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Old 09-27-2015, 09:44 AM   #161
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Wouldn't the management be curious as to how their engineers were able to achieve such superior performance than their peers (MBZ, BMW, etc.), at least to reward them for their intelligence?
Bernie Madoff was able to achieve consistent positive returns even during the melt down, some people were wondering how, the feeder funds who benefited from the inflow of funds never wanted to ask the question.
The CEO claimed no knowledge? How about other car manufacturers, were they not curious as to how VW achieved the result or they believed that VW engineers were so superior?



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Old 09-27-2015, 09:46 AM   #162
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I scanned this entire thread and maybe I missed it on here but somewhere there is some comment about SEC violations if VW admitted to EPA that they cheated without publicly disclosing this info that is material to their stock price.
That was mentioned in some publications I read over the last few days. The Germans are on to that point also. I suspect VW will face that issue up the road.
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Old 09-27-2015, 09:46 AM   #163
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To pick just one element of your POV. If EVs only add demand, there's no electricity used to refine gasoline? I'll let you do your own search, and your own "math."
I've seen that claim before, and I've seen it debunked - with math, and data from verifiable sources.

IIRC, there simply isn't enough electricity generated on the refinery grids to justify that number. Can you back up the claim with numbers, not just a diagram that says "I said so"?

You didn't answer my question about marginal power, you diverted to another topic (kWh to refine gasoline). And used the strategy you accused me of - that you can find stuff on the internet to support any view. So show us the backup data//numbers/logic to your claim.

I have some personal business to deal with, so may not get around to digging up those links and numbers until later, maybe you or someone else will get to it before I do.

I never said the Tesla owners are not intelligent. But some of them are 'believers', and hard to reason with, and some don't care about the environment, they bought it for performance (which is fine). If you go back to that long thread, you'll see that clifp, for one, did accept my data after I explained it. My challenges stood up to his challenges.

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Old 09-27-2015, 09:51 AM   #164
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Wouldn't the management be curious as to how their engineers were able to achieve such superior performance than their peers (MBZ, BMW, etc.), at least to reward them for their intelligence?
...........................
How about other car manufacturers, were they not curious as to how VW achieved the result or they believed that VW engineers were so superior?

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It is surprising that VW cars equipped with essentially one half the emissions systems that MBZ and BMW have in their cars met the standards and bragged about it. (MBZ and BMW use a combination of LNT and SCR emission control technology in their recent diesels while VW used EITHER LNT or SCR in their cars)

I would think that VW senior management would also have been curious how that could have been achieved over the methods used by other competitors.
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Old 09-27-2015, 09:53 AM   #165
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That's exactly the scenario I outlined in my post #95. It's common to have these options available in complex code for debug and evaluation. And they don't really have to 'make their way' into the final code - they leave them there for future use and debugging, and for future versions - that's just how it is done. They don;t take them out and then put them back in later, they are part of the code. JoeWras, who worked directly on embedded sw (I worked with the people who wrote the code, one step removed), agreed with that observation.

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This premise makes sense except having the steering input to trigger the response represents a level of intent beyond simply forgetting to toggle the override in the final version of the software. I believe this would have been found and fixed much sooner. Also, I think VW would have quickly used this as an excuse but they appear to have admitted the issue did not occur accidentally.
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Old 09-27-2015, 10:04 AM   #166
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I scanned this entire thread and maybe I missed it on here but somewhere there is some comment about SEC violations if VW admitted to EPA that they cheated without publicly disclosing this info that is material to their stock price.
I posted some question about it... my thinking is that this should be considered material and reported... and it does not seem like it was...


Now we know that they knew over a year ago... I would think that they probably issued bonds during that time... the question is did they do so in the US market since German interest rates are lower than in the US...

Still, I think it should have been reported...

(read a later post noting they did read an article about this)
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Old 09-27-2015, 10:06 AM   #167
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This premise makes sense except having the steering input to trigger the response represents a level of intent beyond simply forgetting to toggle the override in the final version of the software. I believe this would have been found and fixed much sooner. Also, I think VW would have quickly used this as an excuse but they appear to have admitted the issue did not occur accidentally.
?

I don't think we are communicating. I never said there was any 'forgetting', or any 'accident'. The code is there, it is always there.

A separate module, that might be built in at the very last stage and known to only a small group, does the detection, and re-setting of some flags when it detects the standard test. That would be very intentional and controlled. But the lower level coders would be totally unaware of it.

edit/add: And if VW tried to claim it was an oversight - once they 'fixed' it, their cars would fail the standard test. They'd be in the same boat, but maybe avoid the deceit charges.

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Old 09-27-2015, 10:16 AM   #168
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To pick just one element of your POV. If EVs only add demand, there's no electricity used to refine gasoline? I'll let you do your own search, and your own "math." ....
As I said, I have limited time now, but here's a start for you - and this information is what I recall. Later I can take more time to validate what is said here, and follow the links, but as I recall, it all pans out (and I'll acknowledge it if it doesn't - I won't change the subject).

Doubting is thinking: No, you can't power an EV fleet by shutting the refineries down (updated)

Skip to "Problem #3: all that "energy" refineries use is NOT electricity"

Reader's Digest version- the commonly quoted 6kWh/gallon is NOT electricity available to use in an EV - it is mostly fossil fuel energy, stated in kWh, and some/most of that might be a waste, or low level petroleum product. Yes, they burn petroleum waste/low-value products to create the heat for refining. Doesn't that make sense? Heating with electricity is expensive. You have an NG furnace in your home, not electric, right? Same reason.

So see if those numbers add up for you.

BACK ON TOPIC: Regardless, this is getting far afield from the VW thread topic. I made the case that if people are looking for VW to compensate for the additional NOx these cars have/will produce (a reasonable request, I think), than shouldn't we hold EVs to the same standard, if their NOx and SOx emissions exceed standards of other vehicles? They aren't violating any laws (but IMO, that's an omission of the law), but the effect on the environment is similar (some adjustment, maybe, for the non-local power plants. But that doesn't adjust it to zero either.

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Old 09-27-2015, 11:34 AM   #169
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Originally Posted by Disappointed View Post
Wouldn't the management be curious as to how their engineers were able to achieve such superior performance than their peers (MBZ, BMW, etc.), at least to reward them for their intelligence?
Bernie Madoff was able to achieve consistent positive returns even during the melt down, some people were wondering how, the feeder funds who benefited from the inflow of funds never wanted to ask the question.
The CEO claimed no knowledge? How about other car manufacturers, were they not curious as to how VW achieved the result or they believed that VW engineers were so superior?
That certainly wasn't the culture at the MegaMotors where I worked. I recall being asked why a competitor was better for a performance attribute and my team did a detailed tear down on both vehicles with a parts display and detailed costing on the affected components. The competition had spent about three times as much to achieve that attribute level. My management's response? "Well, we're smarter than them aren't we?"
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Old 09-27-2015, 12:24 PM   #170
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IIRC, there simply isn't enough electricity generated on the refinery grids to justify that number. Can you back up the claim with numbers, not just a diagram that says "I said so"?

You didn't answer my question about marginal power, you diverted to another topic (kWh to refine gasoline). And used the strategy you accused me of - that you can find stuff on the internet to support any view. So show us the backup data//numbers/logic to your claim.
I am getting dizzy going in circles. My point about 'finding stuff on the internet to support any view' wasn't directed at one POV or another, just the idea that anyone can probably find a credible link to support any view.

The diagram came from a lengthy article, but since you've suggested repeatedly you do your own math, I didn't bother with the link (and since you've categorically dismissed the last several I offered). That and your challenge to check your math that I haven't seen, and don't care to. You're welcome to your POV. We disagree, life goes on...

I didn't answer your question about marginal power, because you seem to have missed the point. There is most certainly electricity used to run refineries and distribute gasoline, that largely offsets the electricity used to charge EVs. Less gasoline, more EV charging if that's not clear.
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Old 09-27-2015, 01:01 PM   #171
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I am getting dizzy going in circles. My point about 'finding stuff on the internet to support any view' wasn't directed at one POV or another, just the idea that anyone can probably find a credible link to support any view.

The diagram came from a lengthy article, but since you've suggested repeatedly you do your own math, I didn't bother with the link (and since you've categorically dismissed the last several I offered). That and your challenge to check your math that I haven't seen, and don't care to. You're welcome to your POV. We disagree, life goes on...

I didn't answer your question about marginal power, because you seem to have missed the point. There is most certainly electricity used to run refineries and distribute gasoline, that largely offsets the electricity used to charge EVs. Less gasoline, more EV charging if that's not clear.
Sorry, I did miss the point at first. It took me a minute (and after my post) to make the connection that the electricity you claim is used for refining gasoline would be eliminated and then available for an EV w/o having to ADD that energy marginally to the grid.

But it sure would be helpful to have the sources of data and the calculations on that 6 kWh/gallon number instead of just a claim and a "WTF?" graphic.

It won't be until this evening that I might have a chance to double-triple check my numbers, but my first pass shows just what I recalled - there just isn't enough electricity produced in the US to reasonably support your claim.

If you (or anyone else) wants to look into it before I get back to it - just look up # of barrels refined in the US per day, multiply by gallons/barrel, multiply by 6 kWh/gallon for daily electrical energy consumption that refineries would use. Unless I slipped up and moved a decimal point, it looks like refineries would need to be responsible for ALL the electricity that the industrial sector consumes. Not very realistic, is it?

A couple links with data:

Table 5.9 Refinery Capacity and Utilization, 1949-2011

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electr...ity_generation

I'll share my numbers after I check them....

Oh, also - when oil is refined, you get gasoline, diesel, kerosene (jet fuel), and some other products. Do you know how that figures in the your chart? Is 6 kWh only for gasoline? More total power to get the diesel, etc? Or did they assign ALL the kWh to refine a barrel to the gasoline portion?

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Old 09-27-2015, 01:27 PM   #172
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Lots of good data here (general website) even if you don't appreciate their articles/conclusions.

The 6 kWh electricity to refine gasoline would drive an electric car the same distance as a gasser? | The Long Tail Pipe
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Old 09-28-2015, 09:41 AM   #173
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Lots of good data here (general website) even if you don't appreciate their articles/conclusions.

The 6 kWh electricity to refine gasoline would drive an electric car the same distance as a gasser? | The Long Tail Pipe
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Originally Posted by Midpack View Post
Lots of good data here (general website) even if you don't appreciate their articles/conclusions.

The 6 kWh electricity to refine gasoline would drive an electric car the same distance as a gasser? | The Long Tail Pipe
Just so you don't think I forgot about you ...

I was able to 2x-3x check my numbers last night, but I have not had time to put them in as concise and clear a presentation format as I would like. Hopefully later today, but I do have some much higher priority personal stuff going on, so please bear with me.

But to not leave you hanging, I'll provide the gist of it, and detail the numbers later (the numbers themselves are fairly straightforward, the explanations of them is what I'm working on). But after reading through the link you gave, I actually got confused if you were trying to support the claim that 6 kWh of electricity is used to refine a gallon of gas, and that can propel an EV about as far as the gas would propel an ICE, or if you were trying to counter it, and use it as an example of 'you can find support for any view'... The whole “WTF?” part comes across as pretty snarky and superior, unless I'm misreading that as well.

But since you said (bold mine):
Quote:
There is most certainly electricity used to run refineries and distribute gasoline, that largely offsets the electricity used to charge EVs.
I'll go with the 'support' angle.

It is pretty easy to disprove the statement, and I'm saddened/disappointed that someone as brilliant and respected as Elon Musk is repeating a statement that is clearly rubbish, and misleads (either purposely, or through ignorance/inattentiveness) the public on these important topics. And that leads to “appeal to authority” false arguments all over the Internet. And Elon clearly assigns this to "refining" in the links (though they mostly talked about a 5 kWh figure, not 6, but close).

Bottom line, as I expected, there simply isn't enough electricity generated in the US to support the claim. That claim results in a Terawatt-hour figure that exceeds ALL the electricity allocated to ALL industrial processes combined (or about 25% of total electrical generation). Simply not rational. You can try to break down numbers and energy assignments any way you want, but that much electricity simply cannot be accounted for.

Now, trying to get an accurate figure is really getting into the weeds, but it is clear that the 6 kWh figure is way overstated. To dig deeper, you get into complications such as:
Hmmm, aren't some of the byproducts of refining sent to power plants to generate electricity? How to account for that?

What is the electrical energy delta between a hybrid and an EV (lithium battery production for example), amortized over their useful lives?
And probably many more. But I'll get the 6 kWh numbers posted later.

STAYING ON TOPIC: Yes, this still gets back to the thread topic - if we are looking to VW for compensatory payments (separate from 'fines') for the excess NOx their non-compliant vehicles emit, isn't it reasonable to look to EVs and understand how much NOx and SOx they are responsible for, and shouldn't they have to pay to reduce these pollutants, in the same way that we pay for the pollution controls on our non-EV cars?

Which brings me to another point I repeatedly make. A “gate” is just a bad way to manage things. Emissions should not be pass/fail (samclem touched on this), but a car maker could have to pay for X level of emissions. The lower they are, the less they pay, the more popular the car could be (depending on costs to lower emissions). It would motivate further reductions and cost effectiveness beyond the 'gate', and reward small, efficient cars over larger ones that simply 'pass'. And heavy emissions could be so expensive, there would be virtually no vehicles like that on the road. In this case, averages do count.

Imagine if adding another $10 of equipment lowered emissions another 20% beyond the pass/fail level. Today, a manufacturer would not spend the $10 - they passed, and that's all they care about.

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Old 09-28-2015, 10:11 AM   #174
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Be sure to factor in night time/off peak EV charging, as many owners charge at night when demand is down (some chargers have timers to be sure of it). In those (many) cases, there is no additional/marginal power demand. Leveling of demand is a benefit to power plants as you probably know. There are all sorts of sources, but I will let you search for one you agree with, since you summarily dismiss links I provide (without a full read in some cases).

I regret the WTF? - it was part of the graphic I linked to, but I should have taken the time to crop it out. That author was simply saying if the amount of electricity used to refine gasoline for an ICE was roughly equal to the amount of electricity to charge an EV and drive roughly the same number of miles, it makes more sense to just charge an EV than to bother with using electricity to refine crude into gasoline. That doesn't even factor in all the other huge energy demand in refining aside from electricity and crude procurement and gasoline distribution costs.
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Old 09-28-2015, 10:37 AM   #175
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Be sure to factor in night time/off peak EV charging, as many owners charge at night when demand is down (some chargers have timers to be sure of it). In those (many) cases, there is no additional/marginal power demand. Leveling of demand is a benefit to power plants as you probably know. There are all sorts of sources, but I will let you search for one you agree with, since you summarily dismiss links I provide (without a full read in some cases).
I don't 'summarily dismiss links you provide', but if those links (and your explanations) don't include sources and the background to the calculations so that I can fully understand how they got to their conclusion, it ends up being a "take it on faith" proposition, and I'm not interested in that - both sides have plenty of 'faith' - I need to dig deeper. The Elon Musk numbers and quotes came from your links.

And briefly, just because demand is lower at night, it doesn't necessarily hold that there routinely is unused excess available to charge EVs. Coal plant output can be lowered, just not quickly. It is my understanding that they do lower the output of the coal plants at night. The power to charge EVs must come from somewhere.

We might be seeing some occasional periods, in some areas, where wind power at night exceeds demand (sorry, no data/links at the moment - I'm just talking generally/casually for now). It would be great if EVs could suck up that excess. But my gut tells me (subject to data when/if I can find it), that if you take this to the 'big picture', and when enough EVs to actually make a dent in something like total gas/diesel consumption are on-line, that there isn't going to be enough excess to matter much. It's too hard to match supply/demand with an intermittent source, and it gets expensive. So a couple nights of low/no wind need to be back-filled with fossil. And if you have enough wind on an average night to charge those EVs, you will have excess on above average nights (roughly half the time!) - energy not consumed and paid for makes it harder to recapture the capital investment for wind. That raises the cost of renewable energy.

Realistically, everything tells me we are a very long way from having enough clean energy for EVs. So far, that I suspect the solution will be something else.

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Old 09-28-2015, 11:09 AM   #176
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It seems that wind can generate a good amount of power at times...

Here they were 'selling' at a negative rate....

Texas electricity goes negative: Wind power was so plentiful one night that producers paid the state to take it.
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Old 09-28-2015, 11:17 AM   #177
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Lots of good data here (general website) even if you don't appreciate their articles/conclusions.

The 6 kWh electricity to refine gasoline would drive an electric car the same distance as a gasser? | The Long Tail Pipe

I will not go into the calculations etc. to try and figure out who what and where.... I will just go to what is plainly in front of me.... the price I have to pay...

First, we will state that the price we have to pay for things is a market price that includes all input, including electricity used to refine...

We will also have to agree that the EV market is subsidized making it less costly to a consumer....


Now, I can pay a good amount of money over and above an EV car, drive it for 100K miles using 'cheap' electricity and still pay more than an ICE car and all that gas that I used...

So, in the end I really do not care if it is 6kWH or .9kWH or anything in between.... the cost of an EV is still higher than the cost of an ICE...

And back to the thread.... the cost of buying a diesel is higher than the cost of an ICE even when you include the gas... and now we know they pollute more....
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Old 09-28-2015, 11:20 AM   #178
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Perhaps we should have a separate, permanent, ongoing thread about electric cars, electrical grid management and government subsidies........
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Old 09-28-2015, 11:25 AM   #179
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Perhaps we should have a separate, permanent, ongoing thread about electric cars, electrical grid management and government subsidies........
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Old 09-28-2015, 12:22 PM   #180
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Perhaps we should have a separate, permanent, ongoing thread about electric cars, electrical grid management and government subsidies........
+2

(I believe this is a topic that never ends once it is started)
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