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Old 09-23-2015, 08:24 AM   #61
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The older cars are not using SCR and there may not be an easy fix for those cars. Those may be bought back by VW and the owner's compensated. This is the thinking here in the U.S. (TDI Club members). This is speculation right now.
Buying the cars back would sure be expensive. Maybe VW will offer to compensate owners for diminished value (thus making them whole) and also pay for installation and maintenance of pollution control devices on some other sources of particulates (fixed power plants, etc) that will theoretically reduce total particulates to the level they would have been if the cars polluted at the allowed level (this compensating for the environmental damage these cars will continue to cause).

The only parties then left uncompensated are the other car companies who played by the rules and lost business to VW. Don't expect any government effort to fix that.

It remains to be seen how compliance with the fixes will be verified (owners obviously have an incentive not to get it done if it decreases mileage/performance). I'd guess that the feds might cut highway funds/etc to states that don't set up a mechanism to deny registrations to vehicles that haven't been neutered fixed by a VW dealer. That wouldn't stop owners from having them changed back on their own dime.

If the "fixes" to engine computer controls bring down mileage in order to meet NOX targets, it means the car is burning more fuel and possibly producing more of other emissions. Even if the other emissions are within the EPA limits, the overall result could be a net decrease in air quality. I hope somebody is studying those tradeoffs, but I doubt we'll do anything that nuanced.

Silver lining: This may point out to the public the tradeoffs in performance, economy, and other pollutants that result from our present pollution control approach. Maybe we'll see some changes.
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Old 09-23-2015, 08:29 AM   #62
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Waiting for someone to blame the the Patriots........
Hmmmm, does Robert Kraft have any large interest in VW stock? This could be like the Kevin Bacon game. Try to link anything and everything to the Pats
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Old 09-23-2015, 08:44 AM   #63
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Outright fraud, not looking good to the VW empire.
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Old 09-23-2015, 09:11 AM   #64
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At least in CA, once a recall is issued CARB won't pass vehicles without emissions-related recall(s) applied. Apparently, they will get a list of VINs from VW so they will be able to identify vehicles without it and deny the ability to register or re-register it.
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Old 09-23-2015, 09:39 AM   #65
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In an ultimate hubris, VW apparently has grabbed 51 million in government environmental credits for making diesel engines in the US which "exceeded" US government minimums, for purchasers of their cars.!!

Taxpayers wasted $51 million on VW diesel credits
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Old 09-23-2015, 10:27 AM   #66
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We're now leaning toward the Mazda 3. Everybody we know that has one says they get much higher mileage than what's on the sticker. If anybody knows anything bad about them I'd be interested.
I love mine! My 2015 hatchback is getting about 31mpg on my commute (So Cal traffic), but I got 42mpg on a road trip where I was on an interstate using cruise control most of the way. That beats our Ford C-Max Hybrid for that type of driving, though the C-Max is definitely superior for stop-and-go driving.

If I had to give a negative ... the door pockets are oddly shaped and hard to use. They're sleeves that will only hold a bottle of water. I was used to putting misc papers, sunglasses, my work badge, etc in the drivers door pocket on my old car and all that stuff now has to go somewhere else and I keep forgetting where I put things.
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Old 09-23-2015, 10:36 AM   #67
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Sure hope this doesn't cause the CEO to resign....ooops , too late.
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Old 09-23-2015, 10:42 AM   #68
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Sure hope this doesn't cause the CEO to resign....ooops , too late.
You should have spoken up sooner.
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Old 09-23-2015, 10:53 AM   #69
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I did read an article (do not have it now) that said that states could easily determine if a vehicle did not get the fix and not let it get re-registered...


I do not think that any offset should be done... fix the cars... and if you cannot fix them, take them off the roads...

I am not concerned with making it easy on a company that committed fraud... not something that came up later, but was designed to do the fraud...

Some might think it is the same when a car company tries to hide a defect... like the sudden acceleration or the key problem... to me that is not as bad... those were problems that arose after going on the market, not one put in specifically by the company....
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Old 09-23-2015, 11:09 AM   #70
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Some might think it is the same when a car company tries to hide a defect... like the sudden acceleration or the key problem... to me that is not as bad... those were problems that arose after going on the market, not one put in specifically by the company....
I think it's only as bad, or worse, when people are killed from the result of "defect". Weren't people killed from GM's ignition switch cover up?

Not defending VW here, and they did wrong, very wrong, but no one has died from the re-code switch. All they did was fraudulently violate the U.S. emission standards testing protocol for that class of vehicle.

For those no knowing the whole story, here is a guide to "Diesel-Gate":

http://jalopnik.com/your-guide-to-di...g-c-1731857018
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Old 09-23-2015, 11:21 AM   #71
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The internal investigation at VW is complete, and the corporate communications officer spoke about the issue at a press conference today.





RIP John Banner. Long gone, A truly good man
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Old 09-23-2015, 12:30 PM   #72
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Not defending VW here, and they did wrong, very wrong, but no one has died from the re-code switch.
I wouldn't be surprised if people died, and that others were sickened as a result of this VW fraud. People do die of respiratory problems made worse by higher NOx levels, and there's no doubt these cars contributed to increasing those levels. Figuring out the exact mortality/morbidity would be a good subject for an epidemiological study. I sure don't think we can say now that VW's fraud didn't kill anybody, and it's possible the number will be higher (but less directly attributable on an individual case basis) than more well-known instances of safety-related auto defects.
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Old 09-23-2015, 12:41 PM   #73
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VW's cheating might end up making consumers avoid diesel cars:


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VW's cheat may throw doubt into consumers' minds as to whether any diesel car is actually providing the benefits its manufacturer claims, but Boehman noted that consumers really have no recourse except to "rely on the EPA to validate the emissions of the vehicles."

For Volkswagen owners, the scandal is only growing bigger. On Tuesday, VW said the software at the center of the emissions scandal is fitted in 11 million of its cars across the globe. The automaker had previously said the software was installed in 482,000 passenger cars sold in the U.S.
​Will VW's emissions scandal burn diesel cars? - CBS News

You know, as in one rotten apple spoils the bunch.
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Old 09-23-2015, 01:47 PM   #74
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I wouldn't be surprised if people died, and that others were sickened as a result of this VW fraud. People do die of respiratory problems made worse by higher NOx levels, and there's no doubt these cars contributed to increasing those levels. Figuring out the exact mortality/morbidity would be a good subject for an epidemiological study. I sure don't think we can say now that VW's fraud didn't kill anybody, and it's possible the number will be higher (but less directly attributable on an individual case basis) than more well-known instances of safety-related auto defects.
The amount of excess NOx put out by these cars over the period on non-compliance is minuscule compared to the other NOx sources in the U.S that are emitting on an ongoing basis, some on a constant basis. So directly attributing a death to the subject emissions is a challenge for sure.

If human harm were suspect, or alleged, the NHTSA organization would be involved like they were with GM (actual deaths) and Toyota (unintended acceleration issues, and deaths).

In any event, no direct (or indirect) loss of human life has been alleged as of yet. That may change as Dieselgate moves along.
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Old 09-23-2015, 02:58 PM   #75
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I think it's only as bad, or worse, when people are killed from the result of "defect". Weren't people killed from GM's ignition switch cover up?

Not defending VW here, and they did wrong, very wrong, but no one has died from the re-code switch. All they did was fraudulently violate the U.S. emission standards testing protocol for that class of vehicle.

For those no knowing the whole story, here is a guide to "Diesel-Gate":

Your Guide To Dieselgate: Volkswagen's Diesel Cheating Catastrophe*

I am not saying that the deaths are not a tragedy.... and I agree that a cover up is pretty bad... but the GM problem was errors that came to light after the fact... it is not like (IIRC) the Pinto where they decided not to put in a $5 part knowing that there would be a number of deaths but the cost was 'manageable'....


I think VW will have problems with consumers for decades to come.... people remember these things....

I would be interested in a diesel, but the price for one is just too high compared to the ICE.... kinda like the hybrid....
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Old 09-23-2015, 03:12 PM   #76
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I wouldn't be surprised if people died, and that others were sickened as a result of this VW fraud. People do die of respiratory problems made worse by higher NOx levels, and there's no doubt these cars contributed to increasing those levels. Figuring out the exact mortality/morbidity would be a good subject for an epidemiological study. I sure don't think we can say now that VW's fraud didn't kill anybody, and it's possible the number will be higher (but less directly attributable on an individual case basis) than more well-known instances of safety-related auto defects.
That's a huge stretch, IMO. How would anybody ever know if it was VW exhaust that caused somebody to die? Versus healthily jogging down a busy road, which I've always likened to smoking cigars while running. The exhaust probably didn't bother the drivers, since it was coming out behind them, even when idling. And I can guarantee you getting stuck behind a school bus is far less healthy, but nobody is suing the school system or Blue-Bird for it. So, yes, fine and sue them into bankruptcy, they deserve it. But do it for real things like fraud.
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Old 09-23-2015, 03:14 PM   #77
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The amount of excess NOx put out by these cars over the period on non-compliance is minuscule compared to the other NOx sources in the U.S that are emitting on an ongoing basis, some on a constant basis. So directly attributing a death to the subject emissions is a challenge for sure.
There's little doubt that the exhaust from diesel cars causes deaths. Over 9000 Californians per year die prematurely due to pollution from all burning of diesel fuel (source). So, if the extra emissions caused by these VW cars (which reportedly produced up to 80 times the allowable emissions in certain situations) amounted to just 1/2 of 1% of the diesel pollutants in that state, and if the marginal number of deaths would have been reduced proportionately to that reduction in pollution, 45 people died every year who would have lived longer had VW cars actually met the emissions requirements. And these cars were sold for 7 years, their numbers increasing every year, so the deaths aren't limited to a single year. That's in California only-- how many across the whole US? And how many worldwide--assuming the cheating was done there, and cars didn't really meet local limits in actual driving conditions (lots more of these cars were sold outside the US than within our borders)?

The GM ignition switch defect reportedly resulted in payment for 124 early deaths in the US. It's not out of the realm of possibility that VW caused as many or more deaths and morbidity with this deliberate fraud. But we'll probably know a lot more when better analysis is possible.

We should also consider that the people who bought these VWs might have bought a non-diesel car if the mileage and performance of the VWs hadn't been juiced by the cheating. There are many who believe the negative impact of the particulate matter and NOx in diesel exhaust are much more damaging to human health than the exhaust from a similar gasoline-powered vehicle. If true, all the "extra" drivers of VW diesel cars, who would have bought gasoline cars if the honest numbers had been published, also drove up the toll.
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Old 09-23-2015, 03:22 PM   #78
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How would anybody ever know if it was VW exhaust that caused somebody to die?
No individual victim (or heir) could prove that VW diesel exhaust led to their death. But, the question was whether this fraud caused deaths, and I think in the aggregate it's likely that it did.

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So, yes, fine and sue them into bankruptcy, they deserve it. But do it for real things like fraud.
But part of the process of determining the appropriate penalty for the fraud is the amount of damage done. If people died (earlier than they otherwise would have) because of these VW diesels, even if the number is an aggregate and no particular individual victim can be directly linked to VW exhaust, then the penalty for the fraud can be expected to be higher.
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Old 09-23-2015, 03:33 PM   #79
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I think VW will have problems with consumers for decades to come.... people remember these things....

I would be interested in a diesel, but the price for one is just too high compared to the ICE.... kinda like the hybrid....
I agree, people won't forget this fraud.....for years. This will be my last diesel car (I have had 5 diesel VWs and one 1981 GM diesel car). I love the current car (2014 Passat), but I see issues down the road if the emissions fix I suspect will be applied, comes to fruition.

It's my feeling the fraud (test switch mapping code) was conceived to cover the durability of the emission control components (catalyst, particulate filter, EGR, etc) as owners (like me) have seen numerous failures of these components in less that 80K miles (federal emissions warranty period). I believe VW has to prove durability of the emission components to 100K miles in the testing protocols and that may have been why the emissions system was "relaxed" to less than optimum when in driving mode (resulting in increased NOx and less thermal load on the emissions components). This is my opinion and the it's same opinion of several long term members of the TDI Club, an international forum of VW owners) which I have been active in since 2005.

Interestingly, several diesels that have been successful in recent years passing EPA's Tier 2 Bin 5 limits have installed NOx controls that include both SCR and a lean NOX reduction (LNT - non-DEF treatment system) working together. This is a very expensive approach to NOx control and both BMW and Mercedes are using it, but the equipment and maintenance cost per car is very high.

It's also my opinion that VW decided to use one or the other emissions treatment systems to keep costs competitive with the competition: the run of the mill cars (Toyota, Chevorlet, etc). This may have been in concert with their goal to sell 800,000 cars in the US by 2017. VW probably thought dropping the diesel line in the US was a negative since it accounted for 25% of their sales and elected to do as they did. Plus, they had agreed to build a new assembly plant in Chattanooga, TN for the redesigned 2012 Passat, which had no diesel engine sales in the US since 2005, and customers were clamoring for a diesel in the full size Passat.

So now they have their @$$ in a big sling and 2/3 or the modern world is looking for a piece of their bank account. It's going to be a long road for the new CEO to dig out of this one.

Putting the diesels aside, the gasoline engine offerings from VW are quite nice and they should sell well.
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Old 09-23-2015, 03:58 PM   #80
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There's little doubt that the exhaust from diesel cars causes deaths. Over 9000 Californians per year die prematurely due to pollution from all burning of diesel fuel (source). So, if the extra emissions caused by these VW cars (which reportedly produced up to 80 times the allowable emissions in certain situations) amounted to just 1/2 of 1% of the diesel pollutants in that state, and if the marginal number of deaths would have been reduced proportionately to that reduction in pollution, 45 people died every year who would have lived longer had VW cars actually met the emissions requirements. And these cars were sold for 7 years, their numbers increasing every year, so the deaths aren't limited to a single year. That's in California only-- how many across the whole US? And how many worldwide--assuming the cheating was done there, and cars didn't really meet local limits in actual driving conditions (lots more of these cars were sold outside the US than within our borders)?

The GM ignition switch defect reportedly resulted in payment for 124 early deaths in the US. It's not out of the realm of possibility that VW caused as many or more deaths and morbidity with this deliberate fraud. But we'll probably know a lot more when better analysis is possible.

We should also consider that the people who bought these VWs might have bought a non-diesel car if the mileage and performance of the VWs hadn't been juiced by the cheating. There are many who believe the negative impact of the particulate matter and NOx in diesel exhaust are much more damaging to human health than the exhaust from a similar gasoline-powered vehicle. If true, all the "extra" drivers of VW diesel cars, who would have bought gasoline cars if the honest numbers had been published, also drove up the toll.
All good and thanks for the analysis. I suspect that NHTSA will step forward with a charge/penalty against VW when they count up the dead bodies.
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