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Old 09-28-2015, 03:08 PM   #41
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This is really starting to hurt a bit.


It's funny. When market is hitting all time highs there are worries about retiring thinking it will go down once you pull the plug and your sequence of returns risk is high. But when the market is correcting there are worries about retiring cause your portfolio is actually getting pounded. It's not theoretical. It's occurring.


Either way too much worry. This retiring thing is not for the timid. It aint easy.


Muir
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Old 09-28-2015, 04:39 PM   #42
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I am kind of glad we have not sold our (paid for) home yet. If I had had that money a few weeks ago, I would already be losing it in the market.

Maybe by the time we sell, I can buy SPY for $150.
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Old 09-28-2015, 04:54 PM   #43
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I am kind of glad we have not sold our (paid for) home yet. If I had had that money a few weeks ago, I would already be losing it in the market.

Maybe by the time we sell, I can buy SPY for $150.
I'm scheduled to DCA part of the money from selling my house last month, on Wednesday. Hmm! Looks pretty good to me. But then again, with my luck the market will bounce back with a vengeance by then.

Either way, that's the plan.
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Old 09-28-2015, 06:49 PM   #44
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It's funny, I see all the posts about the market ignoring good news and only reacting to the bad. But for the past 3 years or so all I could see was the market going up on bad news, no news, and good news. But it really would jump up on bad news. I don't think there's really any correlation between the news and the market's direction. It's always made me laugh to listen to the heads "explaining" why the market did whatever it did that day. No matter what it did, they always "know" the reason. I'm not sure why they aren't all rich and retired.
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Old 09-28-2015, 09:41 PM   #45
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I just started some tax loss harvesting today. Almost anything with oil or emerging markets looks like a good candidate.
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Old 09-29-2015, 06:19 AM   #46
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It's always made me laugh to listen to the heads "explaining" why the market did whatever it did that day.
An "financial" newspaper out here hit new lows last week: first they were claiming that the market would fall once the Fed raises interest rates. Then, when the Fed didn't raise rates the markets fell anyway.

Now they are claiming the markets are falling because the Fed didn''t raise interest rates (supposedly it indicates a weak economy etc ..)
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Old 09-29-2015, 06:35 AM   #47
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Even after yesterday's decline

Shiller PE10 at 23.89
Mean 16.63
Median 16.01

S&P500 PE 18.96
Mean 15.55
Median 14.60

A simple calculation (18.96-15.55)/15.55*100 = 21.92% over-valued


But it's still painful to watch money evaporate, so a good thing to do is to look away till Jan 1 or whenever it is time to re-balance.
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Old 09-29-2015, 10:32 AM   #48
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PE10 won't move much in a day, since it is a 10 year average.
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Old 09-29-2015, 10:35 AM   #49
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But it's still painful to watch money evaporate, so a good thing to do is to look away till Jan 1 or whenever it is time to re-balance.
Good thing quarterly dividends come in tomorrow night. Some salvation there. (but not much) The "income property" (equities) value has dropped but at least the rent keeps coming in!
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Old 09-29-2015, 10:53 AM   #50
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By design, we've got several years worth of funds earmarked for withdrawals in cash or guaranteed (low yield) funds. Up until recently I was not sure if that was smart or not... now 1.75% return on the guaranteed funds looks pretty fabulous. Still wonder what the current thrashing of equities means for us down the road. Probably could re-think taking SS at FRA and push out needing to sell any stocks for quite a few years, but you know what? I'm starting to think this time actually might just be "different", as in recovery might be painfully slow. But I guess first things first, we have yet to find solid enough footing to have any confidence of knowing where the bottom is.
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Old 09-29-2015, 11:02 AM   #51
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now 1.75% return on the guaranteed funds looks pretty fabulous.
Exactly. I paid off a $188K mortgage last year at 5.5%, and that seems like a great investment too. Working on another $160K to be paid off by FIRE date next year.

Of course, this may be the market correction we all laugh about in a few months. (I think Japan has been waiting to start laughing at their bear market)
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Old 09-29-2015, 11:22 AM   #52
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By design, we've got several years worth of funds earmarked for withdrawals in cash or guaranteed (low yield) funds. Up until recently I was not sure if that was smart or not... now 1.75% return on the guaranteed funds looks pretty fabulous.
+1

In the same boat, cash available for several years.

I had been wondering about the wisdom of lots of cash but I am not doing so any longer. It reduces stress significantly.
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Old 09-29-2015, 11:34 AM   #53
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I'm scheduled to DCA part of the money from selling my house last month, on Wednesday. Hmm! Looks pretty good to me. But then again, with my luck the market will bounce back with a vengeance by then.

Either way, that's the plan.
The whee-oracle of e-r.org has spoken! Watch out for Wednesday!
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Old 09-29-2015, 02:15 PM   #54
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Carl Icahn put up a video. He talks about a bubble in high yield bonds (and other stuff - sorry for that).

Carl Icahn

You may like him (or not), but he is a smart guy.
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Old 09-29-2015, 03:06 PM   #55
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PE10 won't move much in a day, since it is a 10 year average.
The "E" is a 10 year average, but the "P" is the current price. So, yes, it can move a lot in a day.
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Old 09-30-2015, 05:49 AM   #56
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How much is a lot as defined for a day? I only look at the month end data.
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Old 09-30-2015, 06:58 AM   #57
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CNBC -- yes I know, I know -- said there is capitalmpreservation going on.
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Old 09-30-2015, 08:01 AM   #58
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How much is a lot as defined for a day? I only look at the month end data.
Anywhere from -10% to +10%

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...%26P_500_Index
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Old 09-30-2015, 09:42 PM   #59
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An "financial" newspaper out here hit new lows last week: first they were claiming that the market would fall once the Fed raises interest rates. Then, when the Fed didn't raise rates the markets fell anyway.

Now they are claiming the markets are falling because the Fed didn''t raise interest rates (supposedly it indicates a weak economy etc ..)
There's some truth to it. The market did not tank until Yellen gave a press conference explaining her reason for not raising interest rates. I did not listen to the entire speech, but it scared people into thinking "maybe the Fed knows something I don't". Then, they sold.
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Old 10-05-2015, 09:32 AM   #60
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Still a roller coaster, including Friday being the biggest swing in 4 years.
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