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Old 09-21-2015, 04:59 PM   #21
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I just came back from TotalWine. I went there to look at some bottles that I reseached online, and just ordered a few cases for my daughter's wedding. I am going to sample them to make sure there are no surprises. And I even picked up a bottle of Cognac and one aņejo Tequila for myself.
...
Most excellent plan! You need some help checking them out?
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Old 09-21-2015, 05:11 PM   #22
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Thank you for the help, but I think I can manage.

I still have to think of some food to make, for when I call the kids over to taste the wine. I need to go get some lamb shanks. When I mentioned to my son-in-law about the stewed lamb shank, he was salivating. He still remembered the lamb chop I made at an earlier dinner.

By the way, I have been going to Bevmo, but just recently checked out Total Wine. I like the wider selection at Total Wine.
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Old 09-21-2015, 05:18 PM   #23
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The idea of no 10% drop in a while is simply a technicality.

Certainly in August 2015, the 10% drop was breeched by US total stock market, US S&P500 index and Total international stock market.

In October 2014, international stock index was down 10% from an intermediate high and US stocks were down 7.5%.

In June 2012, international stock index was down 15% from an intermediate high in April, while domestic stocks were down more than 9%.

Fall of 2011 had the down 20% to 26% markets.

So while the news media may have selected memory, we don't have to believe them.

The current market seems pretty typical to me.
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Old 09-21-2015, 06:06 PM   #24
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"Yes, I know the current (bear?) market has me frustrated"

**I did notice the question mark behind (bear?)**
Here's one definition of a bear market.

Although figures can vary, for many, a downturn of 20% or more in multiple broad market indexes, such as the Dow Jones industrial average and/or the Standard & Poor's 500 index over at least a two month period, is considered an entry into a bear market.

According to this definition, we aren't in a bear market, & I would tend to agree.


"My view is that the overall economy is improving and that pent-up good news on earnings, performance and other factors would eventually mitigate the bad news"

No disrespect, but how long have we been hearing that 'the economy is improving' ?

We've had historical low interest rates in most of the world for the past seven years. With that enticement for people to spend, how is it going to get better, how are earnings going to improve, especially if the fed starts raising rates at some point ?

As far as 'good earnings' I have to disagree. Of course there are companies out there whose earnings have exploded over the past 7-10 years. Netflix, Priceline, Chipotle, Apple, etc.

But the vast majority of large US multinationals haven't.
I don't have any figures to prove this, but It seems a lot of large multinational US corporations, have used share buybacks over the last 7 or 8 years to 'artificially inflate' earnings growth.


Another concern I have is the percentage of Americans that pay Federal taxes.

For tax year 2011, the non-partisan Tax Policy Center estimates that only 54 percent of Americans will pay Federal income tax. **I realize this is three tax years removed, and things could have improved by this point**
Source: Is it true that only 53 percent of Americans pay income tax? - HowStuffWorks

I don't have the proper vocabulary to try and explain what this means.
I only know it's probably not a good sign when 46.00% of 1040 filers get back as much, or more than they paid in.





Interest rates:

For 32 years, interest rates have been on a downward trend.


In those 32 years, US companies downsized, & outsourced overseas.
Plus throw in the technology factor ,especially in manufacturing & it adds to more unemployed/underemployed.

Corporate America has had the 'perfect storm' for earnings growth over the past 32 years. And I feel that's coming to an end now.
I'm not saying interest rates are going to 1970s levels,. I hope they never get close to that, but I do believe they'll be going up in the near future

My simple opinion is this. The great productivity boom is over & earnings peaked a couple years ago.

I'm not trying to be a Donny Downer, I'm not going to get political, & I'm definitely not saying the market is going to crash, or has to crash.
My prediction is that the major averages, Dow Jones , S&P 500, & the NASDAQ, will probably go nowhere for the following 3 to 5 years.

Of course, there's always going to be individual companies & sectors that do much better than the averages.
And if you're good enough to pick them, you'll do very well.

As for me, I continue to hold stodgy old companies like, AT&T, Colgate, Johnson & Johnson, 3-M, Emerson, Eli Lilly, Kraft Heinz, etc.
Dividends, dividends, dividends!!

I also own Novartis, which I like to call the Johnson & Johnson of Europe,
a couple healthcare related REIT's, & a couple healthcare related ETF's.

As a matter of fact, I added some Fidelity MSCI Health Care ETF (FHLC) today. It was down around 2.00% this AM, and I couldn't figure out why ? Later I saw that Hillary had tweeted something about high drug prices & it send those stocks down.

All this being said, I hope I'm dead wrong & all the major averages skyrocket the next 3 to 5 years.

Good luck to all
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Old 09-21-2015, 06:24 PM   #25
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No serious worries now. 2016 will be fine. Beware 2017/2018.

Presidential Elections and Market Troughs

Presidential Term Month and Year
of Market Bottom Year During
Presidential Term
When Market Bottomed
1942 – 1944 4/42 2nd Year
1945 – 1948 10/46 2nd Year
1949 – 1952 6/49 1st Year
1953 — 1956 9/53 1st Year
1957 – 1960 10/57 1st Year
1961 – 1964 6/62 2nd Year
1965 – 1968 10/66 2nd Year
1969 – 1972 5/70 2nd Year
1973 – 1976 10/74 2nd Year
1977 – 1980 3/78 2nd Year
1981 – 1984 8/82 2nd Year
1985 – 1988 12/87 3rd Year
1989 – 1992 10/90 2nd Year
1993 – 1996 4/94 2nd Year
1997 – 2000 8/98 2nd Year
2001 – 2004 10/02 2nd Year
Average = 1.87 years into presidential term
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Old 09-21-2015, 06:46 PM   #26
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ownyourfuture View Post
"Yes, I know the current (bear?) market has me frustrated"

**I did notice the question mark behind (bear?)**
Here's one definition of a bear market.

Although figures can vary, for many, a downturn of 20% or more in multiple broad market indexes, such as the Dow Jones industrial average and/or the Standard & Poor's 500 index over at least a two month period, is considered an entry into a bear market.

According to this definition, we aren't in a bear market, & I would tend to agree.


No disrespect, but how long have we been hearing that 'the economy is improving' ?
Right. What I meant was that we might be entering a bear market. Hence the question mark; I wasn't clear.

I not only hear the economy is improving but I also see it in companies that are generally beating estimates and overall positive conf calls; both secular and cyclicals like your "AT&T, Colgate, Johnson & Johnson, 3-M, Emerson, Eli Lilly, Kraft Heinz,".
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Old 09-22-2015, 10:18 AM   #27
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See this regarding the accuracy of the most recent "expert" predictions, then question your own:

The "Economissed" Track Record Revisited: Last Month, 82% Of "Experts" Expected A September Fed Hike | Zero Hedge
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Old 09-22-2015, 10:41 AM   #28
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Upfront:
Yes, I know the current (bear?) market has me frustrated
Yes, I know that the 130 year trend is a steady upward move
Yes, I know that thinking "this time is different" is suicide
Yes, I know the following is more of a cathartic rant than a question.

But. Seems that over the past year or so, there has been a real trend in the market that overlooks any good news and just focuses on anything bad.


?

Maybe I just need someone to calm me down..........
Personally, I think that is pretty much the definition of human nature.

Someone will always find something to whine about.
Bad news will always find a willing ear.
Bad news sells.

Spend the next weekend "unplugged". get a good book, throw on your favorite tunes and adapt an "attitude of gratitude".
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Old 09-22-2015, 10:43 AM   #29
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The US market made some very nice gains from 2009-2014. That's 6 up years in a row, which is pretty unusual. The last year or so has been basically flat. Personally, I expect the next few years to be flat or down, as I don't think a whole lot of stocks are overvalued, and the economy is strong enough to support significant gains from here. And the continued FED manipulation of the market is not helping. As a result, my exposure to the market is pretty low right now. Sure, it's market timing, but it is what I am comfortable with. YMMV.
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Old 09-22-2015, 10:46 AM   #30
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Personally, I think that is pretty much the definition of human nature.

Someone will always find something to whine about.
Bad news will always find a willing ear.
Bad news sells.

Spend the next weekend "unplugged". get a good book, throw on your favorite tunes and adapt an "attitude of gratitude".
That's true, but it seems that the market had always been able to see through the noise. Now it seems that it's distracted by the noise.

(But I did turn off the TV this morning and listened to some music!)
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Old 09-26-2015, 09:50 AM   #31
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The US market made some very nice gains from 2009-2014. That's 6 up years in a row, which is pretty unusual. The last year or so has been basically flat. Personally, I expect the next few years to be flat or down, as I don't think a whole lot of stocks are overvalued, and the economy is strong enough to support significant gains from here. And the continued FED manipulation of the market is not helping. As a result, my exposure to the market is pretty low right now. Sure, it's market timing, but it is what I am comfortable with. YMMV.
I think the stock market is overvalued, atleast on a historical level. It is not wildly overvalued but it is overvalued. It has come down a little. I expect next year to be flat or down so that the PE ratios can start to be in line with the earnings. Right now it is a little out of whack. I still buy every opportunity I get as long term I like stocks. I think the PE ratios of the SP500 is 19.5 right now. To get to 15 or 16 PE ,earnings are going to have to pick up or we are going to experience a bigger downturn.
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Old 09-26-2015, 11:17 AM   #32
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Old 09-26-2015, 12:38 PM   #33
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I should have warned you all of this downturn. I knew that it was coming. You see, I just ERd August 1st. I wouldn't stand behind me at the checkout counter at the supermarket either.


I also subscribe the "Ostrich" theory of portfolio monitoring. I look at it when its going up, and ignore it on the way down. Needless to say, I haven't looked at it in a while.
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Old 09-26-2015, 01:56 PM   #34
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Yes, when we ER'd in April, my wife's 401K was around $635,000, now it is $590,000. 100% Vanguard index funds, and not even anything outrageous like international or energy.

A year's worth of living expenses vanish in just one account. A little scary, but man cannot live on bonds alone (especially sub 2% bonds).
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Old 09-26-2015, 07:36 PM   #35
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I should have warned you all of this downturn. I knew that it was coming. You see, I just ERd August 1st. I wouldn't stand behind me at the checkout counter at the supermarket either.


I also subscribe the "Ostrich" theory of portfolio monitoring. I look at it when its going up, and ignore it on the way down. Needless to say, I haven't looked at it in a while.

Me too!


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Old 09-28-2015, 01:06 PM   #36
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If this keeps up I'm moving 10% into stocks end of year.

Finally a chance to move a bit closer to target allocation!
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Old 09-28-2015, 01:13 PM   #37
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Buying opportunity of the year. Stocks selling at 2014 prices.
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Old 09-28-2015, 02:00 PM   #38
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Buying opportunity of the year. Stocks selling at 2014 prices.
But in 2014 they were going for 2018 prices... :-)
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Old 09-28-2015, 02:27 PM   #39
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I will check the Shiller PE10 tomorrow after today's fall. I expect it will still be higher than "normal"; maybe I should say higher than "mean".
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Old 09-28-2015, 02:58 PM   #40
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"Cheap" can always get cheaper ... I wouldn't jump back in just yet....


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