Thoughts on TESLA

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Ready said:
I wish that were true, but looking at the prices of used Teslas I just don’t see any bargains out there. The used Model S cars are selling for ridiculously high prices. The used Model 3 cars are listing for above the net price of a new one after incentives, which makes no sense at all.

Perhaps if enough volume of used Model 3’s hit the market in a couple of years this will change. But Tesla has traditionally had a higher than average residual value on used cars.
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Maybe true, but you are only looking at asking prices? I agree that when the volumes increase and other EV cars are more readily available, prices will soften.
 
aja8888 said:
Maybe true, but you are only looking at asking prices? I agree that when the volumes increase and other EV cars are more readily available, prices will soften.
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You are right about that. I know ask prices are just a starting point, but generally the lowest priced ask in a large group of listings represents a fairly close estimate of the realistic selling price and even the lowest priced listing is ridiculously high. Is there anywhere I can go to find out what people who bought used cars really paid for them?
 
Ready said:
I wish that were true, but looking at the prices of used Teslas I just don’t see any bargains out there. The used Model S cars are selling for ridiculously high prices.
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Surprises me, in the EU we have a rather large depreciation for the Model S, both in % and absolute terms.

In line with other cars in that segment, so nothing out of the ordinary in my view. But more than a used Mercedes or BMW.

The Model 3 probably has some weird effects in there with tax incentives and that there is not a real second hand market yet. After two years, when leases start coming up, that should change a bit.

I've seen cars being offered above list prices before only when the waiting list was very large (Porsche, but also the Renault Zoe for a few months).
 
ERD50 said:
Sigh. This is beyond tiresome.

Once again, you make a statement, it is challenged, you then change what you said, but apply our original challenge to your revised statement and claim we are 'wrong' and/or you were 'right'. :facepalm:

I'm not gonna bother with the quotes, if anyone is interested (I don't know why they would be), they can look back at posts 2600, 2585, 2580, 2577, and 2575 and judge for themselves.





You have a lot to learn (and probably "un-learn") as an investor. For your own sake, study up on the term "benchmark".

A benchmark is not chosen in hindsight! :facepalm::facepalm::facepalm:

Performance is relative. Risk is relative. It is all relative. Sigh.

-ERD50
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These comments display where a passive investor does not understand the method of investing in individual stocks. The idea of investing an individual stocks should never be to beat some benchmark, how can one individual stock be compared against a benchmark? The problem with benchmarks is holding period, re-balancing of portfolio holding -- market adjustments (index is adjusted by review of a committee to decide what stocks should be added/dropped and the percentage of one's total portfolio that the investment represents. Indexes are a portfolio method of measurement versus an individual stock position method of measurement.

Tesla as an investment and whether it is successful is not going to be any finite period versus any index. One would evaluate Tesla over whether the investor believes there is a long term value to the products that is not recognized yet by the market, with the expectation that the reward will be earned in the future. This can take many many years to be realized. To the extent that the price is the same today as it was 2 years ago does not mean the individual Tesla stock owner is worse off, for perhaps the investor also invested in Spectrum Pharmaceuticals, which would mean the investor is better off--- if in the estimation of the investor Tesla is continuing on the path that is going to show great increases in value in the future. The relative merits of the S&P500 or any index are meaningless in comparison.

As an individual investor I do not believe in the Tesla story, however Tesla is clearly too early to declare whether this is a successful investment or not were one to have invested on April 4 of 2017. It does however have many of the same elements that made Microsoft, Apple, Amazon and Google great in that there is a single minded CEO who has a different view of the market than standard and will be changing everything about the market he is attacking. Had this been 1999 and Tesla was in the same position TESLA would probably be selling for thousands per share.
 
I agree with some of what you say, and disagree with other points. The disagree first:

Running_Man said:
These comments display where a passive investor does not understand the method of investing in individual stocks. The idea of investing an individual stocks should never be to beat some benchmark, how can one individual stock be compared against a benchmark? The problem with benchmarks is holding period, re-balancing of portfolio holding -- market adjustments (index is adjusted by review of a committee to decide what stocks should be added/dropped and the percentage of one's total portfolio that the investment represents. Indexes are a portfolio method of measurement versus an individual stock position method of measurement. ...
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Disagree. In pretty much all aspects of life, decisions/actions should not be made in a vacuum, they should be made considering the practical alternatives.

And the very practical alternative to individual stocks is to invest in a broad based equity index fund/ETF. It makes no difference if the committee decides to add/drop a stock from that index, you get what you get.

If an individual stock does not outperform the easy-peasy index, what's the point? Why take the specific stock risk?


Where I (sort of) agree:

Running_Man said:
... Tesla as an investment and whether it is successful is not going to be any finite period versus any index. One would evaluate Tesla over whether the investor believes there is a long term value to the products that is not recognized yet by the market, with the expectation that the reward will be earned in the future. This can take many many years to be realized. ...
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Neither you, nor I, nor Frayne (who started this thread with the question back on 04-04-2017) have a crystal ball. So all we can do, in the context of this thread, is evaluate how a purchase at that time would have done compared to the market, at the current time.

Tesla may turn out to be a market beater in the future. If it does, the numbers will show it. I'm highly skeptical of that for many reasons, but I can't and won't rule it out. But it still makes sense to evaluate where we are to date. In fact, I think that like Boho's thread, it will be useful to post at the end of each month the TSLA/VTI relative performance from 4/4/2017.



Running_Man said:
... As an individual investor I do not believe in the Tesla story, however Tesla is clearly too early to declare whether this is a successful investment or not were one to have invested on April 4 of 2017. It does however have many of the same elements that made Microsoft, Apple, Amazon and Google great in that there is a single minded CEO who has a different view of the market than standard and will be changing everything about the market he is attacking. Had this been 1999 and Tesla was in the same position TESLA would probably be selling for thousands per share.
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And I'm certain you could find companies with those qualities that went boots up. But those stories don't make good headlines, and there is that pesky survivor bias effect. So no, that comparison carries no weight with me, and I don't think it should carry any weight with a serious investor. It's similar to the line from every crackpot inventor "they laughed at the Wright Brothers", but of course that is false logic to think that would indicate that anyone who is laughed at will be successful.

-ERD50
 
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bobandsherry said:
Originally Posted by ERD50 View Post
Where are the posts of "those who claim Tesla does not care enough about quality control or workmanship"? Sounds like another straw-man, unless it escapes my memory. Show us.
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I noticed that he once again failed to answer your specific question. Seems he just says anything without any evidence to support what he said.
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Yep. Instead of answer, he diverts to some silly cherry-picked time frame of TSLA/SPY comparison to attempt to make a (non)point (post #2613).

I won't hold my breath waiting for an actual fact-based reply.

In other TSLA news... stock is up the past few days despite some bad news out there. Not sure why? Today's rise seems to be based on another tweet by Elon, under the pseudonym (but verified Musk account) "Elon Tusk" . Mentions there will be news at the close Thursday? Wow, will that sound like stock manipulation to the SEC? He's on thin ice.

-ERD50
 
ERD50 said:
Yep. Instead of answer, he diverts to some silly cherry-picked time frame of TSLA/SPY comparison to attempt to make a (non)point (post #2613).



I won't hold my breath waiting for an actual fact-based reply.



In other TSLA news... stock is up the past few days despite some bad news out there. Not sure why? Today's rise seems to be based on another tweet by Elon, under the pseudonym (but verified Musk account) "Elon Tusk" . Mentions there will be news at the close Thursday? Wow, will that sound like stock manipulation to the SEC? He's on thin ice.



-ERD50
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Yep, nice bounce but not sure why. Today is day the convertible note holders must choose how they want to redeem their March notes that come due. Could be attempt to pursued some to hold?
 
Tesla News

Tesla uptick today could be due to several factors. Recent news:

Rumors that the $35,000 "base" Model 3 may be near:

https://insideevs.com/35000-tesla-model-3-predicted-soon/

The closest thing to real Model 3 competition (Polestar 2) is around the same price as the Model 3 extended range, but with less range (310 to 275). Still a year away and only 50,000 per year production rate. This continues Tesla's dominance in the short term:

https://insideevs.com/polestar-2-ev-debuts-with-estimated-275-mile-range/

Norway is starting get large deliveries of the model 3:

https://insideevs.com/over-500-tesla-model-3-registered-in-norway-so-far-this-month/

Musk will make some news tomorrow. Speculation is that it could be about the Model Y cross-over:

https://electrek.co/2019/02/27/tesla-elon-musk-teases-announcement-thursday-model-y/
 
^ Is this rally the 11th hour attempt to boost price before the March 1 conversion date?
 
oneill225 said:
Tesla uptick today could be due to several factors. Recent news:

Rumors that the $35,000 "base" Model 3 may be near:

https://insideevs.com/35000-tesla-model-3-predicted-soon/ ...
Click to expand...

"Soon". :rolleyes:

That article seems to just rehash rumors and statements that Musk has already made. I don't see that as any stock mover in the past few days.

For me, the big yellow flag with TSLA is that they had a production rate of > 90K in Q4-2018, yet they are only forecasting about that same rate for 2019. And that includes opening up to new markets.



oneill225 said:
...

The closest thing to real Model 3 competition (Polestar 2) is around the same price as the Model 3 extended range, but with less range (310 to 275). Still a year away and only 50,000 per year production rate. This continues Tesla's dominance in the short term:

https://insideevs.com/polestar-2-ev-debuts-with-estimated-275-mile-range/

Norway is starting get large deliveries of the model 3:

https://insideevs.com/over-500-tesla-model-3-registered-in-norway-so-far-this-month/

Musk will make some news tomorrow. Speculation is that it could be about the Model Y cross-over:

https://electrek.co/2019/02/27/tesla-elon-musk-teases-announcement-thursday-model-y/
Click to expand...
The Polestar being a year out and limited production could be boosting TSLA. But other EVs are coming out, and that 400K 2019 number is worrisome. That does not sound like a growth story. Wasn't "exponential growth" being thrown around here?

-ERD50
 
ls99 said:
^ Is this rally the 11th hour attempt to boost price before the March 1 conversion date?
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They need a 20 day average, right? Too late for that, unless he can push TSLA up to what, $7,200/sh?

-ERD50
 
No guesses?
The wait is almost over, even if no one knows what we’re waiting for.

Electric carmaker Tesla suspended all orders on its website and redirected users to a page teasing a mystery announcement CEO Elon Musk said is coming at 5 p.m. ET Thursday.
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105767745-1551385143557screen-shot-2019-02-28-at-3.18.04-pm.jpg


-ERD50
 
OK, now I’m tempted to sell the Lexus and buy a second Tesla. The mid range with premium interior at $40K actually looks like the best buy because for the extra $5K you get the full premium interior plus 44 extra miles of range. Of course if you add the autopilot that does add another $5K.
 
Seems tesla will do away with all showroom sales, online only. I am sure this will be true, reducing manpower.
"n effort to keep costs low, the firm now says it will be shuttering many of its US brick-and-mortar locations.Instead, all orders will be taken online.
‘Shifting all sales online, combined with other ongoing cost efficiencies, will enable us to lower all vehicle prices by about 6% on average, allowing us to achieve the $35,000 Model 3 price point earlier than we expected,’ Tesla said."
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/science...spends-orders-website-ahead-announcement.html


Plus some rumor about same day same hour service in your driveway. Sure.


In other news:"The company, deep in debt as it ramps up production of its popular Model 3 sedan, is due to repay a $920 million convertible bond just a day later."
 
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$35,000 Model 3 - "Any color, as long as it is BLACK"!

Shades of Henry Ford and the Model T. Any color other than Black is a $1,500 to $2,500 upgrade.

So does anyone know - if you don't order AutoPilot, are there any driver assistance features?

-ERD50
 
There is a watered down autopilot for $3K that gives you traffic aware cruise control, but if you don’t at least order that you have no cruise control at all. I believe you will still have blind spot detection and emergency braking, as well as the parking sensors.
 
After market trading opened. The investors don't seem impressed, TSLA was up ~ 1.63% today, and now down ~ 3.40% from that close.

Were they just expecting more? Anything disappointing in this?

-ERD50
 
ERD50 said:
After market trading opened. The investors don't seem impressed, TSLA was up ~ 1.63% today, and now down ~ 3.40% from that close.



Were they just expecting more? Anything disappointing in this?



-ERD50
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Just too much "good news". [emoji39]
 
I’d say they are worried that the latest round of price drops will further erode margins. While the news is good for consumers, it may not be the best news for the company’s financials.
 
Ready said:
There is a watered down autopilot for $3K that gives you traffic aware cruise control, but if you don’t at least order that you have no cruise control at all. I believe you will still have blind spot detection and emergency braking, as well as the parking sensors.
Click to expand...

$35,000, black, and no cruise control at all? Is there any another mainstream car at $35,000 that doesn't include cruise control? I don't buy expensive, or high trim cars, and I honestly don't remember the last car I bought that didn't have cruise control.

I dunno, I expect that a lot of those with M3 reservations were hoping for a fuller featured car at that price. They've already lost $3,250 in tax credits.

-ERD50
 
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