Thoughts on TESLA

[bobandsherry]

It sure isn’t positive news.

I guess it could be he just didn't find it to be the right fit or that Musk is just an A-hole to work with/for.

Or could be he found something that gave him a severe case of angina

 

[ERD50]

It can be informative to set the dates on a google search to limit the search to articles more than a year old:

https://electrek.co/2017/08/03/tesla-model-3-elon-musk-production-reservations/

August 3, 2017 - "Tesla Model 3: Elon Musk has ‘zero doubt’ about 10,000 units per week in 2018"

emph mine...

What people should absolutely have zero concern about, and I mean 0, is that Tesla will achieve a 10,000 unit production week by the end of next year. […] I think people should really not have any concerns that we won’t reach that outcome from a production rate.”

https://www.investopedia.com/musk-t...m_source=yahoo&utm_medium=referral&yptr=yahoo

Feb 20, 2019 - "Musk: Tesla Will Produce 10,000 Cars a Week by End of 2019"

Confidence is high that production will now grow to 7,000 vehicles per week by the end of the year and 10,000 per week when its factory in Shanghai is ready.

Zero doubt of 10,000/week by EOY2018, but now "Confidence is high" to hit a lower number (7,000/week) a year later?

I actually am getting tempted to short TSLA to the amount that it is invested in my index funds. What kind of BS is this?

-ERD50

 

[Chuckanut]

Yeah, and as I mentioned earlier it's not just S&P comparison, but look at how GM performed over that same time period.

Ah, yes. GM. The car company that went bankrupt 10 years ago and would not be here if the Feds had not engineered their bail out plans

Any company can be a success if allowed in a very rushed bankruptcy to basically wipe out the people it owes money to. I wonder how well GM would have done if they had to pay back the bondholders? Not very good, I think.

It's easy to do well financially when you can tell a person you owe $70,000 that she will only get about $200 of your stock in payment. Or a guy you owe $65,000 that he will only get $167 of stock.

Bondholder furious over GM bankruptcy – American Morning - CNN.com Blogs

Roberts: No, you're a school teacher, we should point out. So $70,000 is a huge amount of money to you. June: It is. It is. And it's a shame. I mean what they're doing, they're saying 10% and this and that. I don't know what they're doing. People out there have saved their money. We've done the right thing. I pay my bills and here all of a sudden, they want to give me two shares. 140 shares of stock.
Roberts: And that stock, all in total is worth about what, $200?
June: I believe so right now.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/gm-bondholder-says-deal-stinks/

After substituting real-world math for corporate calculus, my swap would have been to cash in promissory notes worth a former principal of $62,500 and current market value of $4,000 in exchange for 140 shares of GM common stock. It's hard to know what that future, post-swap stock price would be -- but at GM stock's price this morning of $1.19, my holdings in GM's future would be worth $167.

Yes, I realize the $7000 tax credit (which I oppose) is a great help to all EV car companies. Is it as bad a subsidy as the drubbing GM bond holders got? I'll let each person decide that on his or her own.

I have no idea if Tesla will succeed or fail. I have no skin the game since I do not own the stock or an automobile. But, comparing them to a company that went bankrupt and whose restructuring caused so many people so much pain, is not a good idea, IMHO

 

[Lakewood90712]

I guess it could be he just didn't find it to be the right fit or that Musk is just an A-hole to work with/for.

Or could be he found something that gave him a severe case of angina

I can't imagine someone going in at that level being surprised by the real Elon Musk.

Perhaps it was other things inside Tesla................. Like what happened in Raiders of the Lost Ark when the Nazi captors opened up the Ark.

 

[ls99]

Don't worry, be happy.
The good news keep on coming. While the author of the article is clearly no fan of Tesla's cars, points he makes are still valid.


"Plugging in is not like filling up. When you put gas in your tank, you aren’t wearing out your car’s transmission. When you put volts into your EV’s battery pack, you are doing pretty much exactly that.
Just sub battery for transmission.
And the more often you do it, the faster the “wear and tear” – the erosion of the battery pack’s capacity to hold a charge. So-called “fast” charging is particularly hard on an EV, by the way.
The more often you do it, the shorter the battery pack’s useful life."


He also discusses how leasing the cars shows "transaction" but not necessarily a sale for profit. Makes comparison to what GM was doing with the Volt which was leased at bizzarely low rates when could not be sold, before killing off the product.



https://www.ericpetersautos.com/2019/02/20/elon-to-give-away-teslas/

 

[ERD50]

Ah, yes. GM. ...

I have no idea if Tesla will succeed or fail. I have no skin the game since I do not own the stock or an automobile. But, comparing them to a company that went bankrupt and whose restructuring caused so many people so much pain, is not a good idea, IMHO

I agree that GM isn't a useful comparison. It is prudent to be diversified, and a broad-based index fund is the best and easiest way to do that. Investing in a specific stock should mean you feel you have a reasonable expectation to beat the market with that stock. Other single stocks are also volatile, so not a great comparison.

....


"Plugging in is not like filling up. When you put gas in your tank, you aren’t wearing out your car’s transmission. When you put volts into your EV’s battery pack, you are doing pretty much exactly that.
Just sub battery for transmission.
And the more often you do it, the faster the “wear and tear” – the erosion of the battery pack’s capacity to hold a charge. So-called “fast” charging is particularly hard on an EV, by the way. ...
The more often you do it, the shorter the battery pack’s useful life."


He also discusses how leasing the cars shows "transaction" but not necessarily a sale for profit. Makes comparison to what GM was doing with the Volt which was leased at bizzarely low rates when could not be sold, before killing off the product.


[URL]https://www.ericpetersautos.com/2019/02/20/elon-to-give-away-teslas/

True in theory, but in reality Tesla's batteries have proven to be very reliable, even when used with a lot of supercharging cycles. They take steps to reduce those aging effects. Unless that changes in the future (I don't expect it to), that article doesn't mean much of anything for Tesla.

I don't know enough about leasing economics to comment on that - we will see.

-ERD50

 

[ls99]

..........


True in theory, but in reality Tesla's batteries have proven to be very reliable, even when used with a lot of supercharging cycles. They take steps to reduce those aging effects. Unless that changes in the future (I don't expect it to), that article doesn't mean much of anything for Tesla.

I don't know enough about leasing economics to comment on that - we will see.

-ERD50

Right. maybe. Tesla is limiting the Supercharger charge current on aging car batteries.
"The Tesla community had another small technical/communication controversy this week that was not unlike the controversy around Tesla’s undisclosed performance restrictions with max power output in March.
We learned this week that the automaker is also limiting the charging rate when Supercharging on vehicles that have accumulated too many DC fast-charge events. Electrek reached out to Tesla to get the official reason behind the change.
Some Tesla owners have been complaining about a slower than usual charge rate at Superchargers on forums and social media for a while now."


Regarding one owner's complaint tesla responded: :According to Tesla engineers, this vehicle has seen significant DC fast charging and is now has permanently restricted DC charging speeds."


The owner's view:"My car has approximately 30,000 miles on it. I regularly use CHADeMo to charge my car, with the occasional Supercharger charge on road trips. On my last road trip, I noticed that my supercharging rate was significantly reduced, usually staying between 75 kw and 90 kw. At first, I thought it was the station, but each Supercharger on my trip had the same behavior. So I bought my car in for service last week."
"I am, to say the least, livid. I am waiting for a call back from management, but presumably, they are going to explain to me that there is nothing they can do. This is akin to the Ludicrous launches being restricted, without warning or any communication from Tesla. But this... is much worse."

https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/thr...sla-will-permanently-throttle-charging.90230/


Thus the "fast charge" is getting slower and longer. Article: May 7, 2017,
https://electrek.co/2017/05/07/tesla-limits-supercharging-speed-number-charges/

 

[ERD50]

Right. maybe. Tesla is limiting the Supercharger charge current on aging car batteries.
"The Tesla community had another small technical/communication controversy this week that was not unlike the controversy around Tesla’s undisclosed performance restrictions with max power output in March.
We learned this week that the automaker is also limiting the charging rate when Supercharging on vehicles that have accumulated too many DC fast-charge events. Electrek reached out to Tesla to get the official reason behind the change.
Some Tesla owners have been complaining about a slower than usual charge rate at Superchargers on forums and social media for a while now."


Regarding one owner's complaint tesla responded: :According to Tesla engineers, this vehicle has seen significant DC fast charging and is now has permanently restricted DC charging speeds."


The owner's view:"My car has approximately 30,000 miles on it. I regularly use CHADeMo to charge my car, with the occasional Supercharger charge on road trips. On my last road trip, I noticed that my supercharging rate was significantly reduced, usually staying between 75 kw and 90 kw. At first, I thought it was the station, but each Supercharger on my trip had the same behavior. So I bought my car in for service last week."
"I am, to say the least, livid. I am waiting for a call back from management, but presumably, they are going to explain to me that there is nothing they can do. This is akin to the Ludicrous launches being restricted, without warning or any communication from Tesla. But this... is much worse."

https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/thr...sla-will-permanently-throttle-charging.90230/


Thus the "fast charge" is getting slower and longer. Article: May 7, 2017,
https://electrek.co/2017/05/07/tesla-limits-supercharging-speed-number-charges/

I think you are reaching a bit. That guy had an unusually high number of fast-charge cycles on his car, and the charge time hit isn't all that much, 30 minutes goes to maybe 38 minutes? Very few people are going to experience this.

That said, the problem will become more common as these cars get age on them. A buyer of a used Tesla should get a history of fast charges, so they know if they are going to be at risk.

-ERD50

 

[NW-Bound]

... Tesla is limiting the Supercharger charge current on aging car batteries...

I was at first dubious about the life of Tesla batteries. Then, I saw more testaments from Tesla owners on the Web about the longevity of the batteries. So, I thought perhaps Panasonic had some secret sauce.

Then, more info came out that the Panasonic batteries used by Tesla do not really have a longer life than that of those made by the competition. Rather, the longer-than-commonly-expected life was achieved by limiting the depth of charge/discharge cycles. And now, the speed of charge is also limited, and that has always been known to be a detrimental effect.

Does this make Tesla look bad? No, not if people understand that other EV makers have the same limitations. Just do not expect miracles, and you will not be disappointed.

 

[NW-Bound]

In a one-upmanship with Tesla, Porsche and BMW collaborated on, and demonstrated a superduper charger that pumped 450 kW into an EV. Holly Molly!

What would not be so impressive is the life of the battery under such fast charge. I guess it does not matter to a billionaire who is going to throw away a car after a few 100s charge cycles. If you do not have this kind of money, you can just keep on dreaming. Or waiting for the new solid-state battery that does not exist yet.

 

[aja8888]

I was at first dubious about the life of Tesla batteries. Then, I saw more testaments from Tesla owners on the Web about the longevity of the batteries. So, I thought perhaps Panasonic had some secret sauce.

Then, more info came out that the Panasonic batteries used by Tesla do not really have a longer life than that of those made by the competition. Rather, the longer-than-commonly-expected life was achieved by limiting the depth of charge/discharge cycles. And now, the speed of charge is also limited, and that has always been known to be a detrimental effect.

Does this make Tesla look bad? No, not if people understand that other EV makers have the same limitations. Just do not expect miracles, and you will not be disappointed.

As battery life issues get better known by John Q. Public, then the long term value of these cars becomes a factor in a purchase (new or used). No wonder a used Leaf can be had for a song. The auto industry may soon be headed for a truly disposable car with high cost battery replacements in the game.

Given this kind of thought process, it's believable that a "no frills", "low initial cost" EV may be a good seller since resale value may not be there and battery replacement is not a cost effective alternative.

 

[bobandsherry]

Ah, yes. GM. The car company that went bankrupt 10 years ago and would not be here if the Feds had not engineered their bail out plans

Let me be clear, I'm no GM fan either. However let's also be clear that without all the various incentives Tesla would most likely not be even a consideration.

But my point was more that GM is just some old stoggie company and yet has still performed quite well since this thread started. This thread originated with the question of if Tesla would be a good investment. As an investor one needs to make a decision based on return. So point being, even putting money in GM would have done well vs. Tesla. So as an investor one would be kicking themselves had they bought and held Tesla.

 

[Totoro]

Rather, the longer-than-commonly-expected life was achieved by limiting the depth of charge/discharge cycles. And now, the speed of charge is also limited, and that has always been known to be a detrimental effect.

I thought thermal management was a big 'secret sauce' item too?

 

[ls99]

Tesla in genearal reminds me of radio personality Paul Harvey's stories, with bits dribbling out.
Guess there is some more wait for "the rest of the story".

 

[ls99]

I think you are reaching a bit. That guy had an unusually high number of fast-charge cycles on his car, and the charge time hit isn't all that much, 30 minutes goes to maybe 38 minutes? Very few people are going to experience this.

That said, the problem will become more common as these cars get age on them. A buyer of a used Tesla should get a history of fast charges, so they know if they are going to be at risk.

-ERD50

I dunno, at 30K miles on a $45to 50K car, or even the $70K version the OEM decides how fast can the owner "refill". Beacause (s)he had too many fast refills. And in other cases did away the Ludicrus (high performance) mode. One of the customers prime bragging rights.



Say you have Corvette and GM decides at 30K miles you have had waaaay too much fun doing burnouts, donuts and other mischief. Thus stressed the engine/tranny/diff so they limit the HP and restrict the filler neck of your gas tank a bit. Would it be a charming concern for their customer care and vehicle longevity?

 

[NW-Bound]

I thought thermal management was a big 'secret sauce' item too?

Nissan's LEAF battery does not use liquid cooling, and it is said that it is the major factor of its reputedly short life. However, the Chevy Volt and later Bolt batteries both have liquid cooling.

The design of the cooling/heating system of the battery is the responsibility of the car maker. Panasonic who makes the Tesla cells and LG who makes the pouch cells for GM take no credit nor blame for thermal problems.

On the other hand, Nissan makes its own battery. Perhaps more than poor thermal management, Nissan battery also has a bad chemical composition. We just don't know.

 

[NW-Bound]

I thought thermal management was a big 'secret sauce' item too?

I forgot to mention this.

Some types of lithium batteries can have a life as short as 500 cycles, if charged to 100% then drained to 0%. That is as tested in the lab, with the cells at room temperature, and typically with a 5-hour charging/discharging time. Some other types can have a life of more than 2000 cycles.

It is by limiting the charge/discharge levels that car makers can get longer useful life out of them. Fast charging/discharging and high temperature will shorten their life.

PS. The end of life is not defined as the battery being dead. Rather, it is typically when the capacity is down to 80% of the original.

 

[NW-Bound]

For my DIY home solar energy storage system, I use a type of lithium battery called lithium-iron-phosphate (LiFePO4).

LiFePO4 is the safest of all lithium battery types, and this type is generally rated for 2000 cycles of 100% charge-discharge. It is not used in EVs, because it does not have an energy density as high as the other types (weights more for the same kWh).

The specific cells that I use are also not suitable for high-power bursts, although some LiFePO4 cells can handle very high currents.

 

[ls99]

For my DIY home solar energy storage system, I use a type of lithium battery called lithium-iron-phosphate (LiFePO4).

LiFePO4 is the safest of all lithium battery types, and this type is generally rated for 2000 cycles of 100% charge-discharge. It is not used in EVs, because it does not have an energy density as high as the other types (weights more for the same kWh).

The specific cells that I use are also not suitable for high-power bursts, although some LiFePO4 cells can handle very high currents.

You might know the answer. I use lithium batteries fro my model helicopter.
On some discussion boards are comments to keep these batteries when fully charged in a fireproof container as for some reason they can self ignite. When discharged there is no such problem.

Any ideas. I know this is off topic.

 

[NW-Bound]

Lithium Polymer (LiPO) batteries are commonly used in drones and RC toys for their high energy density and their ability to handle extremely high load.

Yes, they are a type with a propensity to burst into flame when abused. The internal damage may not manifest right away, but causes the battery to be unstable and explode later.

The risk of bursting into flame gets higher when the battery is fully charged, but some claim it can happen at lower charge levels too. The common requirement for transportation is that a lithium battery of any type to be shipped cannot be fully charged.

The LiFePO4 cells I have can be overcharged to the point of venting, and the manufacturer specification is that they will not ignite.

 

[ls99]

^ Thanks, for explaining the difference.

 

[NW-Bound]

You are welcome.

Here's something I just learned recently. That is charging a lithium battery below freezing (0C) will cause internal damage, and the battery may explode later. Such a battery must be discarded right away.

 

[ncbill]

As battery life issues get better known by John Q. Public, then the long term value of these cars becomes a factor in a purchase (new or used). No wonder a used Leaf can be had for a song. The auto industry may soon be headed for a truly disposable car with high cost battery replacements in the game.

Yep, right now one can get reasonably-priced third-party refurbished battery replacements for a traditional hybrid, e.g. $1,500/$2,000 installed for the 2nd/3rd generation Prius.

But those batteries have a fraction of the capacity of the battery pack in plug-in EV, not to mention a pure EV like any Tesla.

 

[ERD50]

I dunno, at 30K miles on a $45to 50K car, or even the $70K version the OEM decides how fast can the owner "refill". Beacause (s)he had too many fast refills. And in other cases did away the Ludicrus (high performance) mode. One of the customers prime bragging rights.



Say you have Corvette and GM decides at 30K miles you have had waaaay too much fun doing burnouts, donuts and other mischief. Thus stressed the engine/tranny/diff so they limit the HP and restrict the filler neck of your gas tank a bit. Would it be a charming concern for their customer care and vehicle longevity?

All I'm saying is that this issue looks like it would only apply to a very small subset of users, and even that isn't so bad ( a 30 minute charge time going to 40?). Very few are going to Supercharge as often as that guy.

It's not a positive, I'm not trying to spin it (remember, I'm the guy that 'fans' describe as 'never having a positive thing to say, I hate EVs', and on and on). Just that I don't think this is a big problem for EV adoption or a big problem for Tesla.

OK, I think Tesla has plenty of challenges - IMO, this would be about # 137 on the list

-ERD50

 

[samclem]

All I'm saying is that this issue looks like it would only apply to a very small subset of users, and even that isn't so bad ( a 30 minute charge time going to 40?). Very few are going to Supercharge as often as that guy.

But that guy owns the car. He bought it with the understanding that the Supercharger charge rate would be X. Tesla Inc has modified his car, without his consent, so that it only charges at .75 X.

Who really owns the car?

It has certainly lost a lot of resale value unless Tesla deigns to restore it to the capabilities it formerly had. Does he get compensated for that?


True, this is not a giant issue affecting many owners. But the whole principle of remote centralized "tweaking" of cars without the permission (or knowledge) of owners is going to have to be addressed, I would think. It's similar to Apple's decision to slow down the performance of older iPhone models.