posted by chinaco View Post
Who knows. You tell me: what is the fair value of an ounce of silver? What is it really worth? [Not including speculation]

I have avoided gold and silver because once one gets past the intrinsic value of what is can be used for (real demand).... Industrial, electronics, jewelry... The rest is was speculation.. a hedge for other assets. I think it has headed into momentum territory... people think it will keep going up.

Too much like gambling for me to put down my money... especially now!

Of course all of us that did not invest bet on in gold and silver are jealous!


Had I invested in it earlier, I would be taking some profit.... maybe cashing out.

If I were going to get into it now... it would a gamble based on the big MO (greater fool) with a targeted exit strategy (upside and downside). I am not sure there is anyway to know the top when the herd will be spooked and every body runs for the exit.
+1 My niece asked me if Gold was a good investment now. I said, well since every sales clerk and cashier is highly recommending it now, I'd say the bubble is pretty damn near at the breaking point.
__________________
dtbach is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-24-2011, 08:23 PM   #4
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Sep 2009
Location: Hong Kong
Posts: 1,310
My original investment case in buying silver was belief that global demand may have been outstripping supply and, even if it wasn't, growth in use for technology and medical devices might eventually replace, if not exceed, the consumption lost with the decline of film based photography. Both propositions were, at best, uncertain - the former because my research turned up a limited number of inconsistent data sources and the latter because any prediction about the future is uncertain. The exectation that it would provide some diversification benefit was also there.

I did not buy into the much touted conspiracy theories about the price being manipulated downwards.

I have no idea where silver will go from here but it's been hard to resist the instinct to take the money and run since it went past US$30 per oz. I suspect I will cave fairly soon.

Now, if only I'd wagered a more meaningful amount of money.
__________________
Budgeting is a skill practised by people who are bad at politics.
traineeinvestor is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-24-2011, 10:00 PM   #5
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 8,712
I have to admit that I put in about 1.4% of my money into silver at the end of last year.... I just saw that there is a lot of "MO" as some people say... and there a big disparity between the price of silver and of gold... IOW, the historical factor would make silver $50 per ounce based on gold prices... so I went there instead of gold...


Now, up 40% and it is getting a lot closer to my upper end... I will probably trim my holdings a bit by taking out 'profits' and letting the beginning balance ride... but since I am not a gold/silver nut I will get out if I see the bubble starting to burst... I learned my lesson during dot com (even though I did not invest that much in them... the whole market took a big hit.. I think silver and gold will also)....
__________________
Texas Proud is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-24-2011, 11:22 PM   #6
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
MooreBonds's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: St. Louis
Posts: 1,301
Quote:
Originally Posted by Texas Proud View Post
but since I am not a gold/silver nut I will get out if I see the bubble starting to burst... I learned my lesson during dot com (even though I did not invest that much in them... the whole market took a big hit.. I think silver and gold will also)....
Just trying to be a bit of the Devil's Advocate....but what criteria will you use to determine that the bubble has indeed burst and it's not just a short-term pause before more run-ups? Going down 30%?

Think about selling it all now, and then ask yourself "would I be more mad at myself for making 40% on my money now by selling out, then watching it go up another 30% before bursting.....or will I be more mad at myself for letting it ride another 20% rise before dropping 40% and calling the bubble over and selling at that point, which may be lower than where it is now."
__________________
Dryer sheets Schmyer sheets
MooreBonds is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 04-24-2011, 11:51 PM   #7
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Sep 2009
Location: Hong Kong
Posts: 1,310
Quote:
Originally Posted by MooreBonds View Post
Think about selling it all now, and then ask yourself "would I be more mad at myself for making 40% on my money now by selling out, then watching it go up another 30% before bursting.....or will I be more mad at myself for letting it ride another 20% rise before dropping 40% and calling the bubble over and selling at that point, which may be lower than where it is now."

Although this wasn't directed at me, since I'm also in the position of deciding whether to hold or sell all or sell part, I think I'd kick myself a lot more if I held and it dropped back to $30 per oz than if I sold and it continued up to $60 per oz.
__________________
Budgeting is a skill practised by people who are bad at politics.
traineeinvestor is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-25-2011, 06:44 AM   #8
Recycles dryer sheets
VaCollector's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2007
Posts: 488
As a coin collector, I felt that BOTH gold and silver were undervalued 10 +/- years ago and so bought collectible coins at or near melt value ~ $300 (gold); $3 (silver).

While I have kept several pieces around to trade for bread during the coming apocalypse , I sold most of my holdings when silver hit $30 an ounce.

While I am saddened that I could not pick the top and/or see $50/ounce silver, it did MUCH BETTER than my BAC investment AND I really have no regrets......although I must admit to contemplating the sale of the balance of my holdings as the price continues to rise!
__________________
VaCollector is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-25-2011, 09:34 AM   #9
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 5,421
Quote:
Originally Posted by VaCollector View Post
As a coin collector, I felt that BOTH gold and silver were undervalued 10 +/- years ago and so bought collectible coins at or near melt value ~ $300 (gold); $3 (silver).

While I have kept several pieces around to trade for bread during the coming apocalypse , I sold most of my holdings when silver hit $30 an ounce.

While I am saddened that I could not pick the top and/or see $50/ounce silver, it did MUCH BETTER than my BAC investment AND I really have no regrets......although I must admit to contemplating the sale of the balance of my holdings as the price continues to rise!
I dabbled in collecting gold and silver. Got in around where you did (Gold at $300-350 and silver around $5). Sold recently when gold was around $1350-1400, silver around $30. Clearly a little early on silver, but hey, I made a nice profit and don't have to worry about it. I say bubble, but I also just missed out on a 50% run up. So take my thoughts for what they are worth!
__________________
Recently retired at 33. Loving it so far! Wife is still working for ~1 year. I'm secretly just a stay at home dad with 3 kids (1, 7, and 8) but don't tell anyone.

Money is the Root of All Good.
FUEGO is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-25-2011, 09:42 AM   #10
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
MasterBlaster's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 4,164
Evidently fine wine is also undergoing price escalation. See the Liv-ex 500 wine index below...

This might be a good investment, but if not you can always liquidate it yourself.



Quote:
The Liv-ex 500 Fine Wine Index is the broadest based of the Liv-ex indices and is designed to reflect price trends in the wider fine wine market. Unlike the Liv-ex 100, any commonly traded wine is eligible, meaning popular wines from Bordeaux that don’t fit the more stringent Liv-ex 100 criteria are included. The majority of the index consists of Bordeaux wines – a reflection of the overall market – although it also includes wines from Burgundy, the Rhone, Champagne, Port, Italy and the New World.
The index consists of only the most recent vintages (nine in the case of red Bordeaux, five for all other regions) for each of the wines in the index. The 2007 vintage is currently the most recent, with the 2008s due to be added in January 2011. This gives us an index that reflects the stock a general merchant would be holding.
__________________
MasterBlaster is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-25-2011, 10:16 AM   #11
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
martyb's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: Bossier City
Posts: 1,924
I'm currently selling off my silver, but not all at once. Just a few coins here & there. I don't really have all that much left, maybe another $1000 worth or so. I'm just selling it on ebay, where the market is pretty good, and full of zealous buyers!
__________________
martyb is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-25-2011, 10:24 AM   #12
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 8,712
Quote:
Originally Posted by MooreBonds View Post
Just trying to be a bit of the Devil's Advocate....but what criteria will you use to determine that the bubble has indeed burst and it's not just a short-term pause before more run-ups? Going down 30%?

Think about selling it all now, and then ask yourself "would I be more mad at myself for making 40% on my money now by selling out, then watching it go up another 30% before bursting.....or will I be more mad at myself for letting it ride another 20% rise before dropping 40% and calling the bubble over and selling at that point, which may be lower than where it is now."

I am using the ratio of gold etc... so I think it will run to $50 and beyond... as I said, I will probably take out my current profits and let the initial investment ride a bit... more of a rebalance than anything...

Just looked... silver is almost $48, so I do not have long to go...

To answer your devil advocate question... I would rather keep it and have it go down (even if less than today) than sell right now... I do not see anything else where I can put the money that looks good (this is my play money...)

No reason not to profit on the irrational exuberance here...
__________________
Texas Proud is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-25-2011, 10:30 AM   #13
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
martyb's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: Bossier City
Posts: 1,924
I've been selling & putting the proceeds into my Roth IRA's.
__________________
martyb is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-25-2011, 07:13 PM   #14
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
packrat44's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: near Canadian border and near Mexican border
Posts: 1,127
After the Easter holiday, the Chinese went on a buying spree and kicked the price of silver up again. When the Indian market opened the price spiked higher than when the Hunt brothers (with their Saudi friends) tried to corner the market in 1980. Later when the US market opened there was heavy profit taking and the price retreated to that of last Thursday.

The Chinese and Indians like their silver physically in their possession while in the US most like their silver in the form paper. The question is: who is going to be the winner, the Chinese and Indians or the US.

It will be interesting to see if the Chinese and Indians are still heavy buyers and will again push the price higher when their market opens on Tuesday..
__________________
Pigs get fat, hogs get slaughtered. That's my story and I am sticking to it.
packrat44 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-26-2011, 07:51 AM   #15
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
packrat44's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: near Canadian border and near Mexican border
Posts: 1,127
Quote:
Originally Posted by packrat44 View Post
It will be interesting to see if the Chinese and Indians are still heavy buyers and will again push the price higher when their market opens on Tuesday..
It appears the Japanese and Chinese were sellers on Tuesday but the East Indians were still buyers.

Is $46 the new support level for Ag?
__________________
Pigs get fat, hogs get slaughtered. That's my story and I am sticking to it.
packrat44 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-26-2011, 08:54 AM   #16
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 8,712
Quote:
Originally Posted by packrat44 View Post
It appears the Japanese and Chinese were sellers on Tuesday but the East Indians were still buyers.

Is $46 the new support level for Ag?

Not sure.... I had $50 in mind.... but, I did sell out my mom's position and about 1/3 rd of mine...


I will put in a stop order in case this is the bubble busting... but will ride it out if others want to bid it up...
__________________
Texas Proud is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-26-2011, 09:47 AM   #17
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
martyb's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: Bossier City
Posts: 1,924
What No, it can't be the bubble bursting yet...I still have some coins to sell! Gotta get busy tonight.
__________________
martyb is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-26-2011, 09:51 AM   #18
Moderator
ziggy29's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: Texas
Posts: 14,323
Quote:
Originally Posted by packrat44 View Post
The Chinese and Indians like their silver physically in their possession while in the US most like their silver in the form paper. The question is: who is going to be the winner, the Chinese and Indians or the US.
One of the interesting things to watch is the "premium" that one has to pay in order to buy physical silver bullion compared to the spot price of "paper" silver. When it was really hitting the fan in late 2008 and early 2009, the "premium" was something like $10 per ounce even when silver was only at around $20. In other words, people were choosing to pay $30 for an ounce of physical silver they could hold instead of $20 for an ounce of silver through a silver ETF (i.e. a 50% premium for the physical metal). After it settled down and it appeared the worst case total collapse was averted, the premium was considerably lower.

I think this premium is a pretty good indicator of an "apocalyptic sentiment index", as the worst people think it will hit the fan, the less they will trust the paper silver to deliver on its promise.
__________________
"Hey, for every ten dollars, that's another hour that I have to be in the work place. That's an hour of my life. And my life is a very finite thing. I have only 'x' number of hours left before I'm dead. So how do I want to use these hours of my life? Do I want to use them just spending it on more crap and more stuff, or do I want to start getting a handle on it and using my life more intelligently?" -- Joe Dominguez (1938 - 1997)
ziggy29 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-26-2011, 10:49 AM   #19
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
MasterBlaster's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 4,164
Quote:
It's getting ridiculous. Here are six good reasons this is a mania

6 Signs the Silver Market Has Gone Nuts - SmartMoney.com
__________________
MasterBlaster is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-26-2011, 10:55 AM   #20
Moderator
ziggy29's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: Texas
Posts: 14,323
Quote:
Originally Posted by MasterBlaster View Post
From the article:

Quote:
But if silver is a good thing, then gold is also a good thing. What on earth is a case for silver that excludes gold? It doesn't make sense.
It's not as nonsensical as it appears. Silver is much more heavily used as an industrial commodity than gold. As a result one would expect not only the "hedge against Armageddon" appreciation one seeks in hard assets, but also the same type of speculation on economic recovery as we see in the oil market. Gold, on the other hand, is as likely to go *down* when the economy and markets seem to be stabilizing or improving.

Gold is more a pure play on the fears of apocalypse and devaluation of currency. Silver adds the "industrial commodity" aspect that gold mostly lacks.
__________________

__________________
"Hey, for every ten dollars, that's another hour that I have to be in the work place. That's an hour of my life. And my life is a very finite thing. I have only 'x' number of hours left before I'm dead. So how do I want to use these hours of my life? Do I want to use them just spending it on more crap and more stuff, or do I want to start getting a handle on it and using my life more intelligently?" -- Joe Dominguez (1938 - 1997)
ziggy29 is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Asset Allocation of Gold or Silver laune75 Young Dreamers 17 12-14-2010 08:10 PM
Is there a silver lining in Ag? packrat44 FIRE and Money 2 08-30-2007 10:07 AM
Gold and silver coins FinallyRetired FIRE and Money 3 04-18-2007 03:53 PM
best gold and silver funds newyorklady FIRE and Money 22 03-02-2007 07:39 PM
Silver market cracked this morning brewer12345 FIRE and Money 20 04-21-2006 09:53 PM

 

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 10:53 PM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2014, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.

Early Retirement News right to your Email!

Stay up-to-date with all the latest news to your inbox!

unsusbcribe at anytime with one click

Close [X]